Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

This paper discusses instances of growing military involvement, unceasing political crises and deepening economic grievances impacting Pakistan. The study contributes to the existing literature on three accounts: first, by taking Pakistan’s current context fuelled with regard to growing military engagement, strained civil–military relations and economic uncertainties, second, by explaining the relevance of the joint endogeneity principle with respect to political instability and economic growth and third, by theorizing the linkage of the political spectrum through existing hypotheses. It concludes that Pakistan needs to adopt sequential policy restructuring mechanisms and restore political stability to eliminate military involvement from its political fabric.

Keywords

Pakistan military involvement political instability endogeneity economic uncertainty policymaking

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Abbas

Baig

Straquadine

(2022) Impacts of climate change on agricultural labour force and food security in Pakistan: the importance of climate-smart agriculture. In: Behnassi

Baig

Sraïri

, et al (eds) Food Security and Climate-Smart Food Systems. Cham: Springer, pp.51–66.

Afzal

Mirza

Arshad

(2020) Pakistan’s poverty puzzle: role of foreign aid, democracy & media. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 34(1): 368–382.

Aisen

Veiga

(2013) How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy 29: 151–167.

Ake

(1975) A definition of political stability. Comparative Politics 7(2): 271–283.

Alesina

Perotti

(1996) Income distribution, political instability, and investment. European Economic Review 40(6): 1203–1228.

Alesina

Özler

Roubini

, et al (1996) Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth 1(2): 189–211.

Almeida

(2022) What led to leader Imran Khan’s downfall in Pakistan? Al Jazeera, 9 April. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/9/analysis-end-of-imran-khans-term (accessed 14 July 2023).

Almond

Powell

(1966) Comparative Politics: A Developmental Approach. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.

Amin

(2023) IMF revises Pakistan’s GDP growth projections downward. Business Recorder, 1 February. Available at: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40223699 (accessed 6 September 2023).

10.

Annett

(2001) Social fractionalization, political instability, and the size of government. IMF Staff Papers 48(3): 561–592. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/4621684 (accessed 19 January 2023).

11.

Asteriou

Price

(2001) Political instability and economic growth: UK time series evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 48(4): 383–399.

12.

Barro

(1991) Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2): 407–443.

13.

Benedict

Mafika

Tutu

, et al (2022) The effects of political risk on foreign exchange demand: evidence from Zimbabwe. Cogent Economics & Finance 10(1): 2111806.

14.

Bernal-Verdugo

Furceri

Guillaume

(2013) The dynamic effect of social and political instability on output: the role of reforms. IMF Working Papers 13(91). Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1391.pdf

15.

Brookings (2022) What is happening in Pakistan’s continuing crisis? Brookings, 20 May. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-happening-in-pakistans-continuing-crisis/ (accessed 9 July 2023).

16.

BTI Transformation Index (2022) BTI 2022 Myanmar country report. Available at: https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/MMR

17.

Business Recorder (2023) Senate passes Army Act amendment bill. Available at: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40254961/senate-passes-army-act-amendment-bill (accessed 11 September 2023).

18.

Chaudhry

(2023) Civil war? Dawn, 20 May. Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1754482 (accessed 13 July 2023).

19.

Cukierman

Tabellini

(1992) Seigniorage and political instability. The American Economic Review 82(3): 537–555. Available at: https://www.alexcuk.sites.tau.ac.il/_files/ugd/179175_3f2ced27c95a493cbbd0b5855e0c0dae.pdf?index=true

20.

Dawn (2007) The economy under Pervez Musharraf. Dawn, 31 January. Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/271347/the-economy-under-pervez-musharraf (accessed 13 July 2023).

21.

Devereux

Wen

J-F

(1998) Political instability, capital taxation, and growth. European Economic Review 42(9): 1635–1651.

22.

Duho

KCT

Amankwa

Musah-Surugu

(2020) Determinants and convergence of government effectiveness in Africa and Asia. Public Administration and Policy: An Asia-Pacific Journal 23(2): 199–215.

23.

Eaton

Gersovitz

(1981) Debt with potential repudiation: theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies 48(2): 289–309.

24.

Edwards

Tabellini

(1991) Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries. Journal of International Money and Finance 10: S16–S48.

25.

