Many international agreements, from routine trade deals to high-stakes nuclear agreements, are negotiated in secret. However, we have a limited understanding of how secrecy in a negotiation shapes attitudes towards the agreement. Public opinion matters because it informs government decisions about when to conceal or reveal information during a negotiation. In a survey experiment of U.S. adults, I first examine overall attitudes towards secrecy in security and economic agreements. I then randomize government justifications for negotiating in secret: improved success, protection of sensitive information, and anticipation of criticism from domestic and international opponents. I find that respondents are generally averse to secrecy in international negotiations, but there are justifications for its use that they perceive as more legitimate. Secrecy is more permissible when negotiations contain sensitive information or when it improves the likelihood that agreements are reached. It is less permissible when governments negotiate in secret to avoid domestic criticism.
BasMuhammetSchubRobert. 2016. “Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret alliances and Conflict Onset.” International Studies Quarterly60 (3): 552-564.
6.
BechtelMichael M.ScheveKenneth F.. 2013. “Mass Support for Global Climate Agreements Depends on Institutional Design.” Proceedings of the National Academic of Sciences110: 13763-13768.
7.
BechtelMichael M.ScheveKenneth F.van LieshoutElisabeth. 2020. “Constant Carbon Pricing Increases Support for Climate Action Compared to Ramping up Costs over Time.” Nature Climate Change10: 1004-1009.
8.
BellSam R.MachainCarla Martinez. 2018. “Democracy, Transparency, and Secrecy in Crisis.” Foreign Policy Analysis14(4): 592-602.
9.
BenthamJeremy. 1843. The Works of Jeremy Bentham, Vol. 4. Simpkin, Marshall, and Co.
10.
BernauerThomasGampferRobertMengTianguangSuYu-Sung. 2016. “Could More Civil Society Involvement Increase Public Support for Climate Policy-Making? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in China.” Global Environmental Change40: 1-12.
11.
BernauerThomasMohrenbergSteffenKoubiVally. 2020. “Do Citizens Evaluate International Cooperation Based on Information about Procedural and Outcome Quality?” The Review of International Organizations15: 505-529.
12.
BrownJonathan N.2013. “The Sound of Silence: Power, Secrecy, and International Audiences in US Military Basing Negotiations.” Conflict Management and Peace Science31(4): 406-431.
13.
BrutgerRyanRathbunBrian. 2018. “Style over Substance: How Negotiation Process Affects Support for International Agreements in the Mass Public.” Presented at the Political Economy of International Organization (PEIO) Conference, Madison, WI, February 8-10, 2018.
14.
BrutgerRyanRathbunBrian. 2021. “Fair Share? Equality and Equity in American Attitudes Toward Trade.” International Organization75 (3): 880-900.
15.
BrutgerRyanKertzerJoshua D.. 2018. “A Dispositional Theory of Audience Costs.” International Organization72 (3): 693-724.
16.
BrutgerRyanLiSiyao. 2022. “Institutional Design, Information Transmission, and Public Opinion: Making the Case for Trade.” Journal of Conflict Resolution66 (10): 1881-1907.
17.
BullockJohn G.HaShang E.. 2011. “Mediation Analysis is Harder than it Looks.” In Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science, edited by. DruckmanJames N.GreenDonald P.KuklinskiJames H.ArthurLupia, 508-521. Cambridge University Press.
18.
CarnegieAllison. 2021. “Secrecy in International Relations and Foreign Policy.” Annual Review of Political Science24: 213-233.
19.
CarnegieAllisonCarsonAustin. 2019. “The Disclosure Dilemma: Nuclear Intelligence and International Organizations.” American Journal of Political Science63 (2): 269-285.
20.
CarnegieAllisonCarsonAustin. 2020. Secrets in Global Governance: Disclosure Dilemmas and the Challenge of International Cooperation. Cambridge University Press.
21.
CarnegieAllisonKertzerJoshua D.Yarhi-MiloKeren. 2023. “Democratic Peace and Covert Military Force: An Experimental Test.” Journal of Conlfict Resolution63 (2-3): 1881-1907.
22.
CarsonAustin. 2016. “Facing Off and Saving Face: Covert Intervention and Escalation Management in the Korean War.” International Organization70 (1): 103-131.
23.
CarsonAustin. 2018. Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics. Princeton University Press.
24.
CarsonAustinYarhi-MiloKeren. 2017. “Covert Communication: The Intelligibility and Credibility of Signaling in Secret.” Security Studies26 (1): 124-156.
25.
CaslerDonClarkRichard. 2021. “Trade Rage: Audience Costs and International Trade.” Journal of Conflict Resolution65 (6): 1098-1130.
