Another Look at “Parties,Voters,and the Use of Force Abroad”

Abstract

Joanne Gowa's 1998 article “Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad” is examined in light of issues raised by her empirical analysis. Newly available time-series models for event-count data permit consideration of the dynamics of the use-of-force series. It is possible that the relationship between decisions to use force and the major independent variables has changed since 1870. More appropriate data on U.S. uses of force and a wider range of indicators for the major independent variables permit a more convincing test of the hypotheses she presents. The reanalysis supports some of her conclusions, particularly those concerning election cycles and partisanship. However, it also indicates that her analysis underestimated the importance of domestic economic conditions and suggests some important qualifications to her conclusion that international conditions are the main determinant of U.S. decisions to use force.