Feng

(2001) Political freedom, political instability, and policy uncertainty: a study of political institutions and private investment in developing countries. International Studies Quarterly 45(2): 271–294. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3096111

26.

Finance Division, Government of Pakistan (2023) Federal budget 2023-24. Available at: https://www.finance.gov.pk/budget/Budget_2023_24/Budget_in_Brief.pdf (accessed 10 July 2023).

27.

Finer

(1974) The man on horseback-1974. Armed Forces & Society 1(1): 5–27.

28.

Fossum

(1967) Factors influencing the occurrence of military coups d’etat in Latin America. Journal of Peace Research 4(3): 228–251.

29.

Franzese

and Maxwell European Union Center (2005) The joint endogeneity of inequality and unemployment, redistribution and insurance, and participation: a theoretical and empirical model. In: Prepared for conference on ‘democracy, inequality, and representation: Europe in comparative perspective’ political participation, inequality, and the social safety net: multiple equilibria, endogeneity, and empirical estimation, 6 May. Available at: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~franzese/PartRedistSocSftyNet.pdf (accessed 13 July 2023).

30.

Fraser

Davies

(2023) Imran Khan: Pakistan’s Supreme Court rules arrest was illegal. BBC News, 11 May. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65561807

31.

García-Sánchez

I-M

Cuadrado-Ballesteros

Frías-Aceituno

J-V

(2014) Does media freedom improve government effectiveness? A comparative cross-country analysis. European Journal of Law and Economics 42(3): 515–537.

32.

Ghoshal

(2009) The anatomy of military interventions in Asia. India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 65(1): 67–82.

33.

Grilli

Masciandaro

Tabellini

, et al (1991) Political and monetary institutions and public financial policies in the industrial countries. Economic Policy 6(13): 342–392.

34.

Gurgul

Lach

(2013) Political instability and economic growth: evidence from two decades of transition in CEE. Communist and Post-Communist Studies 46. Available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52230/ (accessed 20 October 2023).

35.

Hanneman

Steinback

(1990) Military involvement and political instability: an event history analysis 1940-1980. Journal of Political & Military Sociology 18(1): 1–23. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/45294004 (accessed 11 July 2023).

36.

Himal Southasian (2023) How can Pakistan end the military’s role in politics? Himal Southasian, 15 February. Available at: https://www.himalmag.com/pakistan-military-role-in-politics-reform-economy-parliament-crises/ (accessed 6 September 2023)

37.

Horowitz

(2023) Pakistan’s political crisis will deepen its economic misery. CNN Business, 12 May. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/economy/pakistan-political-crisis-economy-default/index.html

38.

Huntington

(1957) The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

39.

Hussain

(2009) The role of politics in Pakistan’s economy. Journal of International Affairs 63(1): 1–18. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24384169 (accessed 14 July 2023).

40.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023a) IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Pakistan on a US$3 billion stand-by arrangement. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/30/pr23251-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-pakistan-on-a-us-3-billion-stand-by-arrangement (accessed 10 July 2023).

41.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023b) Real GDP growth. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

42.

Iqbal

Starr

(2008) Bad neighbors: failed states and their consequences. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25(4): 315–331. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/26275150 (accessed 11 July 2023).

43.

Jamshed

Islam

(2021) Cost of Pakistan-US relationship after 9/11. Palarch’s Journal of Archaeology of Egypt/Egyptology 18. Available at: https://archives.palarch.nl/index.php/jae/article/download/9964/9159/19518#:~:text=In%202016%2D17%2C%20Pakistan%20economy,(Dawn%2C2018).&text=social%20cost%20for%20Pakistan

44.

Janowitz

(1964) The military in the political development of new nations. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 20(8): 6–10.

45.

Janowitz

(1977) Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.

46.

Khan

(2018) The regime of Ayub Khan and Pakistani society. Pakistan Journal of Applied Social Sciences 8(1): 41–52.

47.

Koonings

Kruijt

(2002) Political Armies: The Military and Nation Building in the Age of Democracy. London; New York: Zed Books.

48.

Krueger

(1974) The political economy of the rent-seeking society. The American Economic Review 64(3): 291–303. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1808883 (accessed 19 November 2022).

49.