26.
CastleMatthewPelcKrzystof J.. 2019. “The Causes and Effects of Leaks in International Negotiations.” International Studies Quarterly63 (4): 1147-1162.
27.
ChaudoinStephen. 2014. “Promises or Policies? An Experimental Analysis of International Agreements and Audience Reactions.” International Organization68 (1): 235-236.
28.
ChristensonDino P.KrinerDouglas L.. 2015. “Constitutional Qualms or Politics as Usual? The Factors Shaping Public Support for Unilateral Action.” American Journal of Political Science61 (2): 335-349.
29.
ChristensonDino P.KrinerDouglas L.. 2020. The Myth of the Imperial Presidency: How Public Opinon Checks the Unilateral Executive. The University of Chicago Press.
30.
ColaresiMichael. 2012. “A Boom with Review: How Retrospective Oversight Increases the Foreign Policy Ability of Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science56 (3): 671-689.
31.
ColaresiMichael P.2014. Democracy Declassified: The Secrecy Dilemma in National Security. Oxford Scholarshihp Online.
32.
CormacRoryAldrichRichard J.. 2018. “Grey is the New Black: Covert Action and Implausible Deniability.” International Affairs94 (3): 477-494.
33.
DaughertyWilliam. 2006. Executive Secrets: Covert Action and the Presidency. University of Kentucky Press.
34.
DeeksAshley S.2017. “A (Qualified) Defense of Secret Agreements.” Arizona State Law Journal49: 732-735.
35.
DePillisLydia. 2015. “The Catch-22 of Trade Deals Done in Secret.” The Washington Post, May 15.
36.
DillJaninaSchubigerLivia I.. 2021. “Attitudes Toward the Use of Force: Instrumental Imperative, Moral Principles, and International Law.” American Journal of Political Science65 (3): 612-633.
37.
DovereEdward-Isaac. 2015. “Extreme Secrecy Eroding Support for Obama’s Trade Pact.” Politico, May 4.
38.
DownesAlexander B.LilleyMary Lauren. 2010. “Overt Peace, Covert War?: Covert Intervention and the Democratic Peace.” Security Studies19: 266-306.
39.
FloriniAnn. 1998. “The End of Secrecy.” Foreign Policy.
40.
FloriniAnn. 2007. The Right to Know: Transparency for an Open World. Columbia University Press.
41.
ForsytheDavid P.1992. “Democracy, War, and Covert Action.” Journal of Peace Research29 (4): 385-395.
42.
GelpiChristopherFeaverPeter D.ReiflerJason. 2005/06. “Success Matters: Casuality Sensitivity and the War in Iraq.” International Security30 (3): 7-46.
43.
GelpiChristopherFeaverPeter D.ReiflerJason. 2009. Paying the Human Costs of War: American Public Opinion and Casualties in Military Conflicts. Princeton University Press.
44.
GibbsDavid N.1995. “Secrecy and International Relations.” Journal of Peace Research32 (2): 213-228.
45.
GoiteinElizabeth. 2016. “The New Era of Secret Law.” Report published by the Brennan Center for Justice atNew York University School of Law.
46.
GrahamMatthew H.SvolikMilan W.. 2020. “Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States.” American Political Science Review114 (2): 392-409.
47.
GriecoJoseph M.GelpiChristopherReiflerJasonFeaverPeter D.. 2011. “Let’s Get a Second Opinion: International Institutions and American Public Support for War.” International Studies Quarterly55 (2): 563-583.
48.
HaasMelinaYarhi-MiloKeren. 2020. “To Disclose or Deceive? Sharing Secret Information between Aligned States.” International Security45 (3): 122-161.
49.
Hafner-BurtonEmilie M.Steinert-ThrelkeldZachary C.VictorDavid G.. 2016. “Predictability vs. Flexibility: Secrecy in International Investment Arbitration.” World Politics68 (3): 413-453.
50.
HahmHyeonhoKönigThomasOsnabrüggeMoritzFrechElena. 2019. “Who Settles Disputes? Treaty Design and Trade Attitudes Toward the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).” International Organization73 (4): 881-900.
51.
HathawayOona A.2009. “Presidential Power over International Law: Restoring the Balance.” The Yale Law Journal119: 140-268.
52.
HoodChirstopherHealdDavid. 2006. Transparency: The Key to Better Governance?Oxford University Press.
53.
HurwitzJonPeffleyMark. 1987. “The Means and Ends of Foreign Policy as a Determinant to Presidential Support.” American Journal of Political Science31 (2): 236-258.
54.
JohnsRobertDaviesGraeme A. M.. 2019. “Civilian Casualties and Public Support for Military Action: Experimental Evidence.” Journal of Conflict Resolution63 (1): 251-281.
