Abstract
74.1309 ADIDA, Claire L., et al. —
Diversity’s effect on violence is ambiguous. Some studies find that diverse areas experience more violence; others find the opposite. Yet conflict displaces and intimidates people, creating measurement challenges. We propose a novel indicator of diversity that circumvents these problems: the location of physical structures at disaggregated geographical levels. We introduce this solution in the context of the Troubles in Northern Ireland. Our data reveal a curvilinear relationship between diversity and conflictrelated deaths, with the steepest increase at low diversity, driven by an increase in violence when our proxy for the Catholic proportion of the population rises from 0 to 20 percent. These patterns are consistent with a theory of group threat through exposure. [R]
74.1310 AKBULUT-YUKSEL, Mevlude ; RAHMAN, Muhammad Habibur ; ULUBAŞOĞLU, Mehmet Ali —
Combining three datasets, the Australian Longitudinal Census Panel of 2006 and 2011, engineering data on flood-water height, and administrative data on government relief assistance, we investigate whether and how the government’s post-disaster relief payments helped the economic recovery from riverine floods that struck the state of Queensland in Australia in 2010/11. Using a difference-in-differences methodology that compares the flooded areas with unflooded zones within Queensland whereby the flooded zones differed in their levels of flooding and the government’s relief assistance, we find that the government’s disaster relief assistance was effective in economic recovery, having led individuals residing in flooded areas with average flood height to experience a 3.4 percent rise in (self-reported) income following the disaster, relative to those individuals living in unflooded areas of the state. Our findings are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, including migration, parallel trends, spatial spillovers, and possible confounders. [R]
74.1311 AL-UBAYDLI, Omar —
Developing an effective security architecture for the Middle East region is a complex problem that is facilitated by the production of pertinent scholarly research. Homegrown research is especially important, as it is more likely to feature the requisite nuanced understanding of local issues than is external research. Based on a small dataset, this paper makes the suggestive argument that at present, the academic literature on Middle East security is dominated by external research, and the limited volume of homegrown research is of lower quality than that produced externally. This state of affairs constitutes an obstacle to the formulation of a sustainable and effective Middle East security architecture. Consequently, policymakers should consider ways of boosting homegrown research on Middle East security. [R]
74.1312 ALBERTUS, Michael —
Many authoritarian regimes use policy-based strategies of social control instead of more coercive tools like repression. When these regimes transition to democracy, do authoritarian successors pay a political price for such policies? This article examines the political cost of one common authoritarian policy of social control — land settlement schemes — in Spain. The Franco dictatorship initiated a decades-long program to ameliorate land pressure by resettling excess rural labor in hundreds of new government-created towns in colonization zones throughout the country. This article examines post-democratization voting patterns in municipalities containing new towns compared to a counterfactual set of proximate similar municipalities that were also in government-created colonization zones. I find that land settlement caused a backlash once Spain returned to democracy: voters disproportionately supported the left at the expense of the regime’s successor parties. [R, abr.]
74.1313 ALEXANDER-SHAW, Kate ; GANDERSON, Joseph ; SCHELKLE, Waltraud —
The EU presents a puzzle to political systems scholars: how can a developing polity, with all its attendant functional weaknesses, be rendered politically stable even through moments of a policy crisis? Building on insights from the literature on fiscal federalism, this article challenges much conventional wisdom on Europe’s incompleteness. This is based on the corollary of Jonathan Rodden’s concept of Hamilton’s Paradox: whereas a strong centre cannot resist exploitation by states because it has the means to rescue them, a weak centre’s lack of exploitable capacity may induce states to support, and even empower, it in a crisis. This article argues that in providing a contemporaneous stress-test, Covid-19 serves to expose both the pathologies of a strong-centred federation and the surprising resilience of a weak one. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.1100]
74.1314 ALSHAMARY, Marsin —
Iraq’s experiment with democratization rarely receives the attention it deserves, having been tarnished by association with the misbegotten U.S. invasion. This essay reflects on the progress that has been made over the twenty years since the invasion and on the challenges that lie ahead. It argues that although Iraq is plagued by corruption, armed actors, and rising poverty and inequality, it is not condemned to failure. Iraq has held regular parliamentary elections since 2005 and is a positive outlier in the region. Although today it stands at a crossroads between democratization and multiparty authoritarianism, there is cause for hope that its youth and civil society will pave the way for reform. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1426]
74.1315 ANDERSSON, Jenny ; OLSEN, Niklas —
This essay introduces the theme issue about libertarianism in the Nordics since the 1980s. It sets out the key ambition of our theme issue, namely to de-Americanize and transnationalize the study of libertarianism by approaching libertarianism as a movement and an ideology that has been introduced, translated and adapted into very different regional and national contexts across the world. In so doing, the essay argues that the historical conditions for libertarianism in the Nordics were set by the heritage of welfare statism, social democracy and social liberalism, in ways that underscored its nature as counter-ideology and protest. We argue that there is a distinct temporality across the Nordics, and we introduce the main contents of the issue contributions on, respectively, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland. [R] [Introduction to a thematic issue on " Nordic libertarianism". See Abstr. 74.13, 698, 714, 740]
74.1316 BABONES, Salvatore ; BABCICKY, Philipp ; GUBIN, Oleg —
Throughout Russian history, bouts of political reform have been repeatedly succeeded by reactionary periods of counter-reform. We surmise that this historical alternation of reform and counter-reform has been driven at least in part by comparisons made by Russians between their own situation and that of their counterparts in the west. Such "relative deprivation" understandings of political change are nothing new, but we tie the history of impetus for reform in Russia explicitly to fluctuations in economic performance in the capitalist west, as represented by Kondratiev waves (K-waves) of expansion and stagnation. We posit that periods of expansion in the west have prompted periods of political reform in Russia, while periods of stagnation in the west have enabled periods of counter-reform in Russia. [R, abr.]
74.1317 BACH, Maurizio —
This article examines the symbolic-performative dimensions and social functions of public fear communication during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. The central hypothesis is: during the Corona crisis, public fear communication enabled the political center to channel the unprecedented uncertainties that arose among the general population in view of the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 and to morally and politically legitimize the efforts of solidarity and cooperation that were required to contain the pandemic. Based on exemplary cases of political fear rhetoric, the most striking topoi and persuasion strategies of public crisis communication are first isolated on a descriptive level. In a further analytical step, fundamental sociological references of the fear problem are elaborated and applied to the sociological analysis of pandemic politics. [R]
74.1318 BAEZ-CAMARGO, Claudia ; COSTA, Jacopo ; KOECHLIN, Lucy —
The paper interprets informal networks as investments made by citizens and business people to cope with the public sphere. Informal networks often orchestrate corruption, connecting public and private actors. The paper aims to understand their key characteristics, scopes, and functional roles. Ten mini-case studies from Tanzania and Uganda are studied. The research applies narrative analysis to explore the experiences of citizens, entrepreneurs, and low-level public officials, who built informal networks as a problem-solving mechanism. It uses a grounded theory approach. The findings serve as working hypotheses about variables and patterns emerging from the bottom-up analysis. The paper outlines: (1) whether there are distinct types of informal networks associated with particular types of corruption; (2) how, why and by whom these networks are built; (3) whether different individuals play specific roles; (4) the unwritten expectations and norms that govern such networks. [R, abr.]
74.1319 BAKINER, Onur —
Why do so many regimes remain competitive authoritarian? This article argues that institutional path dependence explains the persistence of competitive authoritarian regimes in which electoral competition exists, but is unfair. The weakness of institutions regulating free and fair interparty competition, like multi-candidate elections, a constitution and statutes safeguarding fundamental rights, and intrapartycompetition, like intraparty democracy, is path-dependent and self-reinforcing. In settings where competition is partly free and fair, ruling elites have an incentive to combine democratic and undemocratic laws and policies to defeat counterelites and neutralize intraparty competitors. The likely long-term outcome is a vicious cycle of limited democratization, competitive authoritarian regime formation, and competitive authoritarian regime consolidation. I assess the argument by tracing the historical trajectory of reforms on constitutionalism, civil liberties, and multi-candidate competition in post-1950 Turkey, where the limits on interparty and intraparty competition have been reproduced in remarkable historical continuity. [R]
74.1320 BARRENECHEA, Rodrigo ; VERGARA, Alberto —
Peru’s democracy is dying. The country made international headlines after a cycle of political instability that left behind seven presidents in seven years, a failed coup, and 60 people dead after violent protests and brutal repression by the government. However, unlike the usual stories about democracy falling prey to the military or a popular strongman dismantling it from within, Peru’s democracy is dying not from power concentration but from power dilution. Electoral fragmentation, political amateurism, and weak linkages with society have left politics populated by politicians willing to break democratic norms to make short-term gains. We call that process “democratic hollowing.” [R]
74.1321 BARUA, Ushree ; KHALED, Abu Faisal Md. —
The spread of the Grameen Bank microfinance model has received global attention. The article discusses when and how the model traveled “North”. It finds that both specialized actors, such as policy ambassadors, and permissive local contexts were crucial in these adoptions. The US seemed more permissive, partly due to network ties and because of a neoliberal approach to social policy together with a strong focus on gender norms. In Europe, however, reception differed. The adoption of the Grameen model thus offers interesting insights into the South-North policy transfer of social innovations. [R]
74.1322 BATES, Geoff, et al. —
The aim of this article is to explore the types of health evidence that diverse actors find most persuasive in a complex policy system. The impact of evidence depends on many factors, including how it is presented and translated to audiences. If diverse actors are to address complex health challenges collectively, it helps if they can draw on evidence that is accessible and meaningful to all. We explore how this can be done through a case study of promoting healthy urban development in the United Kingdom. Based on 132 in-depth interviews with critical actors from across the urban development system, we examined the types of evidence actors find most helpful. While there was some variation by sector, actors revealed a strong preference for narratives with a strong emotional impact, supported by credible evidence. Urban development decision makers are persuaded by both qualitative and quantitative evidence, although there was a slight preference among the public sector for quantitative data. [R, abr.]
74.1323 BAYAT, Asef —
How do we make sense of Iran’s “Women, Life, Freedom,” the extraordinary political uprising that came into being following the death of the Kurdish Mahsa Zhina Amini in September 2022 in police custody following her arrest for wearing an “improper” hijab? This is neither a “feminist revolution” per se, nor simply the revolt of the new generation, nor is it merely about the mandatory hijab. This is a movement to reclaim life, a struggle to liberate free and dignified existence from an internal colonization. As the primary objects of this colonization, women have become the protagonists of a movement that may set the Islamic Republic on a revolutionary course. [R]
74.1324 BENN, Alex —
Following the death of a monarch and the crowning of another, this article considers monarchy as a topic in political theory. It seeks to revitalise the topic, which has been given limited attention by political theorists in recent years. It identifies traditional objections to monarchy, alongside newer objections that attack it (particularly the British institution) for being racist and imperialist. However, those objections — though increasingly common — are not fatal to monarchy as an idea. This article develops an argument against monarchy based on the concept of classism: discrimination based on a person’s class. Reframing familiar criticisms of monarchy for being elitist and snobbish, the anti-classism argument draws on discrimination theory to outline the best objection to monarchy at the conceptual level. [R]
74.1325 BENNETT, Vernon Noel —
New Zealand and Singapore are both capable small states with notably different security and defence concerns. The relative level of commitment that Singapore provides to its military forces in comparison to New Zealand is not only a reflection of the tremendous economic, social and technological development that has occurred in the city state since its independence, but is also due the different perceptions, discretion and motivation that each state has regarding the role and utility of their military instruments. The differences in their military capabilities also reflect how each has responded to their particular circumstances as small states. New Zealand has, to a large extent, worked within the constraints expected of small states while Singapore has striven to overcome them. However, the military capabilities of both states are significantly influenced by their characteristics as small states, and these form the basis of the challenges that they are likely to face going forward. This article examines key factors and elements underpinning why New Zealand and Singapore have developed markedly different military forces in the period from 1965 to 2022 in order to understand the extent to which their characteristics as small states have influenced their respective approaches to force development. [R]
74.1326 BERG, Eiki ; YÜKSEL, İzzet Yalin —
This paper focuses on the patron-client relationship (PCR) between Turkey and Northern Cyprus. The PCR becomes visible in asymmetrically configured reciprocal exchanges that create dependence on patron states. These exchanges may motivate de facto states to defy, dictate, or demand patronage from their patron states, depending on their ontological insecurities, which are expressed both by the public in general and by the political elite in particular. The paper investigates the elite navigations that occur when de facto authorities prioritize local political interests to compensate for the failure of self-realization stemming from non-recognition or when they seek to mitigate external dominance. [R]
74.1327 BÉRUT, Chloé —
This article presents a new “chemical” framework, through which heterogeneous observations on public policy-making can be systematically interpreted. This chemical framework is based on a combination of policy stages and John W. Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework. This framework has three points of potential analytical leverage, which are identified in this article: the conceptualisation of temporal triggers that go beyond agenda-setting, the opportunity to conduct holistic analyses of the policy processes, and a focus on the connections between policy stages and the way these connections affect the three streams. These three dimensions are explored by analysing the process of soft Europeanisation occurring in French, Austrian, and Irish digital health (eHealth) policies. The empirical sections therefore detail how EU-induced changes may be conceptualised using the chemical framework, highlighting avenues for future research in Europeanisation and policy studies. [R]
74.1328 BÉRUT, Chloé ; SAURUGGER, Sabine —
Since the COVID-19 crisis, digital health or (‘eHealth’) technologies have been a prominent element of domestic political agendas. However, in France, their emergence on the political agenda had already been linked to another type of crisis: the continuous and enduring crisis concerning the financing of the French healthcare system between 1995 and 2004. This article sheds light on the conditions under which digital health technologies may be adopted as ‘solutions’ amidst financial constraint and austerity, based on an in-depth study of the French case. Using the Multiple Streams Framework, combined with a comparative and qualitative methodology, this article explains why digital health technologies were adopted as a central instrument of the 2004 French healthcare reform (the Douste-Blazy reform), but not during the 1995 social welfare reforms (the Juppé plan). [R, abr.]
