This paper introduces the theoretical concept of perceived resource access security in order to assess the link between natural resource scarcity and interstate conflict. It develops the hypothesis that resource access through international trade is an important determinant for conflict behaviour of states arising from resource concerns, implying a shift in focus away from endowments and towards competition for access. The main analysis is conducted in the form of a unit fixed effects logistic regression covering country-dyads of the period 1962–2010 with military interstate dispute (MID) initiation as dependent variable. The empirical findings consistently demonstrate that a diversified position in resource supply networks mitigates the conflict propensity of states characterized by outside dependence for access to natural resources, and thereby help to determine conditions under which trade reduces conflict.
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