55.
JohnsonLoch K.2022. The Third Option: Covert Action and American Foreign Policy. Oxford University Press.
56.
JosephMichael F.PoznanskyMichael. 2018. “Media Technology, Covert Action, and the Politics of Exposure.” Journal of Peace Research55: 320-335.
57.
JuhlSebastianHilpertDavid. 2021. “Wheeling and Dealing Behind Closed Doors: Estimating the Causal Effect of Transparency on Policy Evaluations using a Survey Experiment.” Political Science Research and Methods9: 36-52.
58.
KasperkevicJana.2015. “Obama Defends Controversial TPP Deal and Dismisses Secrecy Concerns.” The Guardian, October 10.
59.
KertzerJoshua D.RathbunBrian C.RathbunNina Srinivasan. 2020. “The Price of Peace: Motivated Reasoning and Costly Signaling in International Relations.” International Organization74 (1): 95-118.
60.
KertzerJoshua D.KathleenE.PowersBrian C. RathbunIyerRavi. 2014. “Moral Support: How Moral Values Shape Foreign Policy Attitudes.” Journal of Politics63 (3): 825-840.
61.
KertzerJoshua D.BrutgerRyan. 2016. “Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory.” American Journal of Political Science60 (1): 234-249.
62.
KoremenosBarbaraLipsonCharlesDuncanSnidal. 2001. “The Rational Design of International Institutions.” International Organization55 (4): 761-799.
63.
KravetsDavid. 2009. “Obama Administration Declares Proposed IP Treaty a ’National Security’ Secret.” WIRED Magazine, March 12.
64.
KuoRaymond. 2020. “Secrecy among Friends: Covert Military Alliances and Portfolio Consistency.” Journal of Conflict Resolution64 (1): 63-89.
65.
LeeTimothy B.2013. “Obama Administration Sued Over Its Secretive Trade Negotiations.” The Washington Post, December 18.
66.
LesterGenevieve. 2015. When Should State Secrets Stay Secret? Accountability, Democratic Governance, and Intelligence. Cambridge University Press.
67.
LevineDavid S.2011. “Transparency Soup: The ACTA Negotiating Process and “Black Box” Lawmaking.” American University Law Review26 (3): 811-837.
68.
MaxeySarah. 2021. “Limited Spin: When the Public Punishes Leaders Who Lie about Military Action.” Journal of Conflict Resolution65 (2-3): 283-312.
69.
McManusRoseanne W.Yarhi-MiloKeren. 2017. “The Logic of ‘Offstage’ Signaling: Domestic Politics, Regime Type, and Major Power-Protege Relations.” International Organization71 (4): 701-733.
70.
MearsheimerJohn. 2011. Why Leaders Lie: The Truth About Lying in International Politics. Oxford University Press.
71.
MilesTom. 2015. “U.N. Expert Says Secret Trade Deals Threaten Human Rights.” Reuters, April 23.
72.
MillJohn Stuart. 2015. On Liberty, Utilitarianism, and Other Essays. Oxford University Press.
73.
MyrickRachel. 2020. “Why So Secretive? Unpacking Public Attitudes Towards Secrecy and Success in US Foreign Policy.” Journal of Politics82 (3): 828-843.
74.
NuttCullen G.PaulyReid B. C.. 2021. “Caught Red-Handed: How States Wield Proof to Coerce Wrongdoers.” International Security46 (2): 7-50.
75.
ObamaBarack. 2015. “Statement by the President on the Trans-Pacific Partnership.” The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, October 5.
76.
Office of US Representative Claudia Tenney. 2022. “Tenney Leads Letter to President Biden Calling for Senior Administration Officials to Testify Publicly on JCPOA 2.0 Negotiations.” Press Release, April 23.
77.
O’KeefeEdNakamuraDavidMufsonSteven. 2014. “GOP Congressional Leaders Denounce U.S.-China Deal on Climate Change.” The Washington Post, November 12.
78.
O’RourkeLindsay. 2018. Covert Regime Change: America’s Secret Cold War. Cornell University Press.
79.
OttoJacobSpanielWilliam. 2021. “Doubling Down: The Danger of Disclosing Secret Action.” International Studies Quarterly65 (2): 500-511.
80.
PaceJuliePicklerNedra. 2014. “Climate Deal Surprises after Secret Negotiations.” San Diego Union Tribune, November 12.
81.
PaulyReid B. C.2022. “Deniability in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: The Upside of the Dual-Use Dilemma.” International Studies Quarterly66 (1): 1-13.
82.
