News reports and policymakers frequently link African civil conflicts and wars to agricultural crises caused by droughts. However, empirical studies of the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict or war remain inconclusive. I reexamine this relationship focusing on rainfall over each country’s agricultural land during the growing seasons. I also incorporate that the relationship between rainfall and agricultural output is hump-shaped, as rainfall beyond a threshold decreases output. I find a U-shaped relationship between rainfall and the risk of civil conflict and war in (Sub-Saharan) African countries. This relationship mirrors the hump-shaped relationship between rainfall and agricultural output.
AdlerRobert F.HuffmanGeorge J.ChangAlfredFerraroRalphXiePing-PingJanowiakJohnRudolfBrunoSchneiderUdoCurtisScottBolvinDavidArnoldGruberJoelSusskindPhilipArkinEricNelkin. 2003. “The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-present).” Journal of Hydrometeorology40 (6): 1147–67.
2.
AshrafQuamrulGalorOded. 2013. “The “Out of Africa” Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development.” The American Economic Review1030 (1): 1–46.
3.
AshrafQuamrulMichalopoulosStelios. 2015. “Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture.” Review of Economics and Statistics970 (3): 589–609.
4.
BazziSamuelBlattmanChristopher. 2014. “Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics60 (4): 1–38.
BesleyTimothyPerssonTorsten. 2011. “The Logic of Political Violence.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics1260 (3): 1411–45.
7.
BlattmanChristopherMiguelEdward. 2010. “Civil War.” Journal of Economic Literature480 (1): 3–57.
8.
BrücknerMarkusCicconeAntonio. 2010. “International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa.” The Economic Journal1200 (544): 519–34.
9.
ChassangSylvainMiquelGerard Padró i. 2009. “Economic Shocks and Civil War.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science4:211–28.
10.
CicconeAntonio. 2011. “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics30 (4): 215–27.
11.
CicconeAntonio. 2018. “International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12625. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3106829.
12.
CouttenierMathieuSoubeyranRaphael. 2014. “Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa.” The Economic Journal1240 (575): 201–44.
13.
CrostBenjaminDuquennoisClaireFelterJoseph H.ReesDaniel I.. 2018. “Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management88:379–95.
14.
DalBóErnestoDal BóPedro. 2011. “Workers, Warriors, and Criminals: Social Conflict in General Equilibrium.” Journal of the European Economic Association90 (4): 646–77.
15.
DurantonGillesMorrowPeter M.TurnerMatthew A.. 2014. “Roads and Trade: Evidence from the US.” The Review of Economic Studies810 (2): 681–724.
16.
FearonJames D.2007. Institutions and Economic Performance, Chapter Economic Development, Insurgency, and Civil War. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
17.
FischerGüntherNachtergaeleFreddy O.PrielerSylviaTeixeiraEdmarTóthGézaVelthuizenHarrij vanVerelstLucWibergDavid. 2012. Global Agro-ecological Zones (gaez v3. 0): Model Documentation. International Institute for Applied systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg. Rome, Italy: Austria and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
18.
GleditschNils PetterWallensteenPeterErikssonMikaelSollenbergMargaretaStrandHåvard. 2002. “Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research390 (5): 615–37.
19.
GrossmanHerschel I.1991. “A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections.” American Economic Review810 (4): 912–21.
20.
GuiterasRaymond. 2009. “The Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture.” Manuscript. College Park, MD: Department of Economics, University of Maryland.
21.
HarariMariaflaviaFerraraEliana La. 2018. “Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis.” Review of Economics and Statistics1000 (4): 594–608.
22.
IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
23.
KalnayE.KanamitsuM.KistlerR.CollinsW.DeavenD.GandinL.IredellM.SahaS.WhiteG.WoollenJ.ZhuY.ChelliahM.EbisuzakiW.HigginsW.JanowiakJ.MoK. C.RopelewskiC.WangJ.LeetmaaA.ReynoldsR.JenneRoyJosephDennis. 1996. “The NCEP/NCAR 40-year Reanalysis Project.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society770 (3): 437–71.
24.
KanamitsuMasaoEbisuzakiWesleyWoollenJackYangShi-KengHniloJ. J.FiorinoM.PotterG. L.. 2002. “Ncep-doe Amip-ii Reanalysis (r-2).” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society830 (11): 1631–43.
LiebmanJeffreyKatzLawrenceKingJeffrey. 2004. “Beyond Treatment Effects: Estimating the Relationship between Neighborhood Poverty and Individual Outcomes in the MTO Experiment.” Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, 2004.
27.
LobellDavid B.SchlenkerWolframCosta-RobertsJustin. 2011. “Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980.” Science3330 (6042): 616–20.
MiguelEdwardSatyanathShanker. 2011. “Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics30 (4): 228–32.
30.
MiguelEdwardSatyanathShankerSergentiErnest. 2004. “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach.” Journal of Political Economy1120 (4): 725–53.
31.
NachtergaeleFreddyPetriMonica. 2013. “Mapping Land Use Systems at Global and Regional Scales for Land Degradation Assessment Analysis-version 1.1.” http://www.fao.org/3/i3242e/i3242e.pdf.
SambanisNicholas. 2002. “A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War.” Defence and Peace Economics130 (3): 215–43.
34.
SchlenkerWolframLobellDavid B.. 2010. “Robust Negative Impacts of Climate Change on African Agriculture.” Environmental Research Letters50 (1): 4010.
35.
SchlenkerWolframRobertsMichael J.. 2009. “Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to Us Crop Yields Under Climate Change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America1060 (37): 15594.
36.
SeneviratneSonia I.NichollsNevilleEasterlingDavidGoodessClare M.KanaeShinjiroKossinJamesLuoYaliMarengoJoseMcInnesKathleenRahimiMohammad, et al.2012. “Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment.” In Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by FieldC. B.BarrosV.StockerT. F.QinD.DokkenD. J.EbiK. L.MastrandreaM. D.MachK. J.PlattnerG.-K.AllenS. K.TignorM.MidgleyP. M., 109–230. Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
37.
TheisenOle M.HoltermannHelgeBuhaugHalvard. 2011. “Climate Wars?: Assessing the Claim that Drought Breeds Conflict.” International Security360 (3): 79–106.
38.
UexkullNina von.2014. “Sustained Drought, Vulnerability and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Political Geography43:16–26.
39.
VrielingAntonLeeuwJan DeSaidMohammed Y.. 2013. “Length of Growing Period Over Africa: Variability and Trends from 30 Years of NDVI Time Series.” Remote Sensing50 (2): 982–1000.
40.
WeidmannNils B.KuseDoreenGleditschKristian Skrede. 2010. “The Geography of the International System: The Cshapes Dataset.” International Interactions360 (1): 86–106.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
