A model is introduced that yields a single parsimonious explanation for a diverse range of political phenomena, including the processes of democratic consolidation and peace among democratic nations. The model predicts democratic values to arise from the norms of contract that are endemic in developed market economies and yields the novel contingent claim that the peace among democratic nations may be a pattern limited to those democracies with developed economies. Analyses of a large number of interstate dyads from 1950 to 1992 show strong support for this hypothesis. It seems that the pacifying impact of democracy is about twice as strong among developed countries compared with other dyads. Among conflict-prone contiguous dyads, the pacifying impact of democracy does not appear statistically significant among the poorest decile of joint democratic dyads. The study demonstrates the wide explanatory power of the simple postulate that social values and political preferences derive from socioeconomic norms.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Babst, Dean V.1964. Elected governments: A force for peace. Wisconsin Sociologist3:9-14.
2.
Bailey, Kenneth D. 1994. Methods of social research. 4th ed.New York: Free Press.
3.
Beck, Nathaniel , Jonathan Katz, and Richard Tucker. 1998. Taking time seriously in binary time-series-cross-section analysis. American Journal of Political Science42:1260-1288.
4.
Bierbrauar, Gunter . 1994. Toward an understanding of legal culture: Variations in individualism and collectivism between Kurds, Lebanese, and Germans. Law and Society Review28:243-264.
5.
Bliss, Harry , and Bruce Russett. 1998. Democratic trading partners: The liberal connection, 1962-1988. Journal of Politics60:1126-1147.
6.
Boulding, Kenneth . 1963. Conflict and defense. New York: Harper & Row.
7.
Bremer, Stuart A.1992. Dangerous dyads: Conditions affecting the likelihood of interstate war, 1816-1965. Journal of Conflict Resolution36:309-341.
8.
Bremer, Stuart A.1993. Democracy and militarized interstate conflict, 1816-1965. International Interactions18:231-249.
9.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce , James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith. 1999. An institutional explanation of the democratic peace. American Political Science Review93:791-807.
10.
Burkhart, Ross E. , and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 1994. Comparative democracy: The economic development thesis. American Political Science Review88:111-131.
11.
Choucri, Nazli , and Robert C. North. 1975. Nations in conflict. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.
12.
Chu, Yun-Han , Fu Hu, and Chung-in Moon. 1997. South Korea and Taiwan: The international context. In Consolidating the third wave of democracies, regional challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien, 267-294. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
13.
Dahl, Robert A. 1997. Development and democratic culture. In Consolidating the third wave of democracies, themes and perspectives, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien, 34-39. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
14.
Diamandouros, P. Nikiforos . 1997. Southern Europe: A third wave success story. In Consolidating the third wave of democracies, regional challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han chu, and Hung-mao Tien, 3-25. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
15.
Diamond, Larry . 1997. Introduction: In search of consolidation. In Consolidating the third wave of democracies, themes and perspectives, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien, xiii-xlvii. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
16.
Dixon, William J.1993. Democracy and the management of international conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution37:42-68.
17.
Dixon, William J.1994. Democracy and the peaceful settlement of international conflict. American Political Science Review88:14-32.
18.
Doyle, Michael W.1986. Liberalism and world politics. American Political Science Review80:1151-1169.
19.
Durkheim, Emile . [1893] 1933. The division of labour in society. Translated by George Simpson. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
20.
Farber, Henry S. , and Joanne Gowa. 1995. Polities and peace. International Security20:123-146.
21.
Friedrich, Robert J.1982. In defense of multiplicative terms in multiple regression equations. American Journal of Political Science26:797-833.
22.
Fukuyama, Francis . 1992. Capitalism and democracy: The missing link. Journal of Democracy3:100-110.
23.
Gilpin, Robert . 1981. War and change in world politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
24.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter , and Håvard Hegre. 1997. Peace and democracy: Three levels of analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution41:283-310.
