Abstract
Using time-series procedures, the authors investigate whether transnational terrorism changed following 9/11 and the subsequent U.S.-led “war on terror.” Perhaps surprising, little has changed in the time series of overall incidents and most of its component series. When 9/11 is prejudged as a break date, the authors find that logistically complex hostage-taking events have fallen as a proportion of all events, while logistically simple, but deadly, bombings have increased as a proportion of deadly incidents. These results hold when they apply the Bai-Perron procedure in which structural breaks are data identified. This procedure locates earlier breaks in the mid-1970s and 1990s. Reasonable out-of-sample forecasts are possible if structural breaks are incorporated fairly rapidly into the model.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
