On the Historical Roots of Interstate Conflicts: Evidence From Folklore Motifs

Abstract

We show empirically that interstate conflicts are less likely among countries that share more of their oral tradition. Popular tales and narratives are related to expectations and beliefs about other parties’ behavior, and larger cultural similarities reduce negotiation failures between states. To validate this interpretation, we show that countries with more oral tradition in common are more likely to form military alliances, more likely to participate in the same international organizations, more likely to vote similarly in the UN general assembly, more likely to trade with each other and, in case a conflicts breaks out, more likely to terminate it with a negotiation.