25.
Haas, Michael . 1974. International conflict. New York: Bobbs-Merrill.
26.
Harris, Marvin . 1979. Cultural materialism: The struggle for a science of culture. New York: Random House.
27.
Hegre, Håvard . 2000. Development and the liberal peace: What does it take to be a trading state?Journal of Peace Research37:5-30.
28.
Hinckley, Ronald H. 1992. Peoples, polls, and policymakers: American public opinion and national security. New York: Lexington.
29.
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political order in changing societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
30.
Huntington, Samuel P. 1997. Democracy for the long haul. In Consolidating the third wave of democracies, themes and perspectives, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien, 3-13. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
31.
Inkeles, Alex , and Larry Diamond. 1980. Personal qualities as a reflection of level of national development. In The quality of life: Comparative studies, edited by Frank M. Andrews and Alexander Szalai, 73-109. London: Sage.
32.
James, Patrick , and Glenn E. Mitchell II. 1995. Targets of covert presure: The hidden victims of the democratic peace. International Interactions21:85-107.
33.
Jones, Daniel M. , Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer. 1996. Militarized interstate disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, coding rules, and empirical patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science15:163-213.
34.
King, Gary , Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba. 1994. Designing social inquirty: Scientific inference in qualitative research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
35.
Kowert, Paul , and Jeffrey Legro. 1996. Norms, identity, and their limits: A theoretical reprise. In The culture of national security, edited by Peter Katzenstein, 451-497. New York: Columbia University Press.
36.
Leung, Kwok . 1987. Some determinants of reactions to procedural model for conflict resolution: A cross-national study. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology53:898-908.
37.
Lipset, Seymour Martin . 1959. Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review53:69-105.
38.
Lipset, Seymour Martin , Kyoung-Ryung Seong, and John Charles Torres. 1993. A comparative analysis of the social requisites of democracy. International Social Science Journal45:155-175.
39.
MacPherson, C. B. [1962] 1977. The political economy of possessive individualism: Hobbes to Locke. London: Oxford University Press.
40.
Maoz, Zeev , and Bruce Russett. 1992. Alliance, contiguity, wealth, and political stability: Is the lack of conflict among democracies a statistical artifact?International Interactions17:245-267.
41.
Maoz, Zeev , and Bruce Russett. 1993. Normative and structural causes of democratic peace 1946-1986. American Political Science Review87:624-638.
42.
Marx, Karl . [1867] 1952. Capital. Founders' ed.Chicago: Encyclopaedia Britannica.
43.
Mintz, Sidney Wilfred . 1985. Sweetness and power. New York: Viking.
44.
Mousseau, Michael . 1997. Democracy and militarized interstate collaboration. Journal of Peace Research34:73-88.
45.
Mousseau, Michael . 1998. Democracy and compromise in militarized interstate conflicts, 1816-1992. Journal of Conflict Resolution42:210-230.
46.
Mousseau, Michael , and Yuhang Shi. 1999. A test for reverse causality in the democratic peace relationship. Journal of Peace Research36:639-663.
47.
Muller, Edward N. , and Mitchell A. Seligson. 1994. Civic culture and democracy: The question of causal relationships. American Political Science Review88:635-652.
48.
Murphy, Martin F. , and Maxine L. Margolis. 1995. An introduction to cultural materialism. In Science, materialism, and the study of culture, edited by Martin F. Murphy and Maxine L. Margolis, 1-4. Gainesville: University Press of Florida.
49.
O'Donnell, Guillermo . 1973. Modernization and bureaucratic-authoritarianism: Studies in South American politics. Berkeley: University of California Press.
50.
Oneal, John R. , Frances Oneal, Zeev Maoz, and Bruce Russett. 1996. The liberal peace: Interdependence, democracy, and international conflict, 1950-1985. Journal of Peace Research33:11-38.
51.