PetersAnne. 2013. Towards Transparency as a Global Norm. In Transparency in International Law, edited by BianchiAndreaPetersAnne, 534-607. Cambridge University Press.
83.
PoznanskyMichael. 2015. “Stasis or Decay? Reconciling Covert War and the Democratic Peace.” International Studies Quarterly59: 815-826.
84.
PoznanskyMichael. 2019. “Feigning Compliance: Covert Action and International Law.” International Studies Quarterly63: 72-84.
85.
PoznanskyMichael. 2020. In the Shadow of International Law: Secrecy and Regime Change in the Postwar World. Oxford University Press.
86.
RathbunBrian C.SteinRachel. 2020. “Great Goods: Morality and Attitudes toward the Use of Nuclear Weapons.” Journal of Conflict Resolution64 (5): 787-816.
87.
RecchiaStefanoChuJonathan. 2021. “Validating Threat: IO Approval and Public Support for Joining Military Counterrorism Coalitions.” International Studies Quarterly65 (4): 919-928.
88.
ReganMittPooleMichele. 2021. “Accountability for Covert Action in the United States and the United Kingdom.” In National Security Intelligence and Ethics, edited by MillerSeumasReganMittWalshPatrick F., 232-248. Routledge.
89.
ReismanW. MichaelBakerJames E.. 1992. Regulating Covert Action: Practices, Contexts, and Policies of Covert Coercion Abroad in International and American Law. Yale University Press.
90.
ReiterDan. 2012. “Democracy, Deception, and Entry into War.” Security Studies21 (4): 594-623.
91.
RiemerOfekSobelmanDaniel. 2019. “Coercive Disclosure: Israel’s Weaponization of Intelligence.” War on the Rocks, August 2019.
92.
SangerDavid E.2021. “Secret Talks and a Hidden Agenda: Behind the U.S. Defense Deal That France Called a ‘Betrayal’.” The New York Times, September 17.
93.
SchraffDominik. 2022. “Asymmetric Ratification Standards and Popular Perceptions of Legitimacy.” Journal of European Public Policy3: 405-426.
94.
SchuesslerJohn M.2010. “The Deception Divided: FDR’s Undeclared War.” International Security34 (4): 133-165.
95.
SchuesslerJohn M.2015. Deceit on the Road to War: President, Politics, and Democracy. Cornell University Press.
96.
ShermanWendy. 2018. Not for the Faint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power, and Persistence. PublicAffairs.
97.
SimonovitsGaborMcCoyJenniferLittvayLevente. 2022. “Democratic Hypocrisy and Out-Group Threat: Explaining Citizen Support for Democratic Erosion.” The Journal of Politics84 (3): 1806-1811.
98.
SmithGregory. 2019. “Secret but Constrained: The Impact of Elite Opposition on Covert Operations.” International Organization73 (3): 685-707.
99.
SpanielWilliamPoznanskyMichael. 2018. “Credible Commitment in Covert Affairs.” American Journal of Political Science62 (3): 668-681.
100.
SpilkerGabrielleBernauerThomasUmanaVictor. 2016. “Selecting Partner Countries for Preferential Trade Agreements: Experimental Evidence from Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Vietnam.” International Studies Quarterly60 (4): 706-718.
101.
StasavageDavid.2004. “Open-Door or Closed-Door? Transparency in Domestic and International Bargaining.” International Organization58 (4): 667-703.
102.
TagoAtsushiIkedaMaki. 2015. “An ‘A’ for Effort: Experimental Evidence on UN Security Council Engagement and Support for US Military Action in Japan.” British Journal of Political Science45: 391-410.
103.
TingleyDustinTomzMichael. 2014. “Conditional Cooperation and Climate Change.” Comparative Political Studies47: 344-368.
104.
TomzMichael R.WeeksJessica L. P.. 2013. “Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review107 (4): 849-865.
105.
WallaceGeoffrey P. R.2013. “International Law and Public Attitudes Towards Torture: An Experimental Study.” International Organization67 (1): 105-140.
106.
WeismanJonathan. 2015. “Trans-Pacific Partnership Seen as Door for Foreign Suits Against U.S.” The New York Times, March 25.
WrightLawrence. 2014. Thirteen Days in September: Carter, Begin, and Sadat at Camp David. Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group.
109.
Yarhi-MiloKerenRibarDavid. 2023. “Who Punishes Leaders for Lying About the Use of Force? Evaluating The Microfoundations of Domestic Deception Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution67 (4): 559-586.
110.
YoderBrandon K.SpanielWilliam. 2022. “Costly Concealment: Secret Foreign Policymaking, Transparency, and Credible Reassurance.” International Organzation76 (4): 868-900.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
