Some points in time are more favorable for mediation success than others and result from the concatenation of contextual factors that encourage movement toward more cooperative behavior by disputants. Ripeness for mediation between enduring rivals is examined by focusing on mediation success in the short and extended term. Results suggest that the factors conducive to the achievement of short-term mediation success differ significantly from those that promote extended-term improvement in the rivalry relationship. These results help to reconcile some of the diversity of expectations in the ripeness literature by demonstrating that short-term and extended-term mediation success follow distinct dynamics.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Bennett, D. Scott , and Allan Stam. 2000. EUGene: A conceptual manual. International Interactions26:179-204. (See also the Web site at http://eugenesoftware.org)
2.
Bercovitch, Jacob. 1997a. International conflict management database. Unpublished data and coding manual.
3.
Bercovitch, Jacob 1997b. Mediation in international conflict: An overview of theory, a review of practice. In Peace-making in international conflict: Methods and techniques, edited by William Zartman and J. Lewis Rasmussen. Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace.
4.
Bercovitch, Jacob , J. Theodore Anagnoson, and Donnette L. Wille. 1991. Some conceptual issues and empirical trends in the study of successful mediation in international relations. Journal of Peace Research28:7-17.
5.
Bercovitch, Jacob , and Paul Diehl. 1997. Conflict management of enduring rivalries: The frequency, timing, and short-term impact of mediation. International Interactions22:299-320.
6.
Bercovitch, Jacob , Paul Diehl, and Gary Goertz. 1997. The management and termination of protracted interstate conflicts: Conceptual and empirical considerations. Millennium: Journal of International Studies26:751-769.
7.
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet, and Bradford Jones. 1999. Timing and political change: Event history modeling in political science. Unpublished manuscript.
8.
Brams, Steven , and Alan Taylor. 1996. Fair division: From cake-cutting to dispute resolution. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
9.
Diehl, Paul , and Gary Goertz. 2000. War and peace in international rivalry. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
10.
Edmead, F. 1971. Analysis and prediction in international mediation. New York: UNITAR.
11.
Gleditsch, Kristian S. 2000. Polity 98D [Online data file]. Available from ftp://isere.colorado.edu/pub/datasets/polity98d/pol98d.asc
12.
Haas, Richard . 1990. Conflicts unending: The United States and regional disputes. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
13.
Holbrooke, Richard . 1998. To end a war. New York: Random House.
14.
Jones, Daniel , Stuart Bremer, and J. David Singer. 1996. Militarized interstate disputes: 1816-1992 rationale, coding rules, and empirical patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science15:163-213.
15.
Kriesberg, Louis . 1992. International conflict resolution. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
16.
Mitchell, Christopher . 1995. The right moment: Notes on four models of “ripeness.”Paradigms9:38-52.
17.
Mor, Ben . 1997. Peace initiatives and public opinion: The domestic costs of conflict resolution. Journal of Peace Research34:197-215.
18.
Pruitt, Dean . 1981. Negotiation behavior. New York: Academic Press.
19.
Regan, Patrick , and Allan Stam. 2000. In the nick of time. International Studies Quarterly44:239-260.
20.
Richmond, Oliver . 1998. Devious objectives and the disputants' view of international mediation: A theoretical framework. Journal of Peace Research35:707-722.
21.
Richter, James . 1992. Perpetuating the cold war: Domestic sources of international patterns of behavior. Political Science Quarterly107:271-302.
22.
Singer, J. David , Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey. 1972. Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820-1965. In Peace, war and numbers, edited by Bruce Russett. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
23.
Singer, J. David , and Melvin Small. 1993. COW international and civil war data, 1816-1992-Part 2: Civil wars. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
24.
Wickboldt, Anne-Katrin , Jacob Bercovitch, and Selwyn Piramuthu. 1999. Dynamics of international mediation: Analysis using machine learning methods. Conflict Management and Peace Science17:49-68.
25.
Young, Oran . 1967. The intermediaries: Third parties in international crises. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
26.
Zartman, William . 1985. Ripe for resolution: Conflict and intervention in Africa. New York: Oxford University Press.
27.
Zartman, William . 2000. Ripeness: The hurting stalemate and beyond. In International conflict resolution after the cold war, edited by Paul Stern and Daniel Druckman. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
