Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to post-conflict countries is difficult. After conflict ends, governments struggle to perfectly enforce the institutions which otherwise shield investors from political instability. Reflecting this governance problem, this article presents a new explanation linking United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations to subnational allocations of FDI in post-conflict countries. I specifically argue that deployments of UN peacekeeping police credibly signal to foreign firms where future political instability is least likely to disrupt their operations. Data from Liberia’s extractive sector support my argument. Increasing the local deployment of UN police encourages foreign firms to establish new natural resource concessions, particularly in areas where the government’s capacity to uphold the rule of law is weak.
AharoniYair. 1966. The Foreign Investment Decision Process. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
2.
AlleeToddPeinhardtClint. 2011. “Contingent Credibility: The Impact of Investment Treaty Violations on Foreign Direct Investment.” International Organization65 (3): 401-432.
3.
AppelBenjamin J.LoyleCyanne E.. 2012. “The Economic Benefits of justice: Post-conflict Justice and Foreign Direct Investment.” Journal of Peace Research49 (5): 685-699.
4.
AutesserreSeverine. 2010. The Trouble With Congo. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
5.
BakakiZorzetaBöhmeltTobias. 2021. “Can UN Peacekeeping Promote Environmental Quality?” International Studies Quarterly65 (4): 881-890.
6.
BeeversMichael D.2018. Peacebuilding and Natural Resource Governance after Armed Conflict: Sierra Leone and Liberia. Springer International Publishing.
7.
BenYishayA.RotbergR.WellsJ.LvZ.GoodmanS.KovacevicL.RunfolaD.. 2017. Geocoding Afrobarometer Rounds 1 - 6: Methodology & Data Quality.Williamsburg, VA: AidData at William & Mary.
8.
BiglaiserGlenStaatsJoseph L.. 2010. “Do Political Institutions Affect Foreign Direct Investment? A Survey of U.S. Corporations in Latin America.” Political Research Quarterly63 (3): 508-522.
9.
BlairGraemeChristensenDarinWirtschafterValerie. 2022. “How Does Armed Conflict Shape Investment? Evidence from the Mining Sector.” The Journal of Politics84 (1): 116-133.
10.
BlairRobert A.2020. Peacekeeping, Policing, and the Rule of Law after Civil War. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
11.
BoveVincenzoDi SalvatoreJessicaEliaLeandro. 2022. “UN Peacekeeping and Households’ Well-Being in Civil Wars.” American Journal of Political Science66 (2): 402-417.
12.
BunteJonas B.DesaiHarshGbalaKanioParksBradleyRunfolaDaniel Miller. 2018. “Natural Resource Sector FDI, Government Policy, and Economic Growth: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Liberia.” World Development107: 151-162.
13.
BusseMatthiasHefekerCarsten. 2007. “Political Risk, Institutions and foreign Direct Investment.” European Journal of Political Economy23 (2): 397-415.
14.
BütheTimMilnerHelen V.. 2008. “The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?” American Journal of Political Science52 (4): 741-762.
15.
CarterDavid B.SignorinoCurtis S.. 2010. “Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data.” Political Analysis18 (3): 271-292.
16.
ChengChristine. 2018. Extralegal Groups in Post-Conflict Liberia: How Trade Makes the State. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
17.
ChoiSeung-Whan. 2016. New Explorations into International Relations: Democracy, Foreign Investment, Terrorism, and Conflict. University of Georgia Press.
ChristensenDarin. 2019. “Concession Stands: How Mining Investments Incite Protest in Africa.” International Organization73 (1): 65-101.
20.
CilDenizFjeldeHanneHultmanLisaNilssonDesirée. 2020. “Mapping Blue Helmets: Introducing the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research57 (2): 360-370.
21.
CinelliCarlosHazlettChad. 2020. “Making Sense of Sensitivity: Extending Omitted Variable Bias.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B82 (1): 39-67.
22.
CollierPaul. 1999. “On the Economic Consequences of Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers51 (1): 168-183.
23.