74.1329 BIRNBAUM, Maria —
In this article I consider religion in international political scholarship and suggest a study of its epistemological politics and conceptual history. I argue that scholarship which strives to ‘engage’ or ‘recognize’ religion in global politics remain ignorant of the costs involved. Building on this argument, I ask if the troubles with recognizing religion reflect more basic qualities of recognition scholarship. Following the work by Jacques Rancière, Patchen Markell, Elizabeth Povinelli, and Jens Bartelson I argue that recognition has two faces and that along with its frequently acknowledged empowering aspect, it also comes with costs. In order to assess the costs of recognition I propose a study of its conditions of possibility, that is, a study of the ways in which the subjects of recognition become recognizable as such. In the final section of the paper, I apply this to the example of religion in global politics and the formation of the Muslim subject in the lead-up to the partition of British India and the founding of Pakistan. [R]
74.1330 BLANC, Francesca ; COTELLA, Giancarlo —
Since the 2016 Habitat III conference, the global urban policy framework based on the New Urban Agenda and the related Sustainable Development Goals (SDG11) has been adopted in an increasing number of countries worldwide. Through a comparative methodological approach, the paper analyses the making process of the Ecuadorian National Urban Agenda and the Bolivian National Urban Policy from the perspective of the involved international agents, to reflect upon the role of the time dimension in the localisation of global urban policy and its relationship with the policy transfer space. In doing so, the analysis sheds light on the role played by sequence and timing in influencing the outcomes of the localisation process. [R]
74.1331 BORWEIN, Sophie, et al. —
A growing body of comparative public policy research examines the effects of delegated delivery of public services and the related emergence of what is labelled a submerged state that obscures the role of government in the provision of public services. Data limitations have constrained investigations of these dynamics in Canada, including for K–12 education. In this research note, we draw on charitable tax records and provincial and federal spending data to present the evolution of provincial and federal financial support for independent schools over time, drawing on the case of British Columbia (BC). By factoring in indirect support through various tax mechanisms, we establish that BC independent schools have seen increasing financial support from both the federal and provincial governments in recent decades, primarily via tax expenditures tied to their charitable status — a “not hidden but not visible” shift in public expenditure that has substantial political, distributive and accountability implications. [R]
74.1332 BOUSSAGUET, Laurie ; FAUCHER, Florence ; FREUDLSPERGER, Christian —
The role of the symbolic is often overlooked in the public policy literature. Yet, it is a key component of public action, particularly in crisis management. During the Covid-19 pandemic, all democratic states needed to carry out cognitive and emotional work to persuade their citizens to show solidarity and comply with heavy restrictions. The near-simultaneous occurrence of the pandemic’s first wave (March-May 2020) allows us to compare the patterns of symbolic crisis management across four European countries (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Our analysis finds significant variation in governments’ usage of the symbolic. We analyse leaders’ performances (wordcraft and stagecraft) as they try to reassure citizens, unite the nation, and legitimise themselves and their decisions. Our article shows not only that national leaders pay great attention to the symbolic in the management of crises, but also that their performances differ systematically in line with their personas and distinct national political cultures. [R]
74.1333 BRENDLER, Viktoria —
This paper contributes a comparative perspective on societal involvement in the energy transition that considers (1) both the policymaking and the policy implementation stage as well as (2) contribution opportunities for different types of actors (corporate actors vs. the public). Contrasting the concept of persistent national regulatory styles with the concept of a shift towards new modes of governance and/or participation, I examine societal involvement in national renewable energy policy following the formulation of the European 20-20-20 targets in Spring of 2007. My main research question is whether the condition of high reform pressure lead to a change in sector-specific regulatory traditions. R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.1461]
74.1334 BROACHE, M. P. ; HOLMES, Carolyn E. ; ZAKS, Sherry —
In the context of a deeply polarized electorate, venturing into analysis of current events in the Political Science classroom can be fraught, especially regarding the quality of democracy. We argue that we have a responsibility to give students the tools to engage with the current moment of democratic tension, including questions of the quality and sustainability of democracy in ways that link with current events. The 2020-2021 academic year threw the urgency of this task into sharp relief. In this paper, we suggest a series of classroom interventions — in information literacy, conceptualization, and losers’ consent — which can help students leverage social science research skills to analyze current events without falling into undesirably heated partisan discussion. We argue that this suite of activities, which can be deployed throughout a semester, either as structured or on-the-fly interventions, can serve as a toolkit for instructors to engage their students’ pressing questions while maintaining an appropriately analytic lens. [R]
74.1335 BRUNNENGRÄBER, Achim ; SCHWARZ, Lucas —
The complex site selection process for a repository for high-level waste in Germany is still in its initial phase, which by law is anchored at the national level. However, a wide variety of activities can already be observed at the federal level, in regions and municipalities. They all have in common that they are affected by a sub-area and presumably have favourable geological characteristics for final disposal. The activity spectrum ranges from the formation of citizens’ initiatives to the commissioning of scientific reports to examine the suitability of one’s own region to the founding of coordinatory offices to critically accompany the process. Affectedness is thus expressed in very diverse ways, but is usually strongly limited to the political scale. We argue that affectedness must be defined more broadly and develop a perspective that encompasses political, spatial, social and temporal scales. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.1461]
74.1336 BUSCH, Henner ; RADTKE, Jörg ; ISLAR, Mine —
Apart from technological leadership, Denmark has also been the home to many community-based renewable energy initiatives. Citizen involvement in local energy projects has been key to increasing and maintaining acceptance to wind, solar and biomass. Three Danish islands (Bornholm, Samsø and Ærø) have been particularly active in promoting renewables. All three have claimed the title “energy island” and two of them have established specific institutions to promote further RE projects. In this article, we investigate community energy projects on two of the islands (Samsø and Ærø) through an Energy Democracy lens. The purpose of this investigation is to understand how the development on these islands relate to the concept of Energy Democracy: we outline how democratic processes and institutions shape the development of the local infrastructure and how this development, in turn, shaped local democracy. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.1461]
74.1337 CAFFERATA, Fernando G. ; GINGERICH, Daniel W. ; SCARTASCINI, Carlos —
Punitive anti-crime policies in the Americas have contributed to steadily increasing rates of incarceration. Harsh penalties are often demanded by citizens, making them attractive to politicians. Yet the contextual determinants of participation in crime are rarely understood by the public. In this article, we employ a survey experiment conducted in Chile in order to examine how the provision of information about the prison population shapes tastes for punitive anti-crime policies. Respondents in the treatment group received information about the low educational attainment of prisoners. This information led to substantial changes in policy preferences. Tasked with allocating resources to anti-crime policies using a fixed budget, treated respondents assigned between 20% and 50% more to socially oriented anti-crime policies (relative to punitive policies) than respondents in the control group, and they reduced their support for “iron fist” policing. [R, abr.]
74.1338 CAMBA, Alvin ; EPSTEIN, Rachel A. —
We argue that autocrats pursue a two-step strategy of autocratic hedging to ward off international pressure, diminish the power of domestic rivals, and consolidate their positions. First, autocrats who successfully "hedge" against critics do this by seeking rebalancers, such as firms or foreign leaders, who can redirect capital towards the autocrat’s economy and break apart coalitional challengers. Second, autocrats use inducements, ambiguity, and mass mobilization to manipulate international conditions in their favor to avoid isolation and maintain legitimacy. Drawing on interviews in the field and secondary research, we illustrate our concept of autocratic hedging using the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán (2010-). We develop an interactive framework that shows how autocratic hedging has allowed some rulers to place international capital in the service of the autocrat’s power consolidation. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.58]
74.1339 CAMPOS MASCHETTE, Lenon —
This article re-evaluates Margaret Thatcher’s concept of citizenship and analyse its evolution during her government (1979-1990). It argues that her ideas concerning individuals and their relationship with the state and civil society were a crucial element of her belief system since at least the 1970s. Despite their importance, however, most analyses of Thatcherism have relegated these ideas to a marginal place. A rigorous analysis of speeches, interviews, memoirs and documents shows that Thatcher had reconceptualized the idea of citizenship long before her home secretary Douglas Hurd attempted to rationalize and re-package her ideas for public consumption. However, by the end of the 1980s, when moderate Conservatives such as Hurd turned their attention to this question, it was widely perceived that the Conservative Party required a more humane and coherent concept of citizenship. [R, abr.]
74.1340 CEDERMAN, Lars-Erik, et al. —
Charles Tilly’s classical claim that “war made states” in early modern Europe remains controversial. The “bellicist” paradigm has attracted theoretical criticism both within and beyond its original domain of applicability. While several recent studies have analyzed the internal aspects of Tilly’s theory, there have been very few systematic attempts to assess its logic with regard to the territorial expansion of states. In this paper, we test this key aspect of bellicist theory directly by aligning historical data on European state borders with conflict data, focusing on the period from 1490 through 1790. Proceeding at the systemic, state, and dyadic levels, our analysis confirms that warfare did in fact play a crucial role in the territorial expansion of European states before (and beyond) the French Revolution. [R]
74.1341 CHANG, Arturo —
This article turns to postcolonial Mexico to analyze the importance of Indigenous political thought for the transformation of radical republicanism during the Age of Revolutions. I argue that Mexican insurgents deployed Indigenous genealogies to instantiate what I call “restorative revolution,” a form of revolutionary thinking that prioritized memorialization over absolute foundation. Mexico’s restorative project began with calls for the return of the Anáhuac Empire, an Indigenous genealogy that memorialized histories of popular self-rule to legitimize postcolonial demands. I suggest that the Anáhuac movement transformed the principles of radical republican thought by mobilizing around religious, plebeian, and hemispheric identities. Each of these characteristics problematizes dominant interpretations of republicanism as a secular, elite, and national enterprise. [R, abr.]
74.1342 CHANG Duofen ; MENG Changsheng —
Collaborative governance is a promising pattern for grassland governance because the failure of single-subject governance has gradually increased in recent years. To conduct better collaborative governance, it is necessary to specify the roles of the factors that influence grassland collaborative governance. However, there are still few studies that focus on the influencing mechanisms for grassland collaborative governance. To systematically explore the influencing mechanisms, a case study was conducted in 4 banners and counties of Inner Mongolia based on questionnaire surveys and the structural equation model (SEM). The results show that the following three factors all have a positive influence on the collaboration degree (CD): the participation degree of collaborative participants (PDCP), the effectiveness of collaborative leadership (ECL) and the trust degree (TD), and their effects vary. Additionally, TD has a positive mediation effect on the influential paths of PDCP to CD and ECL to CD. Moreover, multigroup analysis shows that both gender and income have significant moderating effects. [R, abr.]
74.1343 CHAO Brian C. ; CHO Hyun-Binn —
How do states signal resolve and conduct coercive diplomacy differently on land and at sea? This question has important implications for security in the Asia-Pacific, which is predominantly a maritime region. While the field of IR has been criticized for exhibiting a Cold War and European bias, this article is based on the observation that the field may suffer from continentalism: a reliance on land-based issues and ideas. We thus examine the potential for incorporating the maritime domain more explicitly into IR to better address the challenges to security in the Asia-Pacific. Specifically, we consider how signaling restraint, costly signals of resolve, and engaging in limited conflicts to conduct violent coercive diplomacy differ on land and at sea. Our findings suggest that addressing the challenges to security in the Asia-Pacific can benefit from a deeper understanding of signaling, coercive diplomacy, and international relations in the maritime domain. [R]
74.1344 CHARALAMBOUS, Giorgos ; CONTI, Nicolo’ ; PEDRAZZANI, Andrea —
Did the crisis period influence party issue salience on the two main dimensions of conflict — economic and cultural — in Europe? How did this happen in terms of potential differences between Southern European countries, the most exposed to economic depression and austerity, and the rest of Europe? And what can we learn about all this when we look at the parties themselves and consider party-level determinants of issue salience? In answering these questions, this study investigates continuity and change in party issue salience over time, comparing Southern Europe with the rest of Europe between 2000 and 2018. Using manifesto data, we test hypotheses on the relevance of the economic crisis for issue salience in party competition and the intermediary role of party characteristics in one of the most turbulent areas of recent times. [R, abr.]
74.1345 CHEESEMAN, Nic ; PEIFFER, Caryn —
Anticorruption awareness raising efforts are designed to encourage citizens to resist and report corruption but have been found to either not work or have unwanted effects — including increasing bribe payment. This article represents the first test of whether these efforts also undermine critical aspects of a society’s social contract, namely, willingness to pay tax. Using a household level survey experiment in Lagos, Nigeria, we assess whether exposure to five messages about (anti)corruption influence citizens’ belief that they have a duty to pay taxes, or “tax morale”. Though they were different in tone and content, four of the five messages undermined tax morale. We argue that this is likely because anti-corruption messages raise awareness of corruption risks, and hence concerns that taxes will be wasted. [R, abr.]
74.1346 CHO,Sungmin —
This study revisits the question of whether China’s economic development has brought democratic changes within the country or not. While the modernization theory suggests that economic development should lead to democratization, scholars claim that China has not made democratic progress despite its economic growth. By comparing these two competing perspectives and examining the evidence behind each assessment, I argue that there has been a certain degree of democratic progress in China, in terms of increasing social aspirations for a more open and free society among the Chinese people. I explain why and how scholars reach different conclusions about democratic progress in China, and emphasize the importance of understanding discrepancies between (1) the lack of change in the state’s system, (2) oscillation between liberal and illiberal policies, and (3) progressive changes in society. [R, abr.]
74.1347 CHUNG, C. K. Martin —
This article explores the relationship between the (in)effectiveness of consociationalism and the culture of co-remembrance in Northern Ireland during and between the first and second Executives. It seeks to answer to what extent successes or failures in forming and running a working Executive affected civil society attempts to foster curative remembering between deeply divided communities. Focussing on the ‘memory-power nexus’, the article analyses grassroots initiatives in ‘remembrance work’, the effects the first and second Executives and the interregnum had on them, and their attempts to shape policy in return. Conventional wisdom holds that favourable political conditions are the preconditions for the success of social ‘reconciliation projects’. This study critically reviews this commonly held belief by examining (counter) evidence on the ground, and finds that ‘memory-sharing’ actually and ironically suffered from the perceived success of power-sharing. [R]
74.1348 CLIFT, Ben —
This article places the Office for Budget Responsibility’s commentary on the March 2023 UK Budget in political context. It explores how increased independent expert input has transformed the UK economic policy regime, focussing on the complex relationship between rules-based economic governance, independent oversight and fiscal discipline. The technocratic veneer that enshrines the UK fiscal watchdog obscures the inevitable politics of rules-based fiscal governance. The recent budget revealed OBR scepticism about how far budget measures can address the UK economy’s long-term structural weaknesses. This underlined the key role for judgment inherent within technocratic fiscal oversight. [R]
74.1349 COPELAND, Paul —
This article interrogates the impact of EU employment policy on the UK both during and after EU Membership. To do so, it adopts insights from both historical institutionalism and discursive institutionalism. The argument made is that integration in the area of employment policy resulted in a process of ‘layering’ whereby EU policy ultimately tamed some of the more liberal elements of the UK’s employment model. Such layering, however, failed to generate a more fundamental change within the UK’s path dependency owing to the emergence of a powerful discourse within British politics. This discourse portrayed EU legislation as a threat to the UK’s ability to generate growth and jobs. As an ‘independent’ country, however, overtime UK employment policy is likely to experience policy drift from the EU, albeit the extent of such remains unclear. [R]
74.1350 CORBETT, Anne ; HANTRAIS, Linda —
This article on post-Brexit policies for higher education and research suggests that these public policy domains are characterised by their intellectual independence from the state or market. The authors see a legacy of the UK’s historical relationship with the EU in its treatment of the two epistemically linked domains, reflecting institutional differences. UK governments have generally been wary of EU involvement in higher education and supportive of research collaboration. Post-Brexit evidence suggests that the UK has been purposively ‘de-Europeanising’ higher education for the supposed gains of marketised international policy. But the UK is also a victim of its overarching Brexit policy, which risked failing to secure associate status for the UK in the EU’s world famous Horizon Europe science programme. The article explores the question of whether Brexit caused divergence in these sectors or whether it provided the opportunity for the UK government to solidify an already semi-autonomous policy trajectory. [R]
74.1351 CORREDOR JIMENEZ, Juliane —
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the extraordinary importance of pandemic preparedness for public policy. The article argues that the cases of entrepreneurial and exemplary implementation of the intersectoral and bottom-up One Health policy in Africa can be a chance for the Global North to enhance pandemic preparedness under a changing climate. Using document analysis and participatory observation, the article draws on two case studies illustrating the multisectoral and bottom-up approaches, respectively. The cases demonstrate how the bottom-up community inclusiveness developed during the Ebola outbreak enhanced pandemic preparedness, and how community resilience was improved through sustainable entrepreneurs implementing One Health policies. The article draws important policy lessons for more resilient health systems in the Global North. [R]
74.1352 COYLE, Diane ; MUHTAR, Adam —
Lack of consistency has long been noted as a weakness in government policy-making, but it has previously been difficult to assess the extent of the absence of strategic co-ordination. This paper investigates this shortcoming by applying computational linguistics and network tools to provide some evidence on the lack of policy co-ordination in the UK. We use two key economic strategy documents produced during the Johnson administration — the 2021 Plan for Growth and the 2021 UK Innovation Strategy — to analyse all subsequent policy documents produced by the same administration. The extent of linguistic discontinuity provides some indication of the extent of the absence of policy co-ordination in that administration’s economic policies, reinforced by analysis showing a similar lack of ‘joining up’ in government departmental networks. [R]
74.1353 DAR, Rouf Ahmad —
This article studies the process of constitution-making in Jammu and Kashmir as a hegemonic process dominated by, and an ideological reflection of, the dominant political party of Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference led by the popular leader Sheikh Abdullah. The Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir emerged as an outcome of their ideas. Though the process itself was punctuated by the exclusionary violence against diverse communities present in the state at that time, very little attention has been paid to the idea of a constitution as an exclusivist text that embeds ‘foundational violence’ within it, and that eliminates dissenting groups and prevents the inclusion of plural conceptions of politics by actualizing a monopolistic discourse in favour of the dominant party. This article locates the violence that went into constitution-making and further employs hermeneutical interpretation of the Constituent Assembly Debates of Jammu and Kashmir to locate the differing viewpoints that existed in the State Constituent Assembly. It also takes the surrounding political and ideological context into account. In doing so, it constructs an alternative and ‘unofficial’ version of the constitution-making process, which helps challenge the dominant historical narrative that the constitution-making in Jammu and Kashmir was a successful experiment in Indian federal democracy. [R]
74.1354 DAYAN, Mark —
EU laws have exerted a powerful influence on research, manufacturing, supply, sale and procurement of the products on which national health systems rely. Pre-Brexit, the UK was closely involved in the policy and operation of regulations affecting these goods. Since Brexit, ideological polarisation and the political salience of health during a global pandemic have driven a rhetoric of competitive divergence. However, active UK policy divergence to date is limited. It is unsettled whether the UK, as a small market in this global industry, genuinely seeks a higher risk, more industryfriendly regulatory paradigm. With regulatory and policy capacity also under strain, important decisions have been delayed. The position of Northern Ireland remains highly precarious, with negotiations ongoing on how to handle its unique partial status within the single market. The UK’s attempt to remain within the EU’s research funding programme has consequently been pushed into involuntary divergence. [R]
74.1355 DE LA PAZ, Alexander —
From late August to early December 1990, Iraq held hundreds of Western and Japanese civilians at strategic sites as “human shields” against the Gulf War coalition. While there is a consensus that these foreign nationals would have influenced the coalition’s offensive had they not been released before the onset of hostilities, their impact remains poorly understood. This note draws on newly available archival records, among other sources, to throw new light on this old question. The record shows that leaders were reconciled with the prospect of hostage casualties and the expected political fallout. Military necessity and limited intelligence about the hostages’ whereabouts precluded avoiding every shielded target. At the same time, public opinion was divided on the hostage problem, especially in the US. [R, abr.]