Kugelman

(2018) Pakistan’s ruling PMLN party is on the defensive, but don’t count it out. Asia Dispatches, 3 April. Available at: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/pakistans-ruling-pmln-party-the-defensive-dont-count-it-out (accessed 14 July 2023).

50.

Kukereja

(1982) Military intervention in politics: contrasting cases of Pakistan and India. India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 38(3–4): 302–316.

51.

Kumar Barai

(2020) Bangladesh’s Economic and Social Progress. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan.

52.

Landau

(1986) Government and economic growth in the less developed countries: an empirical study for 1960–1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change 35(1): 35–75. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1154144 (accessed 24 January 2024).

53.

Livemint (2023) Pakistan has to repay $2.44 billion of external debt in July 2023. Livemint, 22 July. Available at: https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-has-to-repay-usd-2-44-billion-of-external-debt-in-july-2023-11690013913539.html (accessed 27 October 2023).

54.

Looney

(2008) The Musharraf paradox: the failure of an economic success story. The Open Area Studies Journal 1(1): 1–15.

55.

Lovell

(1970) The Military and Politics in Five Developing Nations. Kensington: American Institutes for Research, Center for Research in Social Systems.

56.

Mahmood

(2022) The rule of military in Pakistan: an agent of change? A socio-political comparative analysis of Ayub Khan and Zia-ul-Haq. Journal of Psychology and Political Science 3(31): 1–15.

57.

Mahmud

Asadullah

Savoia

(2013) Bangladesh’s achievements in social development indicators: explaining the puzzle. Policy brief, April. Available at: https://www.theigc.org/sites/default/files/2015/04/Mahmud-Et-Al-2013-Policy-Brief.pdf

58.

Majeed

MacDonald

(2010) Corruption and the military in politics: theory and evidence from around the world. 1 December. Available at: https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/Media_184189_smxx.pdf (accessed 9th July 2023).

59.

Mehdi

(2018) Why NGOs in Pakistan are at the brink of extinction. The Wire, 17 November. Available at: https://thewire.in/south-asia/why-ngos-in-pakistan-are-at-the-brink-of-extinction (accessed 20 October 2023).

60.

Michaud Emin

(2007) The restructuring of the military high command in the seventh harmonization package and its ramifications for civil–military relations in Turkey. Turkish Studies 8(1): 25–42. Available at: https://www.academia.edu/4029261/The_Restructuring_of_the_Military_High_Command_in_the_Seventh_Harmonization_Package_and_its_Ramifications_for_Civil_Military_Relations_in_Turkey (accessed 16th July 2023).

61.

Mukhtar

(2023) Senate passes Pak Army (Amend) Bill 2023. Available at: https://www.nation.com.pk/28-Jul-2023/senate-passes-pak-army-amend-bill-2023 (accessed 11 September 2023).

62.

Olson

(1982) The Rise and Decline of Nations. Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

63.

Omri

Shahbaz

Chaibi

, et al (2015) A panel analysis of the effects of oil consumption, international tourism, environmental quality and political instability on economic growth in MENA region. Working papers 2015-613. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipg/wpaper/2015-613.html (accessed 12 July 2023).

64.

Oxford Analytica (2017) Pakistan may require another IMF bailout. Available at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-DB225057/full/html

65.

Oxford Analytica (2023) IMF deal will only bring Pakistan brief respite. Available at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-ES280207/full/html

66.

Rainey

Steinbauer

(1999) Galloping elephants: developing elements of a theory of effective government organizations. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 9(1): 1–32.

67.

Rashid

(2003) Civil society by design: donors, NGOs, and the intermestic development circle in Bangladesh. The Journal of Asian Studies 62(4): 1303–1305.

68.

Roy

(2021) Basket case to beacon. The Journal of Psychotherapy Practice and Research 14: 93–105. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353932391_Basket_case_to_Beacon

69.

Salman

(2018) Opinion: five years in power – PML-N largely delivered on promises. The Express Tribune, 4 June. Available at: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1726991/opinion-five-years-power-pml-n-largely-delivered-promises (accessed 14 July 2023).

70.

Sarfraz

(2023) FBR issues increased income tax slabs for the salaried class. Business Recorder, 26 June. Available at: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40249818 (accessed 10 July 2023).

