TEST SEIRCRT |ˈsəːkrɪt |: For the Health of Our Communities

Abstract

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases that are being confirmed in Canada provide an opportunity to expand the epidemic model for the simulation of disease infection spread: Susceptible- Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR). This paper develops a SEIRCRT |ˈsəːkrɪt | model that integrates the Institute for Disease Modeling’s SEIR model and Critical Race Theory (CRT) to answer the question: What is in a SEIRCRT model? SEIRCRT provides a basic modeling structure from a CRT lens to simulate, predict and forecast COVID-19 cases, comorbidities affecting African Canadians, and deaths through predictive modeling. Knowledge of SEIRCRT is critical to characterize the severity of COVID-19 in this early stage. To this end, the purpose of this paper is to describe SEIRCRT’s model and summarize its key characteristics. SEIRCRT as a public health framework provides insight into the conclusions drawn about race and COVID-19, and expands our thinking about what health disparities mean for African Canadian communities.