74.1356 DIAMOND, Patrick —
This article analyses the existing and potential effects of EU withdrawal on the UK machinery of government (MoG) in an ‘age of fiasco’. Brexit has been a system-wide shock that has the potential to fundamentally alter British domestic policy and politics. Above all, departing from the European Union (EU) represents an unprecedented ‘stress test’ for the government machinery. Brexit has been the greatest challenge confronting the MoG since the Second World War. Yet its impact on the UK state’s structures and processes has thus far been modest. The pattern of change indicates gradual adaptation and modification of institutions rather than transformation of the governing machinery through De-Europeanisation and dismantling. That said, EU withdrawal is aggravating pathologies in the Westminster Model (WM) that contribute towards the erosion of UK policymaking. This article contends that the capacity of UK government was weakening before Brexit, while withdrawal from Europe imposes additional burdens. The governing approach of incrementalism and ‘muddling through’ has come under severe strain. [R]
74.1357 DIAMOND, Patrick ; RICHARDSON, Jeremy —
The UK’s decision to leave the EU in 2016 unquestionably represents a critical juncture in British politics. Yet the intervening years in which the terms of Britain’s withdrawal have been painstakingly negotiated by the UK political elite appear less of a watershed, even if there have been significant alterations in particular fields of public policy. Path dependencies have reasserted themselves derailing the process of ‘getting Brexit done’, while the constraints and unintended consequences confronting policymakers in the polity and politics have become increasingly apparent, not least on the issue of how far in practice to pursue regulatory divergence from the EU. The framing of Brexit as a ‘critical juncture’ has fuelled unrealistic expectations while contributing towards growing disillusionment among citizens. Amidst the ensuing chaos, Brexit appears more than ever to be an omnishambles of epic proportions. [R]
74.1358 DONAGHY, Maureen M. ; PALLER, Jeffrey W. —
Rapid population growth in the Global South places extreme pressure on cities, making it very difficult for governments to provide the necessary housing to city dwellers. The short-term needs and demands of residents often contradict or challenge long-term central urban plans and sustainable solutions. Important but overlooked actors in the politics of sustainable urban development are community organisations that demand housing and rights to the city. Yet these organisations do not adopt the same strategies everywhere. This article examines the pathways of engagement adopted by organisations across different urban contexts and how they affect governance. These organisations contribute to sustainability politics by engaging local and national governments, allying with political parties and politicians, and informing and mobilising local populations. Drawing from a most different case design that compares São Paulo, Brazil with Accra, Ghana, we find that the ideology of the organisation, its relationship to the state and to society, and the credibility of multi-level institutions shape the success or failure of sustainable urban governance and development. We conclude that urban residents often seek change through pathways of engagement that can be generalised across diverse social contexts, but the underlying politics within civil society can undermine a sustainable urban future. [R] [See Abstr. 74.149]
74.1359 DUDLEY, Geoffrey ; GAMBLE, Andrew —
The Westminster Model (WM) remains dominant in UK post-Brexit policymaking, with few signs that the UK Government is willing to cede power to the devolved administrations and external interests. Despite the plebiscitary vote for Brexit in the 2016 Referendum, the implementation of that change has been dependent on the vagaries of the WM, and a succession of internal crises within the governing Conservative Party. The case studies in the special issue illustrate how the consequent problems of complexity and capacity are compounded by the dilemma of tracking EU legislation while attempting to demonstrate that the UK has ‘taken back control’ and is delivering a ‘Global Britain’ strategy. This results in UK Brexit policy-making progressing in an ad hoc and unpredictable manner. The evidence from the case studies suggests that the UK will not become a rule taker but will increasingly seek to preserve or reclaim as much as possible of the benefits that it enjoyed as a full member state. This will not remove all the costs associated with Brexit, but over time it might significantly reduce them. [R, abr.]
74.1360 ELOIRE, Fabien —
This article focuses on a pivotal period in the trajectory of the French economy, during which the system of financing the economy shifted from a government-based system to a market-based system. To this end, it analyzes a set of monetary and financial reforms developed and implemented between 1984 and 1986. It examines a series of deregulation measures taken by the Socialist government that laid the foundations for the financialization of the economy in the 1990s. It also highlights France’s unique approach to reform, which focused on a controlled and organized opening of capital markets. It shows how these reforms gradually transformed the role of the state in the economy by introducing liberal mechanisms based on competition and negotiability, contributing to a form of depoliticization of decision-making. [R, abr.]
74.1361 FARSTAD, Fay M., et al. —
There is little knowledge of how policymakers manage governance networks (“metagovern”) within climate policy and especially at non-executive levels of public management. One strategy to metagovern is through using intermediary actors such as funding bodies. However, as novel actors within climate governance, such “climate intermediaries” are under-researched. We address these gaps by exploring the metagovernance through an intermediary actor, namely the Norwegian “Klimasats” Fund. We find that the logic of funding bodies lends itself to “carrots” as opposed to “sticks”, weakening the potential for transformation. Funding bodies can also increase existing differences in climate action between larger and smaller local authorities. However, funding bodies have a beneficial bidirectional functionality, incentivising local innovation whilst feeding lessons both up to and across government. Funding bodies also have the power to make local actors into intermediaries in their own right and can influence policy discourses. Thus, in assessing metagovernance at the non-executive level and using intermediary actors such as funding bodies, we reveal significant challenges, but also surprising opportunities, for the low-carbon transition. [R]
74.1362 FERREE, Karen E., et al. —
A large literature documents Covid-19’s health and economic effects. We focus instead on its political impact and its potential to exacerbate identity divisions, in particular. Psychologists argue that contagious disease increases threat perceptions and provokes policing of group boundaries. We explore how insider-outsider status and symptoms of illness shape perceptions of infection, reported willingness to help, and desire to restrict free movement of an ailing neighbor using a phone-based survey experiment administered three times in two neighboring African countries during different stages of the pandemic. We study identities that are salient in Malawi and Zambia but have not induced significant prior violence, making our study a relatively hard test of disease threat theories. [R, abr.]
74.1363 FLEMMER, Riccarda —
Prior consultation (PC) has been an internationally enshrined norm for indigenous peoples’ rights since the 1980s. Indigenous peoples have called for PC for decades, but when governments finally begin implementation, a paradox results: previous advocates increasingly turn away from consultation processes. I argue that only with the perspective that norms are and should be contested “on the ground,” we are able to understand this contradiction. Therefore, the article presents a new conceptual and methodological interpretive framework for studying indigenous grassroots contestation. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in the Peruvian Amazon (2013–2016), I hone in on three layers of contestation — explicit contestation, attitudes and perceptions, and political implications Scaling up these insights, the structure of PC accommodates two irreconcilable understandings: PC is either interpreted as an end in itself or as a means of indigenous self-determination. [R, abr.]
74.1364 FOKS, Freddy —
The decades between 1948 and 1980 are often remembered as a time of mass immigration, yet almost 2 million more people left Britain than arrived in those years. Mass emigration has been an enduring part of Britain’s modern history and this article explores its effects on British politics. The two world wars, the turn to tariffs, joining the EEC and leaving the EU: at these critical junctures, Britain’s overseas diaspora was mobilised to reshape domestic politics and to transform the UK’s global political economy. Charting the rise, fall and afterlife of Britain’s ‘emigration state’ can contribute to our understanding of these events and help researchers analyse the effects of racism and empire on modern British politics. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1365 FONTANA, Giuditta ; MASIERO, Ilaria —
We explore whether including cultural reforms in an intra-state peace accord facilitates its success. We distinguish between accommodationist and integrationist cultural provisions and employ a mixed research method combining negative binomial regression on a data set of all intra-state political agreements concluded between 1989 and 2017, and an in-depth analysis of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement for Northern Ireland. We recognize the important reassuring effect of accommodationist cultural reforms in separatist conflicts. However, we also find that they have an important and hitherto overlooked reputational effect across all conflict types. By enhancing the reputation of negotiating leaders, accommodationist cultural provisions contribute to ending violence by preventing leadership challenges, rebel fragmentation and remobilization across all civil conflicts. By the same logic, and despite the overwhelming emphasis of peace agreements on integrationist cultural initiatives, integrationist cultural reforms problematize leaders’ ability to commit to pacts and to ensure compliance among their rank and file. [R]
74.1366 FRANCO-VIVANCO, Edgar ; MARTINEZ-ALVAREZ, Cesar B. ; FLORES MARTÍNEZ, Ivan —
Around the world, non-state armed actors have been linked to the illegal extraction of energy resources. This research note explores the case of Mexico. Anecdotal evidence suggests that criminal groups have been gaining control of energy infrastructure across the country. At the same time, oil tapping has been directly associated with criminal violence. Yet, there has not been a systematic effort to causally identify the relationship between illegal extraction and criminal violence. In this research note, we use the exogenous variation in international oil prices — as a measure of potential profits — to assess the effect of access to energy infrastructure on criminal-related violence. Our results show that increases in oil prices are associated with higher levels of homicide rates in municipalities with pipelines and in neighboring municipalities. Specifically, a standard price increase during this period is associated with approximately 20% more homicides per year in municipalities with gasoline pipelines. A locality-level analysis suggests a non-linear distance effect. Finally, we also explore criminal fragmentation as the mechanism connecting access to resources and violence. We find that access to pipelines is associated with higher presence of organized crime groups, but not necessarily with more fragmentation. [R]
74.1367 FUCHS, Gerhard ; FETTKE, Ulrike —
In the process of sustainability and especially electricity transition, the local and regional levels gain a new importance. Both social movements as well as governments from different levels (state, federal) are mobilizing and/or addressing local actors. The way this has been done and the capacities for local actors to have a say in the way transition processes do unfold, however, has changed significantly over the last decades in Germany. The paper will use the example of wind energy projects to analyze how multilevel governance arrangements have changed over time. The main thesis will be that the available repertoires of activities for local actors have become increasingly limited due to increasing policy management activities by state and federal governments. Especially the creation of artificial markets and auctioning devices have severely limited the scope of action for local actors. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.1461]
74.1368 FUGLSANG, Niels —
Scholars have attributed the resilience of the neoliberal policy paradigm to external pressure on governments by giant corporations and to features of the neoliberal idea itself. This article proposes a different explanation based on the political influence of the economic models that governments use for policy planning. I develop a theoretical perspective to capture how economic models, rather than being mere analytical tools, are policy tools with an overt objective function and a covert political function. To illustrate the value of the theory, I use a qualitative case-study approach to analyse how politicians in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis used economic models before and during the 2011–2015 Social Democratic Thorning-Schmidt government in Denmark. I show how the Danish Finance Ministry’s model worked as a weapon, a game board and a shield to discredit certain policies while promoting other policies, and in the process contributing to neoliberal resilience. [R]
74.1369 GALLAGHER, Niamh —
The history of Northern Ireland poses two particular challenges for the political historian. First, histories of the region are inextricably bound up with contemporary political positions: historical time becomes distorted as histories are refracted through the lens of modern political controversies. Second, the importance of historical ‘memory’ to contemporary politics leaves little room for doubt, uncertainty or academic expertise. The past is assumed to be known; what place is there for academic historians when politicians and many members of the public are so invested in their own readings of the past? This article explores these challenges through two case studies in which the author was involved: the Historical Advisory Panel established by the UK government for the centenary of Northern Ireland; and subsequent debates around the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. It illustrates the difficult relationship between academic, public and politicised histories, and considers the lessons for historians whose expertise places them at the interface of those different ‘pasts’. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1370 GANGULY, Šumit —
This essay argues that a number of the policies that the current, ruling Bharatiya Janata Party government in India is pursuing threaten to rend the very fabric of India’s democracy. Its policies toward press freedoms, civil liberties, and judicial independence are all profoundly inimical to the functioning of a democratic state. Unless these policies are checked or reversed the future of India’s democracy may well be imperiled. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1483]
74.1371 GARCIA, Maria J. —
Trade policy and negotiations have lain at the heart of the Brexit process. Initial UK trade policy has been characterised by: (1) the need to limit the impact of changes in trading relations (mainly with the EU) to minimise challenges for businesses and the possibility of economic losses; (2) a strong ideological commitment to free trade, and related to that; (3) symbolic and ‘placebo’ actions designed to show that the UK can enact an independent trade policy. Negotiation of free trade agreements (FTAs), thus, became a priority of trade policy. This article explores how approaches to FTAs have evolved, focusing specifically on post-Brexit FTAs with Australasia. Overall, the desire to complete speedy agreements has at times trumped business and societal interests, and precluded the development of a coherent long-term UK FTA vision, revealing the symbolic motivation of being seen as ‘delivering Brexit’ behind the initial years of post-Brexit trade policy. [R]
74.1372 GARCÍA-MONTOYA, Laura ; MANZI, Pilar —
The shared crisis brought on by COVID-19 offers an opportunity to study how economic elites attempt to shape policy responses. In this article, we inquire about the conditions under which economic elites shaped containment and business support measures in Latin America. We argue that wealthier and better-organised elites are more likely to shape policies because they have increased access to policymakers. To test this, we combine regression analysis with three case studies: Chile, Mexico, and Peru. Our quantitative findings align with our expectations regarding containment measures and present mixed results for pro-business policies. Case studies illustrate how elites attempted to influence policy, highlighting the centrality of access to the Executive and the importance of distinguishing between institutionalised or personalised access. The degree to which policy responses aligned with elite preferences varied according to the nature of the ties: ranging from the most alignment in Chile to the least in Peru. [R]
74.1373 GIBILISCO, Michael —
Mowing the grass is a cyclical pattern in counterterrorism campaigns where governments attack to destroy terrorist capacity, thereby achieving a period of quiet as groups recover. If groups expect their capacity to be destroyed, why build their capabilities in the first place? I analyze an infinite-horizon dynamic game where a group endogenously builds capacity in the face of potential attacks and capacity is an evolving, persistent variable. The model highlights that terrorist groups and governments have incentives to create strategic uncertainty and thus explains attack cycles without punishment strategies, revenge preferences or imperfect/incomplete information. I calibrate the model to time-series data in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict describing rockets fired from Gaza. [R, abr.]