71.

Guramani

(2023) Senate passes Army Act amendment bill proposing up to 5 years in jail for disclosing sensitive information. Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1767084 (accessed 13 February 2024).

72.

Shah

(2019) Pakistan in 2018: theft of an election. Asian Survey 59(1): 98–107. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26606160 (accessed 14 July 2023).

73.

Smelser

(2001) International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. Amsterdam: Elsevier; Pergamon.

74.

Strategic Comments (2007) Musharraf’s rule in Pakistan. Strategic Comments 10(10): 1–2.

75.

Sweidan

(2017) The influence of political regime vs political instability on real output. Journal of Economic Studies 44(1): 154–167.

76.

Tannahill

(1975) Military intervention in search of a dependent variable. Journal of Political & Military Sociology 3(2): 219–228. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/45293664 (accessed 12 July 2023).

77.

Tarar

(2023) The trial of civilians in military courts under Pakistan Army Act and the Official Secrets Act. The Nation, 22 June. Available at: https://www.nation.com.pk/22-Jun-2023/the-trial-of-civilians-in-military-courts-under-pakistan-army-act-and-the-official-secrets-act (accessed 6 September 2023).

78.

The Economist (2023) Imran Khan loses his battle with Pakistan’s army. The Economist, 1 June. Available at: https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/06/01/imran-khan-loses-his-battle-with-pakistans-army (accessed 9 July 2023).

79.

The Express Tribune (2023) A legislative journey of 15th NA. The Express Tribune, 15 August. Available at: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2430798/a-legislative-journey-of-15th-na (accessed 11 September 2023).

80.

Trading Economics (2023a) Labor force, female – 1990-2019 data| 2020 forecast. Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/labor-force-female-percent-of-total-labor-force-wb-data.html (accessed 16 July 2023).

81.

Trading Economics (2023b) Pakistan – credit rating. Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/rating#:~:text=Standard%20%26%20Poor (accessed 10 July 2023).

82.

Trinkunas

(2000) Crafting civilian control in emerging democracies: Argentina and Venezuela. Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 42(3): 77–109.

83.

Ullah

(2015) NGOs trust crisis in Pakistan – Who is at Stake? SSRN Electronic Journal. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2696039

84.

Varela

(2023) Global integration can spur productivity growth in Pakistan. Available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/global-integration-can-spur-productivity-growth-pakistan (accessed 16 July 2023).

85.

Wasim

(2016) 50 commercial entities being run by armed forces. Dawn, 21 July. Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1272211 (accessed 16 July 2023).

86.

World Bank (2019a) Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)| data. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?view=chart (accessed 16 July 2023).

87.

World Bank (2019b) Military expenditure (% of GDP)| data. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS (accessed 5 July 2023).

88.

World Bank (2019c) Total reserves (includes gold, current US$)| data. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?view=chart (accessed 16 July 2023).

89.

World Bank (2023) Overview. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/bangladesh/overview#2 (accessed 10 July 2023).

90.

World Bank (n.d.) DataBank metadata glossary. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/FI.RES.TOTL.MO#:~:text=Total%20reserves%20comprise%20holdings%20of,the%20control%20of%20monetary%20authorities (accessed 26 October 2023).

91.

Ali

(2020) The novel changes in Pakistan’s party politics: analysis of causes and impacts. Chinese Political Science Review 5(4): 513–533.

92.

Yousaf

(2023) Defence budget jacked up by 16%. The Express Tribune, 10 June. Available at: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2421038/defence-budget-jacked-up-by-16 (accessed 6 September 2023).

93.

Zaman

(2023) Munich personal RePEc archive lessons from Pakistan’s economic crisis: navigating the perils of a Banana Republic: lessons from Pakistan’s economic crisis. Politica 1(1): 33–41.

94.

Zimmermann

(1979) Toward a causal model of military coups d’etat. Armed Forces & Society 5(3): 387–413.

95.

Zuberi

(2023) The reality behind Pakistan’s industries shutting down. Modern Diplomacy, 6 May. Available at: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/06/the-reality-behind-pakistans-industries-shutting-down/ (accessed 16 July 2023).

A Deepening Political Crisis,Military Involvement and Economic Woes: Evidence From Pakistan

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References