Event data on the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Palestinian conflicts in the Levant (1979-1999) and the Serbia-Croatia and Serbia-Bosnia conflicts in the Balkans (1991-1999) are used to test two sets of process-related hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation. Cross-correlation analysis is used to examine the time delay in the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Results show that these effects vary somewhat, depending on the conflict, and differ substantially, depending on who is conducting the mediation. Whether conflict reduction is most effectively achieved with sanctions or rewards is tested. Results show that a reduction in violence is generally associated with mediation combined with conflictual action directed toward both of the antagonists and combined with cooperative action directed to the weaker antagonist.
Ayres, William R.1997. Mediating international conflicts: Is image change necessary?Journal of Peace Research34 (3): 431-447.
2.
Bercovitch, Jacob , ed. 1996. Resolving international conflict: The theory and practice of mediation. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
3.
Bercovitch, Jacob , and Allison Houston. 1996. The study of international mediation: Theoretical issues and empirical evidence. In Resolving international conflicts: The theory and practice of mediation, edited by Jacob Bercovitch, 11-35. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
4.
Bercovitch, Jacob , and Allison Houston. 2000.Why do they do it like this? An analysis of the factors influencing mediation behavior in international crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution44 (2): 170-202.
5.
Bercovitch, Jacob , and Richard Wells. 1993. Evaluating mediating strategies: A theoretical and empirical analysis. Peace and Change18: 3-25.
6.
Bercovitch, Jacob J. , Theodore Anagnoson, and Donnette L. Wille. 1991. Some conceptual issues and empirical trends in the study of successful mediation in international relations. Journal of Peace Research28 (1): 7-17.
7.
Bercovitch, Jacob J. , and Gerald Schneider. 2000. Who mediates? The political economy of international conflict management. Journal of Peace Research37 (2): 145-165.
8.
Bond, Doug , J. Craig Jenkins, Charles L. Taylor, and Kurt Schock. 1997. Mapping mass political conflict andcivil society: The automated development of event data. Journal of Conflict Resolution41: 553-579.
9.
Butterworth, Robert Lyle , with Margaret E. Scranton. 1976. Managing interstate conflict, 1945-74: Data with synopses. Pittsburgh: University Center for International Studies.
10.
Carment, David , and Dane Rowlands. 1998. Evaluating third-party intervention in intrastate conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution42 (5): 572-599.
11.
Chatfield, C.1989. The analysis of time series: An introduction. London: Chapman and Hall.
12.
Fisher, Roger , Andrea Kupfer Schneider, Elizabeth Borgwardt, and Brian Ganson. 1997. Coping with international conflict: A systematic approach to influence in international negotiation. New York: Prentice-Hall.
13.
Fisher, Roger , and William Ury. 1978. International mediation, a working guide: Ideas for the practitioner. New York: International Peace Academy.
14.
Gerner, Deborah J. , Philip A. Schrodt, Ronald A. Francisco, and Judith L. Weddle. 1994. The machine coding of events from regional and international sources. International Studies Quarterly38: 91-119.
15.
Gerner, Deborah J. , and Ian S. Wilbur. 2000. Semantics or substance? Showdown between the United States and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Pew Case Studies in International Affairs, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown University.
16.
Goldstein, Joshua S.1992. A conflict-cooperation scale for WEIS events data. Journal of Conflict Resolution36: 369-385.
17.
Goldstein, Joshua S. , and John R. Freeman. 1990. Three-way street: Strategic reciprocity in world politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
18.
Goldstein, Joshua S. , and Jon C. Pevehouse. 1997. Reciprocity, bullying and international cooperation: A time-series analysis of the Bosnia conflict. American Political Science Review91 (3): 515-530.
19.
Gottman, John M.1981. Time-series analysis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
20.
Haas, Ernst B.1967. Collective security and the future international system. Denver, CO: University of Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs5, 1.
21.
Haas, Ernst B. , Robert Lyle Butterworth, and Joseph S. Nye. 1972. Conflict management by international organizations. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press.
22.
Huxtable, Phillip A. , and Jon C. Pevehouse. 1996. Potential validity problems in events data collection. International Studies Notes21 (2): 8-19.
23.
Kaldor, Mary . 1999. New and old wars. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
24.
Kendall, M. G.1973. Time series. New York: Hafner.
25.
Laue, James . 1993. The conflict resolution field: An overview of some essential questions. In Dialogues on conflict resolution: Bridging theory and practice, edited by W. Scott Thompson. Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace.
26.
Leng, Russell J.1987. Behavioral correlates of war, 1816-1975. ICPSR 8606. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
27.
McClelland, Charles A.1970. Some effects on theory from the international event analysis movement. Mimeo, University of Southern California, February.
28.
McClelland, Charles A.1976. World event/interaction survey codebook. ICPSR 5211. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
29.
Mooradian, Moorad , and Daniel Druckman. 1999. Hurting stalemate or mediation? The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, 1990-1995. Journal of Peace Research36 (6): 709-727.
30.
Nye, Joseph S.1968. Peace in parts. Boston: Little, Brown.
31.
Schrodt, Philip A.1990. Parallel event sequences in international crises. Political Behavior12: 97-123.
32.
Schrodt, Philip A. , and Deborah J. Gerner. 1994. Validity assessment of a machine-coded event data set for the Middle East, 1982-1992. American Journal of Political Science38: 825-854.
33.
Schrodt, Philip A. , Deborah J. Gerner, Rajaa Abu-Jabr, Ömür Yilmaz, and Erin M. Simpson. 2001. Analyzing the dynamics of international mediation processes in the Middle East and Balkans. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, August 30- September 2.
34.
Touval, Saadia . 1982. The peace brokers: Mediators in the Arab-Israeli conflict 1948-1979. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
35.
Weiss, Thomas G.1999. Military-civilian interactions. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