74.1374 GOLDSMITH, Rebecca —
This article considers how modern British political history has changed since the ‘new political history’ of the 1990s. It focusses on the ‘vernacular’ histories which have emerged in the last decade or so. The vernacular ‘turn’ is frequently framed by its proponents in opposition to the new political history, with its focus on the rhetoric of politicians and subsequent tendency to reproduce the perspectives of political elites. This article, however, identifies continuities between these approaches, noting their shared interest in advancing a more complex understanding of the relationship between politics and people in the past. It argues that the real challenge posed by the vernacular lies in the necessary reckoning with the ‘apartness’ of politics from the perspective of ordinary people. Yet here too, this piece suggests, the vernacular turn can be seen as the latest stage in a continual rethinking of the relationship between political, social and cultural history. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1375 GONZÁLEZ BERTOMEU, Juan F. —
This article addresses the bastardization of constitutional law in Argentina and the corrosive power of legacies of authoritarianism. It offers a genealogy of the use by Argentina’s Supreme Court of self-restraint canons from the time when they were borrowed from the US Supreme Court in the late nineteenth century. Partly resulting from the country’s experiences with military rule, the court transformed or expanded these canons, which entailed a gradual depreciation of statutes as the (uneasy) cornerstone of constitutionalism. Based on a fresh dataset and employing narrative and network analysis, the article focuses on a slogan the court has invoked since the 1960s: invalidating a rule is a matter of extreme institutional gravity and hence a strategy of last resort. Under the 1976-83 dictatorship, the court applied the slogan to various rules, including those passed by the military. It thus invoked familiar canons outside its scope conditions, conveying an illusion of constitutional regularity by masking the abnormal in acceptable garb and contributing to the regime’s legitimation. While the democratic court abandoned the most blatant expressions of authoritarianism, connections persisted, manifesting in the frequent citations to the dictatorship court’s use of the slogan and its extension to any rule. Authoritarian legacies die hard. [R]
74.1376 GRAVEY, Viviane ; JORDAN, Andrew J. —
This article develops and tests a refined theoretical account of de-Europeanisation to assess how well it explains the increasing differentiation of UK environmental policy after 2016. Drawing on an original analysis of relevant policy documents, parliamentary processes and legal reforms, it reveals how policy, politics and polity have changed more significantly than was originally foreseen. It departs from the existing literature by revealing that the devolution settlements of the late 1990s opened up the possibility of not one, but multiple pathways of change ranging from de-Europeanization, through to dis- and active re-engagement. It describes how UK policy — once outside the framework of EU processes and institutions — is being re-shaped via a multi-level negotiation between actors in Brussels, London and the devolved administrations. It concludes that despite conflicting policy objectives across the UK, the predominant pattern of change is nevertheless one of gradual disengagement from the EU environmental rule-book. [R]
74.1377 GREER, Alan ; GRANT, Wyn —
Throughout British membership of the EU, agricultural policy was largely determined by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This was viewed by the UK as a dysfunctional policy and while periodic reforms meant that the EU moved slowly in the direction advocated by the UK, many of the main policy elements remained in place. The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have always enjoyed a measure of policy freedom in agriculture and have diverged from England in some areas. This article explores the extent of de-Europeanisation in the agricultural sectors in the UK and the patterns of divergence between them, focusing primarily on the development of policies for agricultural support that will replace those in place under the CAP. Overall, there has been substantial divergence in policy, but also areas of continuity, which means that processes of de-Europeanisation in the UK agricultural sectors has been uneven. [R]
74.1378 GRYNAVISKI, Eric ; STEINSSON, Sverrir —
Prominent theories of state formation hold that states formed because of warfare and competition on the one hand, or the diffusion of organizational templates and practices through learning and emulation on the other. We propose that the two strands of theory can be linked to more accurately account for mechanisms of state formation. War, we argue, is an important source of social diffusion. War establishes contacts between political elites across borders, generates migratory flows, and establishes new economic networks. We examine the validity of the theory through a comparative case study of Nordic political units from the dawn of the Viking Age to the end of the High Middle Ages (CE 800-1300), finding that raids, settlements, and conquests by Norwegian and Danish rulers in England, Europe’s most advanced kingdom, set in motion state formation processes in Norway and Denmark. In these cases, the winners emulated the losers. [R]
74.1379 HA, Thao-Nguyen ; HAGSTRÖM, Linus —
What explains Japan’s security policy change in recent decades? Heeding the ‘emotional turn’ in IR, this article applies a resentment-based framework, which defines resentment as a long-lasting form of anger and the product of status dissatisfaction. Leveraging interviews with 18 conservative Japanese lawmakers and senior officials, the article discusses the role, function, and prevalence of resentment in the remaking of Japan’s security policy, premised on constitutional revision. The analysis reveals that conservative elites are acutely status-conscious; and that those who blame a perceived inferior status on Japan’s alleged pacifism are more likely to see revision of Article 9 as an end in itself. For a subset of conservatives, however, the goal is rather to stretch the Constitution to enhance Japan’s means of deterrence vis-à-vis objects of fear or in solidarity with allies. Overall, the article demonstrates that resentment provides a fruitful lens for analyzing status dissatisfaction in international politics. [R]
74.1380 HAZLETT, Chad ; PARENTE, Francesca —
Attention to the credibility of causal claims has increased tremendously in recent years. When relying on observational data, debate often centers on whether investigators have ruled out any bias due to confounding. We argue that sensitivity analyses would improve research practice by showing how results would change under plausible degrees of confounding, or equivalently, by revealing what one must argue about the strength of confounding to sustain a research conclusion. This would improve scrutiny of studies in which nonzero bias is expected and of those in which authors argue for zero bias but results may be fragile to confounding too weak to be ruled out. We illustrate this using off-the-shelf sensitivity tools to examine two potential influences on support for the FARC peace agreement in Colombia. [R, abr.]
74.1381 HEATHERSHAW, John ; MAYNE, Tom —
Unexplained Wealth Orders, introduced in the UK in 2017, were designed to tackle the problem of transnational kleptocracy. However, our research on real estate purchases in the UK by elites from post-Soviet kleptocracies demonstrates that incumbent elites are invulnerable to attempts to question the legality of their wealth while exiles from these states often lose their property. From our original dataset of properties, we take a single exemplary case: one of incumbents Dariga Nazarbayeva and Nurali Aliyev, the daughter and grandson of Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev who were subject to one of the few UWOs issued and thereby had their properties frozen. In a close analysis of the legal documents from this case, this paper analyses how the properties were purchased and how the sources of wealth were subsequently explained as legitimate. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.58]
74.1382 HENN, Soeren J. —
How does the central state affect public goods provision by local actors? I study the effect of state capacity on local governance in sub-Saharan Africa, which I argue depends on whether traditional authorities are integrated in the country’s constitution. I use distance to administrative headquarters as a measure of state capacity and estimate a regression discontinuity design around administrative boundaries. If traditional authorities are not integrated, then the state and traditional authorities compete with each other, working as substitutes. That is, a stronger state undermines the power of traditional authorities. If traditional authorities are integrated, then the two work as complements. A stronger state then increases the power of traditional authorities. I show that these relationships are crucial to understanding the influence of state capacity on local economic development. [R]
74.1383 HIGASHIJIMA, Masaaki ; KERR, Nicholas —
Scholars have argued that multiparty elections have a profound and immediate influence on mass evaluations of political support. However, what is less clear is whether the effects of elections are short lived or long lasting. Investigating dynamic effects of elections on mass perceptions of political regimes has profound implications on popular foundations of democratic consolidation in an era of democratic backsliding. This article examines electoral cycles in citizens’ satisfaction with democracy (SWD) — an important dimension of political support — in multiparty regimes. First, we argue that proximity to elections enhances SWD because campaigns and elections include several processes that reduce the costs and increase the benefits of citizen engagement with the political system. This results in a bell-shaped relationship between citizens’ proximity to elections and SWD. Second, we contend that electoral cycles in SWD should vary by the quality of elections and citizens’ winner/loser status. We examine these hypotheses using Afrobarometer data in 34 multiparty regimes between 1999 and 2015 finding compelling support. SWD is higher among respondents surveyed closer to elections, while electoral cycles in SWD are more prominent among winners and around low-quality elections. [R]
74.1384 HILLMAN, Ben —
Since Xi Jinping became China’s paramount leader in 2012, his top domestic priority has been the strengthening of the Chinese Communist Party’s power over government, economy, and society. This extends to village life, where a decades-long experiment with direct elections is being unwound by new efforts to establish Party control at the rural grassroots level. This essay draws on first-hand observation and Chinese sources to examine the ongoing CCP strategy for reestablishing party dominance over village affairs. [R]
74.1385 HOBBS, Jenn —
This article examines the soldiering body in relation to the increasing prevalence of genitourinary injuries in military personnel. Feminist scholars have demonstrated that the idealised masculine soldiering body are central to the workings of international politics. The article shows that US militarised masculinity operates through the selective distribution of bodily capacities. The article draws upon critical disability studies, particularly Jasbir Puar’s work on capacity and debility, to argue that treatments for genitourinary injuries revolve around the production of seminal capacity. Queer and trans bodies are debilitated in these arrangements through the denial of heterosexual and cisgender capabilities to them. To unpack this argument the article analyses treatments for genitourinary injuries. The article shows that genitourinary injuries destabilise the gender identity of US service members. Through an exploration of surgical treatments, including penis transplants and reconstructive surgeries, and fertility treatments, the article shows how masculine capacitation is achieved for some US service members through the debilitation of others; in particular, queer and trans bodies, and the bodies of Iraqi and Afghan civilians. [R]
74.1386 HOLLAND, Alisha C. —
Political economy models view property rights as the linchpin to economic development. But strong property rights — defined as rules that provide greater compensation to a larger set of claimants — encourage opportunistic behaviors that undermine infrastructure investments. Strong rights lead to (1) holdout problems among existing property owners, (2) infrastructure trolls who occupy needed land, and (3) scope expansions in which communities demand unrelated local public goods. I draw on original qualitative research around highway projects in Colombia to illustrate how communities leverage their property rights to secure greater compensation and collective goods. A survey experiment supports the microfoundations of the theory: making salient strong property rights increases compensation demands and legal claims. State audit reports reveal that opportunistic behavior occurs on two-thirds of highway projects. These findings bolster a neglected view of strong property rights as a check on stateled economic development projects. [R]
74.1387 HUANG Xian ; ZUO Cai —
Much comparative politics scholarship has examined whether economic inequality affects democratic values or political support in democracies. Nevertheless, they lack a close examination of the political effects of economic inequality and, more importantly, how economic inequality shapes political support in non-democracies. We provide an empirical test of the effect of economic inequality on regime support using the China data from the Asian Barometer Survey between 2002 and 2015. We argue and demonstrate that perceived economic inequality significantly reduces regime support in China. Moreover, using a causal mediation analysis, we find that the detrimental effect of perceived economic inequality on regime support is not driven by demands for redistribution, but rather by the political value orientation. These findings advance our understanding of the connection between economic inequality and political values and the economic base of political legitimacy in non-democracies. [R]
74.1388 HUNING, Thilo R. ; WAHL, Fabian —
Geography provides some states with a higher level of soil quality than others, and in addition has allowed some historical states to appropriate agricultural output at lower costs. To test this empirically, we propose a new measure of appropriability: caloric observability. The idea behind this measure is that geography induces variation between states because their signals about agricultural output differ in precision. Caloric observability is robustly and significantly correlated with proxies of government success on three levels: data on all European states 1300-1700, our new data set on the Holy Roman Empire 1150-1789, and a municipality-level data set of 1545 Duchy of Württemberg. [R]
74.1389 HUYS, David —
This article focusses on ongoing discussions about the place of the Spanish Civil War (1936-39) and the Franco dictatorship (1939-75) in Spain’s democracy. Following the suspension of Judge Baltasar Garzón by the Spanish Supreme Court in 2010, who had indicted General Francisco Franco (1892-1975) and thirty-four accomplices under international law for committing crimes against humanity, a debate arose between leading intellectuals in Spain about the growing international influence on Spain’s war past. This debate revealed that a group of influential left-wing intellectuals attempted to curb the social and political influence of the citizens’ memory movements. The author observes how this happened by applying three strategies: the foreign strategy, the nationalistic-ethical strategy, and the saturation strategy. [R, abr.]
74.1390 INNES, Joanna —
These concluding remarks reflect, in the light of the preceding articles, on two themes that recur throughout the collection. First, how can historians maintain an effective presence in public debate about politics in Britain? Second, how should political historians position themselves within the discipline, at a time when — it is suggested — political history is losing ground among British academic historians? It is argued here that, in each case, they should reflect on what they can most distinctively contribute, either as historians or as political historians; and that they should frame their interventions accordingly. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1391 ISAKHAN, Benjamin —
This article explores the relationship between hybrid regimes and civil society. It examines the extant debate between ‘neo-Tocquevilleans’ and their opponents over whether or not a robust civil society portends democratic transition and consolidation. It demonstrates the limits of these two models by arguing that civil society in hybrid regimes can in fact agitate against the state, advocate for democratic freedoms and achieve significant political reforms even when these do not lead to broader democratization. To demonstrate, this article documents the case of the Iraqi Federation of Oil Unions through 15 years of complex Iraqi politics, from the 2003 US-led intervention and during the incumbency of Prime Minister’s Maliki (2006-2014) and Abadi (2014-2018). By analysing primary materials produced by and about the Iraqi Federation of Oil Unions, it finds that this case holds important lessons for those seeking to understand the complex interface between civil society and the state in hybrid regimes. [R]
74.1392 JAMES, Scott ; QUAGLIA, Lucia —
This paper examines the impact of Brexit on UK financial services policy, explaining recent reforms to the domestic financial regulatory framework and assessing the prospects for future divergence from EU rules. Deploying the lens of de-Europeanisation, we show that the failure to include financial services in the final UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement necessitated major institutional changes. By contrast, there has been very limited change to date with respect to policy, while the government’s ambitions for a ‘Big Bang 2.0’ package of regulatory reforms have been significantly scaled back. Drawing on insights from the political economy of finance, we argue that this process has been shaped by contested adaptational pressures mediated by three key variables: business unity, financial stability, and administrative capacity. The result is an emerging pattern of differentiated de-Europeanisation in financial services, ranging from intentional regulatory divergence to active alignment with EU rules. [R]
74.1393 JEFFERY, David —
Metro mayors heading a combined authority represent the most recent innovation in English devolution. City-region devolution has been a key way in which successive Conservative governments have sought to boost local economic growth against a background of local authority austerity. However, the perspective of voters is often overlooked in these debates. City-region devolution is a top-down innovation, with a focus on city-region economics rather than democratic renewal or engagement, and there is so far very little academic literature on identifying the drivers of public support for mayoral combined authorities. This study draws on survey responses of voters in the Liverpool City Region and explores a number of potential drivers of support for the Liverpool City Region combined authority, including party support, English, British and European identity, left-right and other value positions, and the role of place in driving support. [R, abr.]
74.1394 JEONG, Hu Young ; ULUĞ, Özden Melis ; BAYSU, Gülseli —
Even though the violent conflicts during the Troubles officially ended decades ago, the memories of violence and division between Catholics and Protestants linger in Northern Ireland. We argue that the personal centrality of collective victimhood, which is formed by the memory and perception of past and ongoing victimization, may play an important role in people’s attitudes in postconflict societies. The current study investigated both the antecedents and outcomes of the personal centrality of ingroup victimhood in Northern Ireland and examined the vital role it plays in the aftermath of a violent intergroup conflict among Catholics and Protestants. The results demonstrated that ongoing experiences of victimization such as personal and group-level discrimination and memories of personal and close others’ suffering are strongly related to people’s personal centrality of ingroup victimhood. The centrality of ingroup victimhood, in turn, predicted various strategies for intergroup interaction and policy preferences such as collective action, support for nonviolence, and attitudes toward reunification of Ireland, which were moderated by group membership. The findings provide empirical evidence for the role of the centrality of ingroup victimhood as a link between experiences of victimization and intergroup interactions as well as policy preferences. [R]
74.1395 JOHNSON, Philip L. ; GILLOOLY, Shauna N. —
Why do criminal actors publicly display threatening messages? Studies of organized crime emphasize that criminal actors rely on clandestine networks of influence. Subtle or coded threats are an effective means of extending that influence, but publicizing these threats appears to undermine their chief advantage. We argue that publicized threats broadcast an imagined order, delineating who has a place in society under criminal control, and who does not. To demonstrate this argument, we construct a “grammar of threat” and use this to analyze public threats broadcast by four criminal actors: two groups in Colombia and two in Mexico. The analysis demonstrates that every group projects an order through their threats, but that the order imagined varies by group. Some orders are more clearly ideological; some are more localized or more expansive. [R]
74.1396 KARTALIS, Yani —
Do macro-economic conditions affect legislators’ representative focus? This article examines this novel predictor by analysing an original dataset of parliamentary questions from the Greek parliament. Greece is a very informative case since not only is it one of the countries most severely hit by the Eurozone Crisis but it also offers an institutional setting that provides plenty of incentives to re-election-seeking actors for constituencyfocused representative work. The data utilised covers an extended period of six Greek legislatures and over 12,000 parliamentary current questions asked pre, during and post-crisis between 2006 and 2019. The standalone effect of macro-economic conditions as well as its interaction with known predictors like the legislators’ vulnerability is tested. Findings provide evidence that better national economic performance conditions increase the likelihood that MPs with table current questions about their constituency, although other traditional factors like electoral vulnerability remain important. [R]
74.1397 KASAPOVIĆ, Mak ; KOČAN, Faris —
Twenty-six years after the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitution has remained largely intact, despite a well-established consensus on the necessity of reforming the post-Dayton system. This article looks at the Prud and Butmir Processes, two of the last unsuccessful attempts at comprehensive constitutional reform, with a focus on the political elite from the Republika Srpska. We use securitization theory, combining content and discourse analyses, to understand how the Prud and Butmir Processes, and by extension the overall constitutional reform, were successfully framed as existential threats to the Republika Srpska by the ethnopolitical elite, justifying the continuation of conflict-perpetuating routines. [R]
74.1398 KASSAB, Hanna Samir —
Language is a clear indicator of political change. As China continues to rise and expand its influence in the South China Seas, threatened neighboring states will balance against it. One step in this process is the formulation of persuading language and concepts to accept the threat posed by China. This is demonstrated by the invention and use of the term Indo-Pacific, an area from the eastern part of Africa in the west to the United States in the east. This article traces the genealogy of the term Indo-Pacific as it relates to the securitization of this region given the rise of China. The article will first trace the genealogy of the term Indo-Pacific to then highlight the processes of securitization given changes in the structure of international relations. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1301]
74.1399 KELLY, Conor J. ; TANNAM, Etain —
Brexit has significantly altered the trajectory of UK government policy towards Northern Ireland. The peace process was implicitly built on a presumption of continued joint EU membership by the UK and Ireland. The EU model of interdependence and cooperation was explicitly stated to be an inspiration by its key architect John Hume. However, the history of British–Irish cooperation over Northern Ireland is long and complex and cannot solely be understood through the lens of Europeanisation. Despite this, the aftermath of the 2016 referendum has seen a retreat by the UK government from a bilateral and consensual approach towards Northern Ireland to unilateralism and a ‘muscular’ unionist ideology. This has affected their governance there, hampering their relationship with local parties and undermining the agreed role of the Irish government. The impact of Brexit on UK government policy towards Northern Ireland has undoubtedly contributed to the destabilisation of the political settlement. [R]
74.1400 KELLY, Matthew —
This article examines, first, how environmental concerns have shaped British politics since 1945, making the environment an object of governance; and second, how political developments have an environmental history, focussing on the environmental demands of social democracy. It contends that environmentalism should be considered alongside other political ideologies, such as socialism and feminism, as helping to constitute the modern British state and the evolving relationship between government and the citizen. It considers how the management of the terrestrial environment became a hotly contested matter in the postwar decades, drawing a distinction between the politics of ‘landscape preservation’ and ‘nature conservation’. This discussion is related to access politics and questions of rural governance and regulation, particularly with respect to the agricultural sector. The article concludes with a discussion of some current environmental concerns, reflecting on the possible transition from today’s ‘carbon democracy’ to tomorrow’s ‘renewable democracy’. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1401 KEMMERLING, Achim —
This introduction to the special issue “Policy Innovation in the Global South and South-North Policy Learning” shows how analyses of South-North policy learning need to go beyond standard debates of inter- and transnational policy learning, transfer and diffusion. It discusses crucial concepts and proposes three asymmetries that influence not only the likelihood for learning to occur, but also the type of policy learning and the concomitant empirical evidence needed. It illustrates the usefulness of this approach, summarizing the four contributions in the special issue. The introduction highlights that South-North policy learning happens much more often than usually believed, but that it is often concealed, underreported and overlooked. [R]
74.1402 KEMMERLING, Achim ; MAKSZIN, Kristin —
South-North policy learning faces many obstacles and often leads to missed opportunities or distorted translations. Given the pariah nature of the Chilean dictatorship, international learning happened against all odds. Drawing on several sources — media content, parliamentary debates, and some background interviews — the article illustrates how the Chilean pension reform became “repackaged” in two ways. First, it was concealed, meaning proponents avoided referencing Chile. Second, it was imperfectly translated, which led to several distortions, such as avoiding a reflection on the political prerequisites for stable pension reforms. Some general lessons are derived for South–North policy learning. [R]
74.1403 KIM, Seongcheol —
In taking stock of the ruling Fidesz party’s project of ‘illiberal democracy’ in Hungary, this article first develops considerations based on Claude Lefort’s democratic theory for critiquing ‘illiberal democracy’ and post-democracy alike, situating the former in an early 2010s post-democratic moment characterised by the emergence of a neoliberal crisis management regime in the Eurozone. ‘Illiberal democracy’ and ‘market-conforming democracy’ are both problematic from this standpoint insofar as they subordinate the key Lefortian dimension of democratic contestation to either the primacy of the markets or a reified conception of the ‘national interest’ as represented by a single party. The analysis then traces the development of ‘illiberal democracy’ and its construction of key signifiers such as the ‘national interest’ in programmatic speeches made by Viktor Orbán, from its beginnings in the post-democratic moment to subsequent crisis conjunctures in which it has redefined itself against ever newer threats. [R]
74.1404 KOEHLER-DERRICK, Gabriel ; LEE, Melissa M. —
A distinguishing feature of the modern state is the broad scope of social welfare provision. This remarkable expansion of public assistance was characterized by huge spatial and temporal disparities. What explains the uneven expansion in the reach of social welfare? We argue that social welfare expansion depends in part on the ability of the governed to compel the state to provide rewards in return for military service — and crucially, that marginalized groups faced greater barriers to obtaining those rewards. In colonial states, subjects faced a bargaining disadvantage relative to citizens living in the colony and were less likely to win concessions from the state for their wartime sacrifices. We test this argument using a difference-in-differences research design and a rich data set of local spending before and after World War I in colonial Algeria. Our results reveal that social welfare spending expanded less in communes where the French subject share of the population was greater. This paper contributes to the state-building literature by highlighting the differential ability of the governed to bargain with the state in the aftermath of conflict. [R]
74.1405 KOMAI, Eléonore —
This article explores migrant integration policy frames in Japan based on a multi-scalar research design. The development of migrant integration frames mirrors a process where the local scale has contributed to the development of a national policy based on the concept of “multicultural coexistence.” Under the impulsion of immigration reforms, the central government has consolidated the national framework and strengthened its involvement in the governance of migrant integration turning to a more economic framing of migrants. While the cases of Aichi prefecture and Nagoya and Toyohashi cities (located in Aichi prefecture) reflect a gradual convergence of frames with the national level, policies in Kyoto prefecture and Kyoto city do not echo such shifts. [R, abr.]