DiSalvatoreJessica. 2019. “Peacekeepers against Criminal Violence—Unintended Effects of Peacekeeping Operations?” American Journal of Political Science63 (4): 840-858.
24.
DuursmaAllard. 2019. “Obstruction and Intimidation of Peacekeepers: How Armed Actors Undermine Civilian Protection Efforts.” Journal of Peace Research56 (2): 234-248.
25.
FloresThomas EdwardNooruddinIrfan. 2009. “Democracy under the Gun: Understanding Postconflict Economic Recovery.” Journal of Conflict Resolution53 (1): 3-29.
26.
GarrigaAna Carolina. 2022. “International Capital and Subnational Politics: Partisanship and Foreign Direct Investment in Mexican States.” Political Research Quarterly75 (4): 1006-1020.
27.
GarrigaAna CarolinaPhillipsBrian J. 2014. “Foreign Aid as a Signal to Investors: Predicting FDI in Post-conflict Countries.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution58 (2): 280-306.
28.
HoltVictoriaTaylorGlynKellyMax. 2009. “Protecting Civilians in the Context of UN Peacekeeping Operations: Successes, Setbacks and Remaining Challenges.” Independent study jointly commissioned by the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
29.
HowardLise Morjé. 2008. UN Peacekeeping in Civil Wars. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
30.
HowardLise Morjé. 2019. “Peacekeeping is Not Counterinsurgency.” International Peacekeeping26 (5): 545-548.
31.
HultmanLisaKathmanJacob D.ShannonMegan. 2019. Peacekeeping in the Midst of War. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
32.
HultmanLisaKathmanJacobShannonMegan. 2013. “United Nations Peacekeeping and Civilian Protection in Civil War.” American Journal of Political Science57 (4): 875-891.
33.
HunnicuttPatrickNomikosWilliam G.. 2020. “Nationality, Gender, and Deployments at the Local Level: Introducing the RADPKO Dataset.” International Peacekeeping27 (4): 645-672.
34.
IacusStefano M.KingGaryPorroGiuseppe. 2012. “Causal Inference Without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching.” Political Analysis20 (1): 1-24.
35.
JamisonAnne. 2021. Is Violence Bad for Business? The Consequences of Political Violence for Foreign Direct Investment. In Academy of Management Proceedings. Vol. 2021: Academy of Management.
36.
JensenNathan. 2006. Nation-States and the Multinational Corporation: A Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investment. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
37.
JensenNathan. 2008. “Political Risk, Democratic Institutions, and Foreign Direct Investment.” The Journal of Politics70 (4): 1040-1052.
38.
JensenNathan M.MaleskyEdmund J.WalshMatthew. 2015. “Competing for Global Capital or Local Voters? The Politics of Business Location Incentives.” Public Choice164 (3-4): 331-356.
39.
JoshiMadhavQuinnJason Michael. 2018. “Civil war termination and Foreign Direct Investment, 1989–2012.” Conflict Management and Peace Science37 (4): 451-470.
40.
KarimSabrina. 2020. “Relational State Building in Areas of Limited Statehood: Experimental Evidence on the Attitudes of the Police.” American Political Science Review114 (2): 536-551.
41.
KepeThembelaSuahNyanquoi. 2021. “Land and Fragility of Peace in Postwar Liberia: Concessions and Conflicts in the Midst of Poverty.” Journal of Peacebuilding and Development16 (3): 377-381.
42.
KernerAndrew. 2009. “Why Should I Believe You? The Costs and Consequences of Bilateral Investment Treaties.” International Studies Quarterly53 (1): 73-102.
43.
LakeDavid A.2016. The Statebuilder’s Dilemma: On the Limits of Foreign Intervention. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
44.
LiQuan. 2009. “Democracy, Autocracy, and Expropriation of Foreign Direct Investment.” Comparative Political Studies42 (8): 1127.
45.
LiQuanResnickAdam. 2003. “Reversal of Fortunes: Democratic Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Developing Countries.” International Organization57 (1): 175-211.
46.
LuKelanBiglaiserGlen. 2020. “The Politics of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in the USA.” Journal of Asian and African Studies55 (2): 254-272.
