The literature suggests that geographically concentrated groups face a higher likelihood of conflict. While this finding seems to be commonly accepted, there is no clear consensus that explains why this is the case. Two competing mechanisms have been proposed: first, a motivation-driven mechanism, where the existence of a well-defined group territory makes the group more likely to fight for it; and second, an opportunity-driven link, where concentration facilitates group coordination for collective action. This article aims to resolve this controversy by developing new settlement pattern indicators based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data. Using conflict data at the level of ethnic groups, I show that there is clear evidence in favor of the opportunity mechanism. Thus, the effect of group concentration on conflict seems to be driven by the strategic advantages for group coordination that the spatial proximity of group members provides.
Alesina, Alberto, Arnaud Devleeschauwer, William Easterly, Sergio Kurlat, and Romain Wacziarg .2003. Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth8:155-94.
2.
Beck, Nathaniel, Johnathan N. Katz, and Richard Tucker.1998. Taking time seriously: Times-series-cross-section analysis with a binary dependent variable. American Journal of Political Science42 (4): 1260-88.
3.
Boulding, Kenneth E.1962. Conflict and defense. A general theory. New York: Harper & Row.
4.
Brubaker, Rogers.2004. Ethnicity without groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
5.
Bruk, Solomon I., and V. S. Apenchenko, eds. 1964. Atlas narodov mira (Atlas of the peoples of the world). Moscow: Glavnoe Upravlenie Geodezii I Kartografi.
6.
Buhaug, Halvard.2006. Relative capability and rebel objective in civil war. Journal of Peace Research43 (6): 691-708.
7.
Buhaug, Halvard, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Jan Ketil Rød .2008. Disaggregating ethnic conflict: A dyadic model of exclusion theory. International Organization62 (3): 531-51.
8.
Buhaug, Halvard, and Jan Ketil Rød .2006. Local determinants of African civil wars, 1970-2001. Political Geography25 (3): 315-35.
9.
Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Luc Girardin .2007. Beyond fractionalization: Mapping ethnicity onto nationalist insurgencies. American Political Science Review101 (1): 173-85.
10.
Chen, Xiao, Philip B. Ender, Michael Mitchell, and Christine Wells .2003. Regression with stata. University of California-Los Angeles. http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/webbooks/reg/default.htm .
11.
CIESIN. 2005. Gridded population of the world v3 (GPWv3). http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw.
12.
Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler.2004. Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers56 (4): 563-95.
13.
Cornell, Svante E.2002. Autonomy as a source of conflict: Caucasian conflicts in theoretical perspective. World Politics54:245-76.
14.
Diehl, Paul.1991. Geography and War: A Review and Assessment of the Empirical Literature. International Interactions17 (1): 11-27.
15.
Fearon, James D.1995. Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization49 (3): 379-414.
16.
---. 1998. Commitment problems and the spread of ethnic conflict . In The international spread of ethnic conflict: Fear, diffusion, and escalation, ed. David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild.Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
17.
---. 2004. Why do some civil wars last so much longer than others ? Journal of Peace Research41 (3): 275-301.
18.
Fearon, James D., Kimuli Kasara, and David D. Laitin .2007. Ethnic minority rule and civil war onset. American Political Science Review101 (1): 187-93.
19.
Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin .2003. Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review97 (1): 75-90.
20.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg, and Håvard Strand.2002. Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new dataset . Journal of Peace Research39 (5): 615-37.
21.
Goemans, Hein.2006. Bounded communities: Territoriality, territorial attachment, and conflict. In Territoriality and conflict in an era of globalization , ed. M. Kahler and B. Walter.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
22.
Gurr, Ted Robert.1970. Why men rebel. Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press.
23.
---. 1993. Minorities at risk: A global view of ethnopolitical conflicts . Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
24.
Hardin, Russell.1995. One for all: The logic of group conflict. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press .
25.
Hedström, Peter, and Richard Swedberg .1998. Social mechanisms: An introductory essay. In Social mechanisms: An analytical approach to social theory, ed. P. Hedström and R. Swedberg.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
26.
Hensel, Paul R.2000. Territory: Theory and evidence on geography and conflict . In What do we know about war? ed. J. A. Vasquez.Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
27.
Holsti, Kalevi Jacque.1991. Peace and war: Armed conflicts and international order, 1648-1989. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
28.
Horowitz, Donald.1985. Ethnic groups in conflict. Berkeley : University of California Press.
29.
Kaufmann, Chaim.1996. Possible and impossible solutions to ethnic civil wars . International Security20 (4): 136-75.
30.
King, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg .2000. Making the most of statistical analyses: Improving interpretation and presentation. American Journal of Political Science44 (2): 341-55.
31.
Laitin, David D.2004. Ethnic unmixing and civil war. Security Studies13 (4): 350-65.
32.
Lemke, Douglas.1995. The tyranny of distance: Redefining relevant dyads . International Interactions21:23-38.
33.
Lichbach, Mark Irving.1995. The rebel's dilemma. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.
34.
Lujala, Päivi, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Elisabeth Gilmore .2005. A diamond curse? Civil war and a lootable resource. Journal of Conflict Resolution49:538-62.
35.
Lujala, Päivi, Jan Ketil Rød, and Nadja Thieme.2007. Fighting over oil: Introducing a new dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science24 (3): 239-56.
36.
Marshall, Monty G., and Keith Jaggers.2000. Polity IV dataset and users' manual: Political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800-1999. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/polity/.
37.
Minorities at Risk Project.2005. Minorities at risk dataset. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/.
38.
---. 2008. Minorities at risk organizational behavior dataset. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/ .
39.
Montalvo, José, and Marta Reynal-Querol.2005. Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil war. American Economic Review95 (3): 796-816.
40.
Posen, Barry R.1993. The security dilemma and ethnic conflict. Survival35 (1): 27-47.
41.
Sambanis, Nicholas.2000. Partition as a solution to ethnic war. World Politics52:437-83.
42.
Starr, Harvey, and Benjamin Most.1978. A return journey: Richardson, frontiers, and war in the 1945-1965 era. Journal of Conflict Resolution22:441-62.
43.
Taylor, Charles, and Michael C. Hudson.1972. World handbook of political and social indicators. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
44.
Toft, Monica Duffy.2002. Indivisible territory, geographic concentration, and ethnic war. Security Studies12 (2): 82-119.
45.
---. 2003. The geography of ethnic violence: Identity, interests, and the indivisibility of territory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
46.
Weidmann, Nils B., Jan Ketil Rød, and Lars-Erik Cederman , in press. Representing groups in space: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research.
47.
Wesley, James Paul.1962. Frequency of wars and geographical opportunity . The Journal of Conflict Resolution6 (4): 387-9.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