74.1406 KOPEC, Anna —
Policy change is not an instantaneous or linear process. In fact, change includes several mechanisms working in tandem and even against one another. This article examines the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on homelessness policy in Canada. In a sector that is already plagued with emergency responses — rather than long-term solutions — the pandemic has initiated a critical juncture where policy change is possible, but not guaranteed. Although the existing failures to alleviate homelessness in Canada make policy failings even more obvious, aspects of the pre-existing Canadian response to homelessness negate change. The pandemic, however, has led to temporary solutions and created a setting where longterm change is possible. Using over 150 primary sources, this article analyses mechanisms of change and path dependence in the pandemic response to homelessness. The presence of such mechanisms is tested in three major Canadian cities. [R]
74.1407 KRASNA, Joshua S. ; LASRY, Hadar —
The Middle East has undergone significant changes in the past two decades. Most significantly, the region has experienced the dissolution of the post-1991 America-centric regional security complex as the US reduces its forces and retools its center of effort toward the Indo-Pacific, and the creation of a new gas-centered sub-regional security complex in the Eastern Mediterranean. These changes have impacted Israel’s stature in its region and have led to significant changes in Israel’s foreign and national security policy. While in the past, Israel viewed itself as a “villa in the jungle” — not as an integral part of the region — it now sees itself as part of its surroundings and is pursuing a much more regional-centric policy. This change is clear in issue-specific alliances and collective security arrangements, as well as in long-range economic relationships. [R, abr.]
74.1408 KROLIKOWSKI, Alanna ; HALL, Todd H. —
Huawei, the telecommunications company based in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), has presented the governments of several middle powers with a policy dilemma. On the one hand, Huawei’s affordable 5G network technology is attractive to telecommunications operators in these countries, which do not have domestic producers of this equipment. On the other hand, the US government and intelligence agencies in other countries maintain that Huawei gear presents intolerable network security risks, a charge that the PRC government and Huawei forcefully reject as they insist Huawei merits access to foreign markets. Facing the question of whether and how to allow the installation of Huawei’s 5G equipment in their domestic networks, the governments of Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany have been caught between the competing demands of the two rivalrous superpowers and faced internal divisions among communities of government experts. At first glance, Japan, the UK, and Germany each appear to have responded to the Huawei dilemma in a different way. The Japanese government moved quickly and without formal announcement to exclude Huawei from its market, while publicly denying a ban. The UK government initially allowed Huawei to supply some of its national 5G infrastructure, but then reversed itself to ban the company’s equipment outright after a U.S. regulatory change. [R, abr.]
74.1409 LABANINO, Rafael ; DOBBINS, Michael —
This article explores how democratic backsliding affects the value of expertise provision for interest groups in influencing policymaking. The analysis is conducted on an original survey of Czech, Hungarian, Polish, and Slovenian energy, healthcare, and higher education interest groups active at the national level. All four countries experienced varying degrees and forms of populism and democratic backsliding in the past decade. Yet effective governance in all three policy fields still requires expert knowledge. We find that de-democratization affects expertise provision negatively, indeed, but not uniformly: the stronger the backsliding, the more a close relationship with governing parties matters for sharing expertise. Yet even in the context of de-democratization, participation in parliamentary hearings/committees is of pivotal importance for expertise provision. Moreover, intergroup cooperation is an important signal for expertise exchange: organizations with EU umbrella membership and active domestic networking activities attribute significantly higher importance to expertise in influencing policy than groups lacking these assets. [R]
74.1410 LABORGNE, Pia —
The energy transition represents a complex and long-term process taking place at different governance levels and representing a set of policies and structural changes. The local level, especially cities and regions, can be considered as a central level for the implementation of energy transitions. These transitions are only in part technical ones, but essentially embedded in, based on, and consisting of changes in social practices and in the organization of societal problem-solving transforming infrastructure governance. This paper demonstrates one central form of organizational change in local energy transition strategies: The creation of local intermediaries, defined by their function and position in between other actors. Based on a case study in Frankfurt/Main, Germany, and referring to the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions and the concept of social innovation, it analyses how systemic intermediaries can e.g. bridge the gap from niche to changing the regime. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1461]
74.1411 LAHDELMA, Ilona —
I explore the link between local socio-economic gains from refugee acceptance and subsequent support for refugee immigration. I leverage unique Finnish panel data about politicians’ policy preferences and their electoral success. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that across the political spectrum, politicians in areas with the highest rates of asylum-seekers per capita (i.e., poorer rural areas) become more willing to take refugees after managing a reception center for asylum-seekers. This is in contrast to the national-level negative narrative on refugee intake. This favorable change in position in highly affected areas is most likely due to the depopulation these areas suffer from. Receiving asylumseekers makes rural communities think of refugee intake as a solution to their socio-economic problems. These results have policy implications and offer lessons for rethinking the role of local economic context in immigration attitudes. [R]
74.1412 LANG, David ; ESBENSHADE, Lief ; WILLER, Robb —
Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is critical to containing the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. To increase vaccination rates, the State of Ohio launched a million dollar lottery in May 2021. Following a pre-registered analysis, we estimate the effects of Ohio’s lottery program Vax-a-Million on COVID-19 vaccination rates by comparing it to a “synthetic control” composed of eight other states. We find a statistically insignificant 1.3% decrease in the full vaccination rate in Ohio at the end of the lottery period. We investigate the robustness of our conclusion to model specifications through a multiverse analysis of 216 possible models, including longer time periods and alternative vaccination measures. The majority (88%) find small negative effects in line with the results of our pre-registered model. While our results are most consistent with a decrease in vaccination rate, they do not allow a firm conclusion on whether the lottery increased or decreased vaccine uptake. [R]
74.1413 LEE, Alexander ; PAINE, Jack —
This article describes and explains a previously overlooked empirical pattern in state revenue collection. As late as 1913, central governments in the West collected similar levels of per capita revenue as the rest of the world, despite ruling richer societies and experiencing a long history of fiscal innovation. Western revenue levels permanently diverged only in the following half-century. We identify the twentieth-century great revenue divergence by constructing a new panel data set of central government revenue with broad spatial and temporal coverage. To explain the pattern, we argue that sustainably high levels of revenue extraction require societal demand for an activist state, and a supply of effective bureaucratic institutions. Neither factor in isolation is sufficient. We formalize this insight in a game-theoretic model. The government can choose among low-effort, legibility-intensive, and crony-favoring strategies for raising revenues. Empirically, our theory accounts for low revenue intake in periods of low demand (the nineteenth-century West) or low bureaucratic capacity (twentieth-century former colonies), and for eventual revenue spikes in the West. [R]
74.1414 LEE Jun Sung ; KIM Chong-Sup —
This paper examines the role of nonformal education in sub-Saharan African countries with a focus on community participation and social capital in Senegal and Tanzania. Nonformal education initiatives are categorized into community school systems, NGO-led projects, and religion-based organization-led initiatives. The concept of social capital, as described by Pierre Bourdieu and James S. Coleman, is used to explain the relationship between diverse partnerships in education development. The community school system and NGO-led projects promote the generation and positive use of social capital by incentivizing voluntary participation and providing ownership to local community members. However, despite certain advantages of religion-based organizations, their contribution may pose problems due to their lack of structure and adherence to outdated customs, potentially leading to a lack of progress and violation of basic human rights. This case aligns more with Bourdieu’s view on social capital, which stratifies the status quo and hinders positive change. [R]
74.1415 LEIGH, Andrew ; McALLISTER, Ian —
The partisan allocation of public funds has a long history in Australian politics. Using a unique dataset, which allows us to distinguish the meritbased component of the funding decision from the politically based component, we examine the 2018-2019 Australian sports grants scandal. We find that local funding allocations for sports infrastructure were directed disproportionately to win marginal electorates and to reward loyal supporters. However, contrary to our expectations, we find virtually no electoral impact of the grants: those electorates that received more sporting grant funding were no more likely to swing in favour of the government in the 2019 election than electorates that received no funding. A straw poll of members of the House of Representatives suggests one possible explanation as to why pork-barrelling persists: parliamentarians tend to overestimate its electoral impact. [R]
74.1416 LI Aitong —
New discussions on carbon pricing are underway in Japan. In 2012, Japan introduced a nationwide carbon tax named the Global Warming Countermeasure Tax. However, a gap remains between the price level set by this tax and the levels needed for Japan to achieve its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. Combining perspectives from an Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) with insights on brokerage mechanisms in social network analysis (SNA), this study reviews the history of the carbon pricing debate in Japan and also analyzes the dynamics between different advocacy coalitions in the policy network. The evolution of the carbon-pricing debate in Japan is divided into four historical stages: (1) the first attempt to establish a carbon pricing system (from the early 2000s to 2015); (2) fierce debate on the necessity of readjusting the carbon pricing system (from 2016 to 2017); (3) efforts to sustain the carbon pricing discussion (from 2017 to 2019); and (IV) the reopened discussion on carbon pricing under new climate pledge (from 2020 to 2021). The unbridgeable gap between advocacy coalitions and the subsequent long-lasting political stalemate on carbon pricing, to some extent, reflects limited policy learning and related capacities that are deeply entrenched in Japan’s vertically segmented bureaucracy. [R, abr.]
74.1417 LI Jin —
The existence of the green policy implementation gap in China has aroused widespread concern, and is frequently explained with officials’ characteristics, problematic institutions, and citizens’ participation. However, few studies have noticed the intermittence of the gap. By coding six media signals and 394 documents issued by the central government (2000-2015) from 27 items in dimensions of credibility/reliability, intensity, and clarity according to the signalling theory, causes of the intermittence were explored. I found that central signals are the driving force. Document signals work better than media signals, particularly in Hu Jintao’s era. Documents’ credible commitments, threats, legal effects, issuing departments, wording intensity, clear definition of departments and society’s responsibilities, and regulation targets can significantly stimulate local governments’ environmental regulation behaviours, especially in eastern China. In Xi Jinping’s era, credible commitments and environmental campaigns’ impacts are higher. The paper demonstrates how, where and when China’s model of environmental authoritarianism is effective. [R]
74.1418 LILJA, Mona ; BAAZ, Mikael ; HASSELLIND, Filip Strandberg —
Resistance is often depicted in terms of antagonism, in which its core is the politicization of different issues or identities. This paper, however, seeks to add to previous research by displaying how depoliticization could also be understood as a form of resistance. De/Politicization has previously been addressed in the Social Sciences as a power tactic. But, by bringing insight from, as well as illuminating, the ‘missing women’ situation in India, we suggest that depoliticization could also be considered a tactical form of dissent. [R] [See Abstr. 74.259]
74.1419 LIN Xinhao ; ZHOU Wei ; MI Hong —
China implemented a universal two-child policy in 2016. But its earlier onechild policy resulted in a large population of one-child parents who face miserable later lives if their only-child passes away before them. China’s Current social assistance to such Shidu families is not supportive enough and provides insufficient coverage. Using demographic methods, this paper estimates both the mortality of only-children and the population of Shidu parents over 49 years-old. Furthermore, it advocates for improvements to the standard of social assistance for Shidu families and measures the financial sustainability of that suggested standard. After analyzing Chinese national census data and China Fertility Status Survey data, we found that the risk of death for a rural only-child was higher than for an urban only-child in every age group. Following the concept of period parity progression, we estimated the scale of Shidu parents, which will gradually increase to a peak of 1.05 million in 2030. Considering present policies and the Shidu parents’ unmet needs, we argue that China’s central government should increase its economic support of such families, include those support policies in a comprehensive social security system, and offer more emotional care. [R]
74.1420 LÓPEZ GARCÍA, Ana Isabel ; MAYDOM, Barry —
How does the receipt of remittances shape recipients’ attitudes towards taxation? We argue that remittances are likely to reduce support for the fiscal contract of taxes in exchange for public services because recipients rely less on the national economy and the state for their well-being. Remittance recipients can use the money sent by friends or family overseas to obtain public services in the private market instead of, or in addition to, tax-funded welfare services. In doing so, remittance recipients become detached from the national political community and develop a transactional relationship with the state whereby they pay licence fees, taxes and bribes to protect investment goods procured with remittances, making them less willing to support general taxation and more likely to approve of tax evasion and avoidance. We find strong support for our theory in analysis of survey data from Africa and Latin America. Our article contributes to knowledge of the micro-foundations of the fiscal contract and the political-economic effects of emigration and remittances on migrants’ homelands. [R]
74.1421 LOWDER, Morgan A. ; HOBERT, Anthony, Jr. ; SHOUB, Kelsey —
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) was born out of the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act in the backdrop of highly racialised and otherizing fears about the mythical “welfare queen.” However, the perception of Black exploitation of public benefits to White detriment is not exclusively a modern phenomenon. One of its original manifestations can be found in White reactions to the Freedmen’s Bureau during the post-Civil War period of Reconstruction. We therefore argue that state decisions to allocate spending towards cash assistance and coercive programmes designed to motivate work participation and regulate private behaviour are shaped by the imprint of this historic institution. Using TANF spending data from 2001 to 2019 and data on Freedmen’s Bureau field offices, we find evidence of a link between these offices’ historic prevalence and contemporary, coercive allocations. However, we find little evidence that this link extends to spending towards cash assistance. [R]
74.1422 LU Shenghua ; WANG Hui —
Conventional studies show that political connections have significant distributional effects. Yet, the means by which political connections affect the distribution of economic resources has not been fully investigated. This paper examines the role of political connections in the allocation of government procurements in China by combining quantitative and qualitative evidence. For quantitative analysis, we focus on a specific type of political connections, namely revolving-door recruitment. A unique dataset between 2016 and 2020 based on the contract-level transaction records of government procurements and the resumes of listed firms’ board members and executives is established. The results suggest that firms establishing political connections by recruiting former government officials acquire more government procurements in the connected jurisdictions. The results demonstrate that political connections exploit the loopholes in the context of weak institutions to benefit companies. [R, abr.]