Oneal, John R. , and James Lee Ray. 1997. New tests of the democratic peace controlling for economic interdependence 1950-1985. Political Research Quarterly50:751-775.
52.
Oneal, John R. , and Bruce Russett. 1997. The classical liberals were right: Democracy, interdependence, and conflict 1950-1985. International Studies Quarterly41:267-294.
53.
Oneal, John R. , and Bruce Russett. 1999. The Kantian peace: The pacific benefits of democracy, interdependence, and international organizations. World Politics52:1-37.
54.
Oneal, John R. , and Bruce Russett. 2000. Why “an identified systemic model of the democracy-peace nexus” does not persuade. Defence and Peace Economics11: in press.
55.
Page, Benjamin I. , and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1992. The rational public: Fifty years of trends in Americans' policy preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
56.
Parsons, Talcott . 1964. Evolutionary universals in society. American Sociological Review29:339-357.
57.
Peceny, Mark . 1999. The social construction of democracy. International Studies Review1:95-104.
58.
Przeworski, Adam , Michael Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi. 1997. What makes democracies endure? In Consolidating the third wave of democracies, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien, 295-311. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
59.
Przeworski, Adam , and Fernando Limongi. 1997. Modernization: Theories and facts. World Politics49:155-183.
60.
Raknerud, Arvid , and Håvard Hegre. 1997. The hazard of war: Reassessing the evidence for the democratic peace. Journal of Peace Research34:385-404.
61.
Ray, James Lee . 1995. Democracy and international conflict. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
62.
Raymond, Gregory A.1994. Democracies, disputes, and third-party intermediaries. Journal of Conflict Resolution38:24-42.
63.
Rengger, N.J. , and John Campbell. 1995. Treaties and alliances of the world. 6th ed.New York: Stockton.
64.
Rosecrance, Richard . 1986. The rise of the trading state: Commerce and conquest in the modern world. New York: Basic Books.
65.
Rostow, W. W. 1960. The stages of economic growth. London: Cambridge University Press.
66.
Rueschemeyer, Dietrich , Evelyne Huber Stephens, and John D. Stephens. 1992. Capitalist development and democracy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
67.
Rummel, Rudolph J. 1979. War, power, and peace. Vol. 4, Understanding conflict and war. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
68.
Russett, Bruce . 1993. Grasping the democratic peace: Principles for a post-cold war world. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
69.
Russett, Bruce , John R. Oneal, and David R. Davis. 1998. The third leg of the Kantian tripod: International organizations and militarized disputes, 1950-85. International Organization52:441-467.
70.
Sider, Gerald M. 1986. Culture and class in anthropology and history: A Newfoundland illustration. New York: Cambridge University.
71.
Singer, J. David . 1995. Alliances, 1816-1984. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Correlates of War Project.
72.
Singer, J. David , and Melvin Small. 1995. National material capabilities data. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Correlates of War Project.
73.
Siverson, Randolph M. , and Harvey Starr. 1991. The diffusion of war: A study of opportunity and willingness. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.
74.
Summers, Robert, and Alan Heston . 1991. The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An expanded set of international comparisons, 1950-1988. Quarterly Journal of Economics106:327-368.
75.
Tönnies, Ferdinand . [1887] 1957. Community and society, gemeinschaft und gesellschaft. Translated by Charles Loomis. East Lansing: Michigan State University Press.
76.
Watson, Adam . 1992. The evolution of international society. New York: Routledge.
77.
Weber, Max . [1904-5] 1958. The Protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism. Translated by Talcott Parsons. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons.
78.
Weber, Max . 1978. Economy and society: An outline of interpretive sociology. Edited by Guenther Roth and Claus Wittich, translated by Ephraim Fischoff. Berkeley: University of California Press.
79.
Weede, Eriche . 1996. Economic development, social order, and world politics. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
80.
Wittkopf, Eugene R. 1990. Faces of internationalism: Public opinion and American foreign policy. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