47.
MahdaviPaasha. 2020. Power Grab: Political Survival through Extractive Resource Nationalization. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
48.
MihalacheAndreea Stefania.2011. Gambling on Conflict: Foreign Direct Investment and Political Violence in Developing Countries. PhD Thesis. College, MA: State The Pennsylvania State University.
49.
MolooRahimKhachaturianAlex. 2009. “Foreign Investment in a Post-Conflict Environment.” The Journal of World Investment & Trade10 (3): 341-358.
50.
MurdochJames C.SandlerTodd. 2002. “Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers.” Journal of Conflict Resolution46 (1): 91-110.
51.
MvukiyeheEricSamiiCyrus. 2021. “Peacekeeping and Development in Fragile States: Micro-level Evidence from Liberia.” Journal of Peace Research58 (3): 368-383.
52.
NarangNeilStantonJessica A.. 2017. “A Strategic Logic of Attacking Aid Workers: Evidence from Violence in Afghanistan.” International Studies Quarterly61 (1): 38-51.
53.
NeweyWhitney K.WestKenneth D. 1987. “A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica55 (3): 703-708.
54.
NomikosWilliam G.2021. “Peacekeeping and the Enforcement of Intergroup Cooperation: Evidence from Mali.” Journal of Politics84 (1): 194-208.
55.
NorthDouglass C.WeingastBarry R.. 1989. “Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England.” The Journal of Economic History49 (4): 803-832.
56.
PowersMatthewChoiSeung-Whan. 2012. “Does Transnational Terrorism Reduce Foreign Direct Investment? Business-Related Versus Non-business-related Terrorism.” Journal of Peace Research49 (3): 407-422.
57.
PshisvaRonySuarezGustavo A.. 2006. “‘Captive Markets’: The Impact of Kidnappings on Corporate Investment in Colombia.” FEDS Working Paper No. 2006-18.
58.
RaleighClionadhLinkeAndrewHegreHåvardKarlsenJoakim. 2010. “Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research47 (5): 651-660.
59.
RuggeriAndreaDorussenHanGizelisTheodora Ismene. 2016. “On the Frontline Every Day? Subnational Deployment of United Nations Peacekeepers.” British Journal of Political Science48 (4): 1005-1025.
60.
SamfordStevenGómezPriscila Ortega. 2012. “Subnational Politics and Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico.” Review of International Political Economy21 (2): 467-496.
61.
SelayaPabloSunesenEva Rytter. 2012. “Does Foreign Aid Increase Foreign Direct Investment?” World Development40 (11): 2155-2176.
62.
SmidtHannah. 2020. “Mitigating Election Violence Locally: UN Peacekeepers’ Election-Education Campaigns in Côte d’Ivoire.” Journal of Peace Research57 (1): 199-216.
63.
Smith-HöhnJudy. 2010. Rebuilding the Security Sector in Post-conflict Societies: Perceptions from Urban Liberia and Sierra Leone. Geneva, CH: LIT Verlag Münster.
64.
StollenwerkEric. 2018. Measuring Governance and Limited Statehood. In The Oxford Handbook of Governance and Limited Statehood, edited by RisseThomasBörzelTanja A.DraudeAnke, 106-127. Oxford University Press.
65.
TurnerNicholasAginamObijioforPopovskiVesselin. 2008. “Policy Brief: Post-Conflict Countries and Foreign Investment.” United Nations University.
66.
VernonRaymond. 1971. Sovereignty at Bay: The Multinational Spread of U. S. Enterprises. New Orleans, LA: Pelican Books.
67.
WalterBarbara FHowardLise MorjeFortnaV. Page. 2021. “The Extraordinary Relationship Between Peacekeeping and Peace.” British Journal of Political Science51 (4): 1705-1722.
68.
WintersMatthew S.Conroy-KrutzJeffrey. 2021. “Preferences for Traditional and Formal Sector Justice Institutions to Address Land Disputes in Rural Mali.” World Development142: 105452.
69.
WooldridgeJeffrey M.2015. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