74.1423 MACIUKAITE-ZVINIENE, Saule ; VALYS, Taurimas —
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has overwhelmed the Lithuanian healthcare system. In an attempt to meet its emergency situation and mitigate the new challenges, the Government reached out to the private sector, aiming to develop a sustainable cooperation approach in healthcare service provision. The article examines the potential implications for the healthcare system in Lithuania and adaptation paths. The preliminary overview refers to the assumption that the efforts to deliver sustainable service in the healthcare sector were uncoordinated and showed institutional vulnerability in both private and public sectors. [R]
74.1424 MAGUIRE, Anna —
This article explores what the diversification of British political history might look like. Building on an expanded definition of citizenship and attention to ‘ordinary’ politics, it suggests several questions which might diversify political history’s content and approach. Whom do we count as political actors? Who has access to democratic processes and where does politics happen beyond these processes? To what forms of political thought do we attend? Drawing on examples from my own research on refugees and asylum seekers in modern Britain, and on the wider field of modern British history, I demonstrate the possibilities of diversification as a way to enliven political history’s future. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1425 MAISURADZE, Nino —
Because Georgia was a part of Russia’s Tsarist Empire in 1893-1917, this political phase of the modern Georgian nation’s development was accompanied not only by socioeconomic but also by independence issues. It is worth noting that, to achieve independence, a portion of Georgia’s political elite chose European-oriented policies. They used well-known concepts of the nation created by European authors as a theoretical foundation. In response to current debates about Georgia’s European identity, this study demonstrates the contribution of European nation theories to the formation of the modern Georgian nation, as well as the historical link with European values. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of foreign national theories, specifically European national theories, on Georgian political debates between 1893 and 1917. [R, abr.]
74.1426 MAKIYA, Kanan —
How should one characterize the US war of 2003? Was it a “liberation” of millions of people from tyranny, or a much hated “occupation”? This essay reflects on how the Interim Governing Council (IGC) — formed following the US-led invasion of Iraq and the removal of Saddam Hussein — conflated “democracy” with “representation” based on muhassasa (the practice of filling key government posts by “consensus” of the major-party bosses, using sectarian or ethnic criteria). This arrangement of the IGC proved ripe for corruption. Post-2003, identity politics continued to shape the outlook of Iraq’s political elite, but today a new generation has begun making itself heard. This generation believes in Iraq as a nation and understands democracy as more than a source of spoils to be divided among groups. [R] [First of a series of articles on "The Iraq invasion at twenty". See also Abstr. 74.938, 1314]
74.1427 MARIANI, Giulia ; VERGE, Tània —
Building on historical and discursive institutionalism, this article examines the agent-based dynamics of gradual institutional change. Specifically, using marriage equality in the United States as a case study, we examine how actors’ ideational work enabled them to make use of the political and discursive opportunities afforded by multiple venues to legitimize the process of institutional change to take off sequentially through layering, displacement, and conversion. We also pay special attention to how the discursive strategies deployed by LGBT advocates, religious-conservative organizations and other private actors created new opportunities to influence policy debates and tip the scales to their preferred policy outcome. The sequential perspective adopted in this study allows problematizing traditional conceptualizations of which actors support or contest the status quo, as enduring oppositional dynamics lead them to perform both roles in subsequent phases of the institutional change process. [R]
74.1428 MASCHIETTO, Roberta Holanda ; TOMESANI, Ana Maura —
In this article, we assess the effects of and responses to the Covid-19 pandemic in the Brazilian peripheries by relying on resilience theory and the experiences of peripheral actors during the first year of the pandemic. We consider these experiences to examine whether the initial responses to the crisis had the potential to bring about long-term positive change. We rely on thematic analysis of 80 interviews with leaders of grassroots organizations of different nature all over the country between October 2020 and January 2021. We argue that we cannot speak of resilience and system change unless we engage with the voices of those most affected by adversity. While in its first year the pandemic brought important traces of structural violence to the surface, providing an opportunity for structural change, peripheral views at that moment cast doubts about the extent to which those changes could lead to long-term structural changes. [R]
74.1429 MASTRO, Oriana Skylar ; SIEGEL, David A. —
We argue that a state considering opening negotiations is concerned not only with the adverse inference that the opposing state will draw, but also the actions that the opposing state might take in response to that inference. We use a formal model, with assumptions grounded in extensive historical evidence, to highlight one particular response to opening negotiations — the escalation of war efforts — and one particular characteristic of the state opening negotiations — its resilience to escalation. We find that states are willing to open negotiations under two conditions: when their opponents find escalation too costly, and when there is a signal of high resilience that only the highly resilient care to use. To illustrate the dynamics of the second condition, we offer an extended case study detailing North Vietnam’s changing approach to negotiations during the Vietnam War. [R, abr.]
74.1430 McCABE, Katherine T. —
Costly and unexpected medical bills have led many Americans to deplete their savings or put off medical care. This study examines how the public attributes blame for the costly health care system and how these blame attributions vary according to an individual’s own personal experiences with medical expenses. The results from multiple nationally representative surveys show that blame for health care costs is diffuse. Insurance companies and health care providers, such as hospitals, share a significant portion of the blame for these costs, and this is especially true among those who have firsthand experience with health care costs. Personal experience also somewhat reduces the likelihood that partisans concentrate blame for health care costs on the opposing party. More visible and proximate actors in the health care system may shield government from some of the blame for costs incurred in the current system. [R, abr.]
74.1431 MENÉNDEZ GONZÁLEZ, Irene ; OWEN, Erica ; WALTER, Stefanie —
In developing countries, trade is increasingly associated with greater returns to high-skilled labor and rising inequality. These empirical patterns are at odds with canonical models of trade in the developing world. What does this mean for the political economy of trade in these countries? We argue that although developing countries have a comparative advantage in low-skill products, these are produced by workers that are relatively high-skilled compared to their peers. Trade and global production benefit relatively skilled workers, particularly those exposed to exports and inward foreign direct investment in manufacturing. Our argument offers insight into why relatively skilled workers are most supportive of free trade and why inequality is rising in developing countries. We examine micro- and macro-level implications of our argument using cross-national survey data on policy preferences and aggregate data on trade and inequality. [R, abr.]
74.1432 MICHEL, Julian ; MILLER, Michael K. ; PETERS, Margaret E. —
Most autocracies restrict emigration yet still allow some citizens to exit. How do these regimes decide who can leave? We argue that many autocracies strategically target anti-regime actors for emigration, thereby crafting a more loyal population without the drawbacks of persistent co-optation or repression. However, this generates problematic incentives for citizens to join opposition activity to secure exit. In response, autocracies simultaneously punish dissidents for attempting to emigrate, screening out all but the most determined opponents. To test our theory, we examine an original data set coded from over 20,000 pages of declassified emigration applications from East Germany’s state archives. In the first individual-level test of an autocracy’s emigration decisions, we find that active opposition promoted emigration approval but also punishment for applying. Pensioners were also more likely to secure exit, and professionals were less likely. Our results shed light on global migration’s political sources and an overlooked strategy of autocratic resilience. [R]
74.1433 MIDDLETON, Alex —
This article asks how we might rethink the study of ‘ideas in politics’ in modern Britain. It suggests that historians need to set the problem in its international contexts in a more structured way. Focussing on the nineteenth century, the article reflects on conceptual angles opened up by ‘global intellectual’ and ‘entangled’ approaches to political ideas and behaviour. While stressing that these methods have their pitfalls, the article argues that a reconsideration of the seams where international and intellectual contexts meet can help to reconnect modern British political history with wider historical debates. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1434 MILLER, Manjari Chatterjee —
Why do victim states not ask for redress from perpetrator states? Focusing on former extractive colonies, the vast majority of which, despite having suffered brutal colonial rule, have not asked for redress — apologies, reparations or restitution—from their former colonizers, this article argues that the content of historical narratives in the victim state matters for interstate redress. When meta and sub-narratives in victim states do not conform with each other, framing and consensus mobilization on interstate redress is stymied. To show this, I code interstate redress in the Correlates of War data set of colony/colonizer states, and then use primary sources — interviews and school textbooks — to examine two victim states: Namibia, a ‘less likely’ case which has sought interstate redress, and India, a ‘more likely’ case which has not. Academic and policy conversations on interstate redress have thus far largely focused on perpetrator states. [R, abr.]
74.1435 MONT’ALVERNE, Camila ; MORAES, Diego ; KEMER, Thaíse —
A significant part of the Western literature on democracy assumes that political participation leads to citizens being more committed to democratic values. However, we do not know to what extent this is true in young democracies with an authoritarian tradition. Hence, this article aims to examine whether politically engaged Brazilians are more democratic. To do so, we analyzed whether there is any association between political participation, support for democracy, and democracy relativization through multivariate regression models. Our database comprises a representative sample of 2417 interviews with the electorate of São Paulo in 2019. The results show a statistically significant association between unconventional political participation and support for democracy. General political participation is associated with non-relativization of democracy only, showing a limited relationship between support for democracy and participation. [R, abr.]
74.1436 MOTTA, Filipe M. —
This paper seeks to characterise the relationship between civil society and mining in Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2000 and 2020 by observing the actions of three different groups in resisting the expansion of mining. The analysis points to the existence of a plurality of forms of engagement, organisation and ways of establishing relations between civil society and the state and the market. It also reveals tension between different ways of framing the mining problem by civil society, of posing this problem publicly and establishing ways to confront it. Three sets of actors are identified: (1) environmental NGOs, who are market-oriented; (2) groups with looser ties who are more radical; and (3) social movements aligned with the identities of a state-orientated traditional left. My analysis suggests that the divergence in framing the context by these three different groups hinders the construction of a substantive public debate on the mining issue in Brazil. The article is divided into three parts. First, it briefly outlines the process of mining expansion in Brazil, starting in the mid-2000s, highlighting its economic impact. Second, it considers the relationship between civil society articulation and deliberation. Third, it characterises the constitution of these different civil society groups who have established interactions with market and state actors that fostered this expansion. [R] [See Abstr. 74.149]
74.1437 MURPHY, Colm —
Politics and history are closely intertwined and historians play a vital role in British public life. Yet, British political history, which has a critical contribution to make for understanding British politics today, faces two urgent challenges. First, academic history has retreated from subjects that remain hugely popular in media and trade publishing and of interest to social scientists, such as the histories of political institutions and formal power structures. Second, political history is disconnected from innovative trends in the wider historiography of modern Britain. Combined, these issues leave political historians in an ambiguous position in relation to the wider field, to other academic disciplines and to contemporary political debates. After discussing these challenges, this introduction surveys this special issue, which reflects on what (if anything) is distinctive about political history as practised today, and what its contribution to historiography, social science and public life should be. It ends by posing key questions for historians of all methodological stripes who investigate Britain’s political past. [R] [Introduction to a series of articles, edited by Lyndsey JENKINS, Colm MURPHY and Robert SAUNDERS. See Abstr. 74.31, 704, 745, 772, 845, 899, 939, 1364, 1369, 1374, 1390, 1400, 1424, 1433, 1469]
74.1438 MYAT, Aung Kaung ; DAVID, Roman ; HOLLIDAY, Ian —
Consensus democracies outperform their majoritarian counterparts, but reform is difficult. From an institutional perspective, a dominant majority can block change. From a political culture perspective, democracy is endogenous to context. However, critical junctures can alter not only political configuration but also political culture. In Myanmar, the Bamar majority split following the 2021 military coup. One fragment aligned with coup leaders. Another, certainly larger, joined ethnic minorities in opposition and resistance. Did the coup inspire a shift toward consensus politics? This article looks before and after the coup at peak institutions and Facebook posts. Opposition institutions in the 2020s are more diverse than cabinets led by the National League for Democracy in the 2010s. Political discourse has shifted from democratic federalism, with a focus on centralized control, to federal democracy, with a centrifugal dynamic. [R, abr.]
74.1439 NAČINOVIĆ BRAJE, Ivana ; DUMANČIĆ, Kosjenka ; HRUŠKA, Domagoj —
The COVID-19 pandemic and consequent global travel restrictions created an unprecedented crisis for the tourism industry. Considering that tourism generates about one fifth of the Croatian [economy], the COVID-19 crisis posed a threat not only to companies in tourism, but also to the Croatian economy as a whole. This article examines the interplay of public and private institutions whose aim was to support resilience in tourism and prevent negative spill overs to other sectors. The regional Civil Protection Headquarters and a large hospitality company were analyzed as a part of the resilience assessments. Although both institutions have shown a high level of agility and resilience in their crisis management, this article outlines the deep societal interdependence between the public and private sector in times of global crisis. [R]
74.1440 NANES, Matthew ; RAVANILLA, Nico ; HAIM, Dotan —
Effective public goods provision requires coproduction by both citizens and the government. Search costs that complicate citizens’ ability to share information constitute a critical and understudied impediment to this coproduction. We experimentally evaluate search costs in a rural, conflict-affected province of the Philippines. We randomize the rollout of a police hotline that dramatically reduces the costs of reporting and compare it against both the status quo and an alternative intervention that builds trust but does not affect search costs. The hotline increased the likelihood of reporting crimes by 10-19 percentage points. The intervention reduced perceived insurgent activity but had no perceptible impact on ordinary crime. Our findings suggest that addressing search costs substantially improves service delivery, potentially explaining why policies imported from higher-capacity countries may fail to achieve results in developing contexts. [R]
74.1441 NAVIA, Patricio ; ALEMÁN, Eduardo —
On 4 September 2022, Chileans unequivocally rebuffed a new constitution proposed by an elected convention tasked with replacing the constitution inherited from the military government. The constitution-writing process started with broad support among the population, and in its early days most believed approval would be certain. However, over time, trust in the convention plummeted, and opposition to the content of its proposal soared. This article argues that three reasons explain this outcome: the convention’s proposal was radical and out of sync with most Chileans; its amateurish membership made too many mistakes and failed to coursecorrect; and the declining popularity of President Gabriel Boric, the most prominent figure in the proreform camp, further damaged the proposal’s fate. [R]
74.1442 NEWMANN, William W. ; CHRISTIANSEN, William T. —
An active learning approach to the study of US national security decision making decision making can be achieved through the use of an in-class role-playing simulation. This article considers the importance of solid foundations for simulation design: (1) simulation preparation should be linked to class materials and learning outcomes, but also stand on its own; and (2) success in mirroring reality requires a careful, even rigid, simulation structure. This article also provides a methodology for assessing the simulation’s impact on two separate issues: (1) student knowledge of the national security interagency process (based on a knowledge quiz given three times during the semester); and (2) student perception of the difficulty of making of national security decisions (based on a questionnaire given three times during the semester). Students were assigned roles within the national security bureaucracy, and presented with a challenge — the possibility of large-scale Iranian intervention in the Syrian Civil War. The assessment of student knowledge is still a work in process, complicated by logistical factors. The assessment of student perceptions of difficulty of decision making, however, yielded interesting preliminary results that should be replicated to make any conclusions more robust: Students began the course with a perception that national security decision making is highly complicated and difficult. [R, abr.]
74.1443 NIE, Lin ; WANG, Hongchuan —
Prior research has overlooked the dynamics between government responsiveness and citizen satisfaction. This article addresses this gap by examining (1) how styles of government responses affect citizen satisfaction differently and (2) how external events moderate the effects of government responsiveness on citizens. Drawing upon 79,360 environmental demands sent to local leaders in China and 100,905 Chinese citizens’ environmental assessments collected from 2013 to 18, this study finds that actional and explanatory responses positively influence citizen satisfaction, while referral responses negatively affect citizen satisfaction. Moreover, these relationships are subject to the moderating effects of exogenous pressures. Top-down pressure from the central government’s environmental inspections and bottom-up pressure from the environmental documentary Under the Dome represent two types of exogeneities during the study period. [R, abr.]
74.1444 NOH, Abdillah ; YASHAIYA, Nadia H. —
While the expectation is that electoral turnover spurred by change agents will translate to political reform and/or consolidation of reform, recent outcomes have been disappointing. Taking the example of Malaysia’s recent political change, we argue that carrying out political reform and consolidating them remain elusive because there are strong tendencies by all parties — change agents included — to stay invested to aspects of state’s institutional qualities. We explain that institutions ‘bite’; that change agents are not completely free agents because political reform remains highly dependent on existing institutional qualities, the so-called rules of the game. While new reform ideas hold promises of change, issues of path dependence, increasing returns, and dense institutional networks impose challenges to actors making them highly invested in existing institutional mixes resulting in a botched democratisation effort. [R]
74.1445 NUCCI, Maria Rosaria Di ; PRONTERA, Andrea —
The article analyses drivers as well as coordination mechanisms and instruments for the energy transition in Italy from a multilevel governance perspective. It addresses the structural constraints that influenced the decision-making processes and organisation of the Italian energy sector and the socio-technical challenges opened up by enhancing renewables. The current energy system is making the move from a centralised, path-dependent institutional and organisational structure to a more fragmented and pluralistic one. Renewables and decentralised patterns of production and consumption are key elements of this paradigmatic shift, which is paralleled by a multiplication of decision-making arenas and actors. These actors follow different interests, problem understandings and green growth narratives, increasing the complexity of governing the energy transition. Against this background, community-based renewable energy policy is assuming a very important role. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.1461]
74.1446 OGDEN, Chris ; BHASKAR, Mark —
The decline of major global empires has frequently rested upon an act of strategic naïvety. Such an action or decision, although innocuous at the time, results many decades later in those empires collapsing. History is punctuated by examples of great powers that have misjudged the intentions of a rising power, leading to a highly adversarial relationship. Such unintended consequences can be seen in United States policy towards China, which has allowed Beijing to emerge as a clear competitor that is threatening to usurp US hegemony. This article considers these dynamics across seven major empires, dating from ancient Carthage circa 814 BC to modern day Pax Americana. By connecting the past to the present, we find that comparable acts of strategic naïvety by other empires are now increasingly evident in current US-China relations, and which have often occurred for similar reasons. [R]
74.1447 ONG, Lynette H. —
China has two repressive systems that exist simultaneously: the highly coercive and surveilled system in Xinjiang, and the trust-based model of everyday repression prevalent throughout the rest of the country. The trust-based model has undergirded grassroots governance in China and facilitated the routine implementation of Zero-Covid. Drawing on a protest event dataset, I analyze the key characteristics of the covid protests erupted in November and December of 2022, before situating them in the larger context of China’s political future under Xi Jinping’s rule. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has responded to the protests with a combination of concession and repression. But neither the carrot nor the stick is able to fundamentally address the deep-rooted social problems or halt the tide of dissent. Coupled with structural economic challenges, these protests could be the harbinger of a new era of contentious state-society relations in China, the seeds of which were sown years ago–only precipitated and underscored by the CCP’s covid debacle. [R]
74.1448 ONWUZURUIGBO, Ifeanyi —
In recent times, Nigeria and Ghana have experienced bloody conflicts between herders and farmers. Studies identify indigeneity and citizenship struggles as causal factors of the conflicts. Ghana and Nigeria have implemented policies and legislations to manage herders and farmers conflicts. Because scholarly engagement with the policies and legislations are relatively scant, the ways in which indigeneity and citizenship struggles are subtly ingrained in the provisions of the legislations and policies are yet to be unraveled. This study explores indigeneity and citizenship struggles in Ghana and Nigeria and how they foreground state policies and legislations for managing the conflicts. [R]
74.1449 OSORIO GONNET, Cecilia —
Inside the wave of diffusion of Conditional Cash Transfer in Latin America is possible to observe the transfer of instruments of the programs from one country to another. The article develops a comparative analysis of Chile’s psychosocial support transfer to Paraguay, Colombia, and Guatemala. The dimensions of analysis are instruments, time and policy space; the information was collected from primary and secondary sources. The findings show two positive cases — the instrument was adopted — and one negative. Furthermore, it shows the relevance of the stages of the diffusion wave and the particularities of the Social Policy Space in explaining the characteristics of the transfer process. [R]
74.1450 PALER, Laura, et al. —
Oil discoveries, paired with delays in production, have created a new phenomenon: sustained post-discovery, pre-production periods. While research on the resource curse has debated the effects of oil on governance and conflict, less is known about the political effects of oil discoveries absent production. Using comprehensive electoral data from Uganda and a difference-in-differences design with heterogeneous effects, we show that oil discoveries increased electoral support for the incumbent chief executive in localities proximate to discoveries, even prior to production. Moreover, the biggest effects occurred in localities that were historically most electorally competitive. Overall, we show that the political effects of oil discoveries vary subnationally depending on local political context and prior to production, with important implications for understanding the roots of the political and conflict curses. [R]
74.1451 PANDEY, Chandra Lal —
Rapid urbanisation and urban population growth raise problems for sustainability. The unplanned and haphazard patterns of urbanisation, with a scarcity of resources for meeting the basic needs and services of a rapidly burgeoning urban population, are becoming an emerging challenge in the era of climate change — one of the biggest threats facing the communities, cities and nations of the world. Among the places encountering challenges of resource scarcity and urban sustainability are the cities of the Himalayan country Nepal. Its government has been unable to develop sustainably integrated urban development plans and implement them, for various reasons including paucity of data and of evidence-based policy-making, poor political culture and corruption among the political and bureaucratic leadership. In this context, the role of civil society, utilising the practices of local democracy, is invaluable for making cities and communities sustainable. This role, however, has not been given adequate attention in either theory or practice. Employing qualitative research design, this article aims to capture the role of civil society — in particular neighbourhood associations — for urban sustainability, and the challenges and the prospects they have encountered while doing so in Nepal. [R] [See Abstr. 74.149]
74.1452 PION-BERLIN, David ; BRUNEAU, Thomas ; GOETZE, Richard B., Jr. —
The storming of the US Capitol building in January 2021 was a presidential attempt at a self-coup. To make the case, this article reviews elements of the Capitol assault and the events leading up to it, in light of the key conceptual components of a self-coup, and how those compare to attributes of other kinds of attacks on governments. The Trump self-coup will then be compared and contrasted empirically to other self-coups perpetrated by leaders. It is found that what separates successful self-coups from those that fail is whether the military backs the undertaking. Thus, a section is included on US military behaviour in response to Trump’s attempts to gain military adherence for his political actions. [R]
74.1453 PIZZIMENTI, Eugenio ; GIULIO, Marco Di —
The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) adopted in 2021 by the Italian government is explicitly committed to push the country towards a ‘radical ecological transition’ and sustainable development. However, the institutionalization of the paradigm of sustainable development, in Italy, is a story of a failure. The aim of this contribution is to investigate the hows and whys that may help explaining the failed institutionalization of the paradigm. By combining an ideational approach with a political system perspective, our empirical investigation analyses the initiatives promoted by Italian national governments, by covering a time span of over 20 years (1992-2020). Thick historical description and process tracing are used to provide an in-depth reconstruction of the process. Our results show that adverse combinations of factors of a cognitive, institutional and political nature have hindered the adoption of substantive policy outcomes, thus leading the institutionalization of the paradigm along a disjointed path. [R]
74.1454 PLAZA, Francisco —
Venezuela has suffered for more than twenty years from a totalitarian regime determined to systematically demolish all orders of national life. Beyond the material and institutional devastation, the true core of the destruction is of a spiritual order: the regime has corroded the national ethos. The task of recovering the soul of the nation is more urgent and arduous than the immense work of material and institutional reconstruction. [R]
74.1455 POLYAK, Palma —
Ireland’s emergence as a European hub for ICT and pharmaceutical multinationals highlights the growing tension between spatially dispersed economic activity and the nation-centered measures used to monitor it. While ‘big tech’ and ‘big pharma’ are often praised as powerful growth engines, their real contribution to the Irish economy remains unclear, as corporate tax avoidance artificially inflates statistics. By moving around intellectual property assets or engaging in factoryless manufacturing, firms go out of their way to book their profits in low-tax jurisdictions. Their products show up in Irish GDP and export figures, often without employing any Irish labour or capital in the production process. This article uses a novel empirical approach to distinguish job-sustaining economic activity from accounting fiction. By contrasting traditional measures of economic growth on a sectoral level with the growth of employment and earnings, it identifies sectors with sudden discrepancies that are indicative signs of fictitious activity. Discrepancies cluster in the industries dominated by US-based multinationals. [R]
74.1456 PORTEUX, Jonson N. ; KIM, Sunil —
We address how democracy has influenced the ways in which the Korean state has managed the issue of labor-based collective action and suppression thereof. During the authoritarian period, the state, through specialized riot police, frequently, and violently, cracked down on protest movements and other forms of collective action. During democratization and post-democratic consolidation, private specialists in violence, operating with the consent of the state, began to replace public forces on the front lines, while working in concert out of the view of the public. Although such state/nonstate collaboration in the market for oftentimes illegal violence has been addressed in scholarship elsewhere, we demonstrate through detailed evaluation that the extant explanations are largely incomplete, as they fail to capture the effects of changing relative levels of state-based autonomy from societal and corporatist influence. [R]
74.1457 PRELEC, Tena ; SOARES DE OLIVEIRA, Ricardo —
This paper aims to provide evidence and analysis of the conveyor belt that allows Politically Exposed Persons (PEPs) to rehabilitate their money in western financial centres, while inserting Nigerian material into debates about transnational kleptocracy. It fleshes out the chain of service provision going from developing countries to western boutique firms or ‘rogue’ providers, ultimately reaching out to the large blue-chip firms that are instrumental for the validation of PEP wealth and reputations. We use an interpretive practice tracing methodology to elucidate the steps leading to money-laundering, relying on data from a wealth of primary and secondary sources as well as a wider dataset of residential real estate purchases. On the basis of these empirical insights, we find that enabling practices cannot be neatly situated in a dichotomy of lawful and unlawful behaviour. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.58]
74.1458 PRONTERA, Andrea —
By focussing on the Italian case and on transformations in state-market relations in the natural gas sector, this article examines the post-war European politics of energy security. It argues that rather than fostering EU-level path-breaking measures, the war has brought back the ‘partner state’ in the EU energy realm. This model, which supported the structuration of East-West energy interdependence during the Cold War, envisages direct modes of state intervention and closer government-energy company cooperation at home and abroad. Although the return of the (partner) state is helping Western European consumers by reducing their dependence on Russian gas, it has negative implications. It favours intra-European competition, limits further supranational integration in the energy sector and risks undermining the EU climate goals. This latter risk can be amplified by the encounter of the partner state with right-wing populist climate-sceptic parties, while it can be mitigated by the ‘greening’ of the partner state. [R]
74.1459 PRUYSERS, Scott —
As countries around the globe struggle to find appropriate solutions to the growing migration and refugee crisis, it is essential to better understand attitudes towards refugees. This article explores whether individual differences in personality can help explain anti refugee sentiments. The article takes an expansive approach, integrating both general personality traits (honesty-humility, emotionality, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, and openness) as well as the Dark Triad (narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy) into the analysis. While a large literature has explored the relationship between personality and prejudice generally, much less work has studied specific outgroups like refugees. Drawing on survey data from a representative sample of 2,500 Canadians the results reveal the importance of personality for understanding prejudicial attitudes towards refugees, and highlight the importance of studying both general and dark personality traits. [R]
74.1460 PURSLEY, Sara —
This article explores the pre-World War I writings of the Najafi cleric Hibat al-Din al-Shahrastani (1884-1967), situating them within the broader Islamic revival movement, the Iranian Constitutional Revolution, the Arabic Nahda, and the Ottoman Shiʿi shrine cities in the years preceding the British invasion of Basra in 1914. It makes four arguments. First, al-Shahrastani’s calls for constitutionalism, Islamic unity, revival, and the cultivation of the self were all attempts to respond to what he saw as the immediate and existential threat to his world posed by European imperial expansion. Second, he attempted in a variety of ways to mobilize what he called the Islamic social practices against this threat. Borrowing from his own theorization of these practices, I employ the concept of political sociality to gather his attempts to foster various social assemblages — of both newer and older provenance — that would cultivate Muslim subjects with the capacity to resist European aggression. Third, his conceptions of sociality and of political temporality, although often resonant with those of the more widely studied Sunni and Christian reformers of the Nahda, had specificities that I relate to his understandings of subject formation, the sense of impending calamity in his writings, and the borderlands context of the shrine cities. These conceptions were not necessarily affiliated with the nationalist and disciplinary project of the modern territorial state and were animated by a temporality of urgency rather than deferral. [R, abr.]
74.1461 RADTKE, Jörg ; WURSTER, Stefan —
Concerns about energy transition and policies to achieve a clean energy Europe are omnipresent in all European discourses. A transformation dynamic has captured all European states, whereby the extent, scope, and direction of this transition vary between different (EU member-) states and political levels (European, national, federal, local). Likewise, governance dynamics and policies vary between the different European governance and regulatory systems. This Special Issue aims to take stock and discuss approaches in governance and policy research to assess, analyse and evaluate this variance from a theoretical, methodological, and empirical perspective. Of particular interest are recourses to investigate concepts describing and analysing the formation of new policy fields. The role of specific architectures in which the energy transformation in Europe is embedded [is] analysed to explain the energy transition policies and their transformative properties. [R, abr.] [First article of a thematic issue on "Multilevel governance of energy transitions in Europe". See also Abstr. 74.1056, 1122, 1169, 1333, 1335, 1336, 1367, 1410, 1445]
74.1462 RAHM, Laura —
Global programmes (GPs) are crucial actors in transnational policy transfer but understudied in literature. The paper explores GP policy transfer in terms of instruments, space, and time from a comparative perspective. Employing a thematic analysis of policy/programme files and using the GP to prevent gender-biased sex selection as a case study, the paper compares implementation across diverse countries and regions. It finds similar policies and ideas are transferred, across scales, sectors, and actors throughout the policy cycle. Yet short programme cycles contradict longer timeframes needed to assess sex-selection policies and interventions to change social norms. [R]
74.1463 RAMÍREZ, Viviana ; VELÁZQUEZ LEYER, Ricardo —
The conditional cash transfer programme (CCT) for poor families was terminated in Mexico in 2019. CCTs seek to fight poverty under a social investment logic by promoting the formation of human capital through the compliance of behavioural conditionalities. The programme — the first of its kind introduced at national level — accomplished several achievements and was maintained and developed by three successive federal administrations. As the backbone of anti-poverty policy for more than two decades, its achievements included delivering positive results to a significant proportion of the population; and triggering the expansion of social policy beyond social insurance. As a result, it was emulated by governments across the globe. A programme of these characteristics would have been expected to generate path dependency and policy stability, yet it was swiftly terminated with practically no opposition. This article applies a framework of historical institutionalism to analyse the feedback effects developed during the duration of the programme from the perspectives of beneficiaries, in order to contribute to the explanation of its termination. The research is based on qualitative empirical data from interviews with former beneficiaries. Our findings show that self-undermining mechanisms linked to a ‘hard’ design and implementation of conditionalities counterbalanced the self-reinforcing mechanisms derived from the benefits supplied by the programme, causing beneficiaries to become apathetic towards its continuity or termination. [R, abr.]
74.1464 REDA, Amir Abdul ; FRASER, Nicholas AR ; KHATTAB, Ahmed —
Existing studies argue that anti-immigrant sentiment stems from threat perception. Yet, conventional theoretical approaches cannot fully explain hostility toward immigrants in the Middle East and North Africa, where lowskilled foreign workers occupy an inferior social and legal status vis-a-vis natives under the kafala system. Building on existing studies of immigration politics, we theorize how immigration policies can either facilitate or prevent the social mobility of foreign workers. Exploring immigration attitudes in 14 Middle East and North Africa countries using an original dataset that matches survey responses with host country-specific factors, we find that extreme rights-restricting immigration policies (such as the kafala system) encourage wealthier natives to be more hostile than their lower-class counterparts. Our study suggests that anti-immigrant sentiment is context-specific and influenced by local institutions. [R]
74.1465 RUANO, José Manuel ; DÍAZ-TENDERO, Aída —
The article analyses the impact of COVID-19 on health and long-term care systems, as well as institutional resilience by applying indicators of preparedness, agility and robustness. The study shows how the weakness of intergovernmental and cross-sectorial coordination instruments, and the particularities of the Spanish health and long-term care sectors, hindered the initial response to the challenges presented by the pandemic. However, after the first tragic wave of the disease, the intensification of cooperation mechanisms between health and social services authorities, as well as the free initiative of long-term care facility managers, corrected these initial errors and reversed the long-term care facilities’ extremely fragile situation. [R]
74.1466 RUDOLFSEN, Ida —
This study assesses the claim that food insecurity leads to participation in unrest. I argue that insecure access to food can provide a motivational force to engage in urban unrest. But individuals must also have the capacity to partake in collective action, and acute food insecurity may undermine mobilization potential. Further, food insecurity is a mundane and widespread grievance often seen as an apolitical issue. I therefore suggest that organizational networks could facilitate the occurrence of unrest, as they provide both an existing mobilizing structure and the potential to politicize an individual-level grievance. The article explores the relationship between food access and unrest participation on the individual level in the context of Johannesburg, South Africa. I find that food insecurity increases the likelihood of unrest participation and that some types of organizational networks are catalysts of such effects. [R]
74.1467 SALAMEY, Imad ; RAHBANI, Takla Katoul —
This article explores potential power-sharing models for post-conflict Syria. It surveys the literature on the need for power-sharing as a conflictmanagement tool for deeply divided societies and explores its suitability for Syria. Two particular power-sharing models are explored: the consociational and centripetal. Both arrangements are examined through a comparative research that assesses the success and failures of the Lebanese and Iraqi power-sharing experiences. The findings suggest that reform toward post-conflict reconstruction requires a multi-step political agreement that may be initiated in an agreement toward a transitional consociational power-sharing arrangement followed by the gradual attainment of centripetal-based power structure. [R]
74.1468 SANTIAGO, Abdiel ; KUSTOV, Alexander ; VALENZUELA, Ali A. —
Do voters update their racialized political preferences in response to new information? To answer this long-standing question, we conduct an original survey examining US mainland attitudes toward towards Puerto Rican statehood, a rare consequential racialized issue of low salience. To test whether public support for statehood can be changed, we embedded an information experiment describing Puerto Rico’s political status and its relationship to the US The treatment was designed to increase the perceived connection between the groups through effortful thinking. Descriptively, our results indicate that Americans are generally ambivalent to the idea of Puerto Rico becoming the 51st state. We further find that opposition to statehood is related to anti-immigration attitudes, conservative ideology, and lack of knowledge about the issue. [R, abr.]
74.1469 SAUNDERS, Robert —
The vote to leave the European Union in 2016 and the political crisis that followed offer obvious subjects for the political historian. Yet, the study of Brexit raises serious challenges for academic writing, concerning method, the political preferences of the historian and the implication of history as a discipline in the European debate. This article explores some of the dilemmas and opportunities confronting the historian of Brexit, focussing, in particular, on the challenges to be addressed, the utility of conventional political methods and the insights that might be drawn from allied fields. It argues for a greater emphasis on the imaginative resources on which the different campaigns could draw, urging greater attention to conventional wisdoms, languages of class, collective memory and the forging of cultural or exceptionalist identities. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1400]
74.1470 SAYEED, M. A. ; AKTAR, Lima —
The constitutional design of Bangladesh is characterized by an ambivalent choice: it aspires to establish a republican yet a Bengalee state by putting itself in the conflicting terrain within the demos-ethnos binary. This article aims to examine the implication of this problematic choice along all three axes of the constitution’s elemental parts: its identity, rights and structure. While the identity element of the Bangladesh Constitution embodies the ethno-nationalist vision of the Bengalee state that transforms demos into ethnos, its rights and structural aspects reflect its republican promise to transform ethnos into demos Contemporary scholarship seeks to confront the exclusionary dimension of the ethno-nationalistic choice in Bangladesh but ends up accepting ethnos as a politically superior value. Such an approach brings us to the politics of difference and, with that, undermines the integrationist potential of the republican constitution. In response, this article defends the republican promise of the Bangladesh Constitution while arguing that what we need in Bangladesh is the ‘de-ethnicization’ of the republic, one that can be achieved by transforming ethnos into demos and not the other way around. [R]
74.1471 SCARPELLO, Fabio —
New Zealand has a very plural policing landscape, though little is known about many of its facets. This article provides initial answers to three crucial questions: who plays a policing role in contemporary New Zealand, how is state power exercised, and what shapes state-society-policing relations? The findings show that neoliberalism has strongly affected statesociety-policing relations, and several actors across the state and society divide partake in police-centred partnerships. It also finds that state-society-policing relations reflect ideological, political and socioeconomic divisions inherent in contemporary New Zealand but arching back to its founding days. This emerges through analysing how the two main communityled policing initiatives, the Community Patrols New Zealand and the Māori wardens, relate to the police and the state. The findings matter beyond New Zealand and academia. They reiterate that plural policing is one of the primary expressions of how power is exercised in society, and it affects issues related to state legitimacy and social justice. [R]
74.1472 SCHARPF, Adam ; GLÄSSEL, Christian ; EDWARDS, Pearce —
How do international sports events shape repression in authoritarian host countries? International tournaments promise unique gains in political prestige through global media attention. However, autocrats must fear that foreign journalists will unmask their wrongdoings. We argue that autocracies solve this dilemma by strategically adjusting repression according to the spatial-temporal presence of international media. Using original, highly disaggregated data on the 1978 World Cup, we demonstrate that the Argentine host government largely refrained from repression during the tournament but preemptively cleared the streets beforehand. These adjustments specifically occurred around hotels reserved for foreign journalists. Additional tests demonstrate that (1) before the tournament, repression turned increasingly covert, (2) during the tournament, targeting patterns mirrored the working shifts of foreign journalists, (3) after the tournament, regime violence again spiked in locations where international media had been present. [R, abr.]
74.1473 SHADY, Stephanie N. —
Religious-secular clashes have contributed to the structure of political competition into the twenty-first century. Yet subnational regions did not experience the secular-clerical cleavage as states did. Historical experience with overlapping secular-clerical and centre-periphery cleavages has shaped how (sub)national communities approach the relationship between religion and territorial identity today. This essay builds a theory of the strategic use of religion to strengthen subnational identity using the cases of Alsace-Moselle and Catalonia. I argue that historical alignment of secular-clerical and centre-periphery cleavages has evolved to create a contemporary political opportunity structure for subnational elites to leverage religion to strengthen community identity and obtain authority devolution. As a result, I observe intrastate differences in religious pluralism policies and the framing of their links to community identity. [R]
74.1474 SHANI, Ron ; REINGEWERTZ, Yaniv ; VIGODA-GADOT, Eran —
What is the overall effect of intergovernmental grants on local public finance? While previous studies show an asymmetric effect of changes in intergovernmental grants on local taxation, other budgetary variables are often neglected. We take advantage of a 2011 Israeli reform in the context of a centralized country, which resulted in reduced intergovernmental grants for some local governments and increases for others, and analyse the overall effect on local spending, taxation, and deficits, using event study and difference-in-differences methodologies. Our results show that grant reductions led local governments to increase local tax rates and their annual deficits, but did not change local spending levels while revealing the mechanism behind rates adjustments. Local governments which experienced an increase in their grants increased their expenditures and lowered their tax rates and deficit levels. We find an asymmetric effect on tax rates: a grant reduction causes a tax hike which is twice as large as the tax reductions following a grant increase. This asymmetric effect can create tax hikes when grants decrease and then increase to their original level. Our results help establish the effect of intergovernmental grants on local taxation, and their effect on expenditure and fiscal balance in a centralized country. [R]
74.1475 SHARMAN, J. C. —
In this article I explain a nexus between slavery and state formation in Africa, proceeding from initial demographic and institutional conditions to an external demand shift, individual state responses, and their collective systemic consequences. Historically, African rulers faced distinctive challenges: low population density prioritized control of people more than territory, and internal disintegration was often a greater threat than external conquest. A massive expansion in the demand for slaves offered African rulers increased opportunities to use external resources for “outside-in” state building. Many did so by creating highly militarized predatory slaving states. The collective consequence was heightened systemic insecurity. Variation in the timing of these developments reflected regional and historical variation in the expansion of the demand for slaves. Slaving states appeared first in West Africa, reflecting the late-seventeenth-century expansion of the trans-Atlantic slave trade, before spreading to East Africa a century later, following the parallel later increase in the Indian Ocean slave trade. This “outside-in” path to state formation both parallels and contrasts with contemporary postcolonial state formation. [R]
74.1476 SIGURJONSSON, Throstur Olaf ; JOHANNSDOTTIR, Lara ; GUDMUNDSDOTTIR, Svala —
Iceland’s 360,000-person population has been gradually rebuilding its trust in public institutions after the harsh financial crisis of 2008-2010. The country was once again shaken in 2020; this time by the arrival of COVID-19 with its extreme impact on the country, including its number one sector, tourism, which came to a grinding halt in March 2020. Iceland’s swift response to battle the pandemic garnered headlines around the world for its public-private collaboration with deCODE genetics, which used their deep genetics experience to develop and roll-out screening services and extensive analysis of the virus, thereby changing the trajectory of COVID-19 and permitting an earlier re-opening than most European countries. This article shows how the public-private partnership boosted the nation’s trust in institutions and bolstered the country’s resilience in a time of crisis. [R]
74.1477 SINGH, Tripurdaman —
India is now widely considered to be drifting into the realm of “electoral autocracy,” steadily falling lower in democracy indices, with study after study seemingly confirming the erosion of the country’s democratic credentials since Narendra Modi took power in 2014. But this, this essay argues, is an ahistorical contention that rests on shaky political and constitutional foundations, and suffers from a high degree of temporal myopia. An historical perspective would suggest that Indian democracy remains within the broad continuum it has inhabited since 1950, and that there is little to indicate that this continuum is anything but intact. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1483]
74.1478 SNEGOVAYA, Maria —
Scholars often blame Russia’s recent re-autocratization on mistakes of individual leaders: Yeltsin or Putin. This essay casts doubt on such accounts. It argues instead that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced not a democratic transition but a temporary weakening of the state (incumbent capacity). This is evidenced by a lack of elite rotation and the preservation of the same type of formal and informal institutions that characterized Russia’s political system in the past. Accordingly, subsequent re-autocratization of Russian politics was just a matter of time. [R]
74.1479 SOLORIO, Israel ; TOSUN, Jale —
We assess whether different presidents have different “styles” of involving intermediary organizations such as trade unions or business associations in the policy process. Given that temporal variation in the relationship between presidents and intermediaries can be observed, to what extent can the intermediaries included in the policy process be explained by the respective president’s leadership style and/or political ideology? We concentrate on the process by which clean energy policies were formulated under three Mexican presidents between 2006 and 2022. We draw on original data collected through 18 semi-structured interviews carried out with intermediaries between January and July 2022. Our findings show that the different presidents had different policy styles and therefore varied in how they included climate intermediaries in the policy process. This finding has important implications for research on policy styles as well as climate intermediation. Regarding policy styles the results presented call for theorizing of the dynamics observed. As concerns climate intermediaries the corresponding literature is invited to pay more attention to the political context in which they operate. [R]
74.1480 SORELLE, Mallory E. —
Consumer credit is a crucial source of financial support for most Americans — part of what scholars dub the “credit-welfare state.” Yet, borrowers have been reluctant to take political action to demand better consumer financial protection, even as subprime lending proliferates. This paper articulates a broad theory of regulatory feedback effects, proposing specific mechanisms through which regulatory policy-making shapes consumers’ politics. Drawing on the case of consumer financial protection, I argue that consumer credit regulations produce feedback effects that diminish political engagement by encouraging borrowers to blame and subsequently target market actors — including financial institutions and consumers themselves — for both systemic and individual problems with predatory lending. I analyze an original policy dataset, original survey of 1,500 borrowers, and two survey experiments to test this hypothesis. [R, abr.]
74.1481 THALER, Kai M. ; MUELLER, Lisa ; MOSINGER, Eric —
State violence against protests often backfires, spurring greater mobilization and demands for police reform. Yet major reforms rarely materialize. How can activists frame contentious events to build support for their policy goals? We examine whether historical frames that draw parallels between past and present episodes of state violence make people more likely to support police reforms. We test our theory with a survey experiment in Chile 15 months after security forces cracked down on protesters in 2019, randomizing whether text and visual primes about recent repression were juxtaposed against primes about repression under Chile’s 1973–90 military dictatorship. We found that left-leaning and older respondents who experienced the dictatorship firsthand were more responsive to historical frames than right-leaning and younger respondents. Results suggest that historical framing can boost support for police reform but must be carefully targeted. [R]
74.1482 THORSON, Emily ; ABDELAATY, Lamis —
This letter explores the prevalence of misperceptions about refugee policy and tests whether correcting these misperceptions changes attitudes toward refugees. Large numbers of people hold misperceptions about both the nature and effects of refugee policy. An experiment directly compares the effects of correcting misperceptions about existing refugee policy (e.g., the refugee admission process) with correcting misperceptions about the outcomes of refugee policy (e.g., the proportion of refugees in the US and the percentage who receive welfare benefits). Corrective information about existing policy substantially increases support for refugees, but corrective information about policy outcomes has no effect on attitudes. The results suggest that including descriptive information about existing US policy in media coverage of refugees could both correct misperceptions and change attitudes. [R]
74.1483 TUDOR, Maya —
India exemplifies the global democratic recession. India’s recent downgrade to a hybrid regime is a major influence on the world’s autocratization. And the modality of India’s democratic decline reveals how democracies die today: not through a dramatic coup or midnight arrests of opposition leaders, but instead, it moves through the fully legal harassment of the opposition, intimidation of media, and centralization of executive power. By equating government criticism with disloyalty to the nation, the government of Narendra Modi is diminishing the very idea that opposition is legitimate. India today is no longer the world’s largest democracy. [R] [First article of a symposium on "Is India still a democracy?". See also Abstr. 74.1007, 1370, 1477, 1489]
74.1484 UGUR-CINAR, Meral —
This article reflects on the reasons why Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) could still win in the recent 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey despite, among other daunting issues, the deep economic crisis and their unsuccessful handling of the February 2023 earthquake. The article discusses the role of state apparatus and the media under a neopatrimonial system, as well as the role of the EU, which turned Turkey into a rentier state with the refugee deals. The discussion considers whether Turkey could still be seen as a competitive authoritarian regime and points to the difficulties in determining whether regimes such as the Turkish one are competitive authoritarian or not until the election results are seen and the opposition candidates actually win. [R]
74.1485 VALLÉE-DUBOIS, Florence —
Do seniors have different public spending preferences than younger people? The literature on this topic has been limited so far to a few policies or to short periods of time, which makes it difficult to provide a comprehensive answer to this question. Using data from Canadian surveys conducted between 1987 and 2019 and covering fifteen policies, this paper shows that seniors, as compared to younger adults, are slightly more favourable to the status quo when it comes to government spending. Results also show that support for education spending decreases extensively over the life cycle, while support for environment spending decreases until middle age, then stabilizes. In contrast, support for transportation spending is more widespread in older age, while support for elderly services takes an inverted U-shape over the life cycle. These findings broaden our understanding of the influence of age on government spending preferences and allow us to reflect on the consequences of a growing senior electorate on government budgets. [R]
74.1486 VAN GANZEN, Bastiaan —
This article aims to map the political economy of top personal income tax rate setting. A much-discussed driving factor of top rate setting is the corporate tax rate: governments may prefer to limit the differential between both rates in order to prevent tax-friendly saving of labour incomes inside corporations. Recent studies have highlighted several other driving factors, including budgetary pressure, partisan politics, and societal fairness norms. I compare these and other potential determinants in the long run (1981-2018) by studying tax reforms of 226 cabinets in 19 advanced Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries using regression models. I find little evidence for the effects of economic, political, and institutional factors; instead, the main determinant of the top rate is the corporate tax rate. As corporate tax rates are still declining under competitive pressure, the recently set minimum rate of 15% will not stop tax competition from constraining progressive income taxation. [R]
74.1487 VANDENBERGHE, Maxime —
Does federalism fuel tensions in divided states? This paper addresses this question from a power-sharing angle. It provides a longitudinal analysis of the evolution of ethno-territorial conflict during five waves of federalization in a least-likely case: Belgium (1979-2018). Two original datasets on all cabinet conflicts (N = 1013; N = 328) provide an unprecedented picture of ethno-territorial conflict’s intensity, nature, and frequency (absolute/relative). All indicators forcefully contradict the paradox thesis. Conflict did not increase. If anything, there is a tentative decline. Exposing intra-segmental and segmentally mixed conflicts, this study also challenges conventional views on factors like bipolarity and the repercussions of split party systems. [R]
74.1488 VERHOEVEN, Imrat ; TONKENS, Evelien —
For more than fifteen years, frontline workers in the Netherlands have facilitated civic initiatives by practicing a ‘modest approach’ that can be seen as an example of democratic professionalism as developed by Albert Dzur. In this paper we empirically explore the understudied topic of how the implementation of this modest approach affects frontline workers. Based on a case study in Amsterdam, we find that frontline workers’ face a tension between sharing authority while retaining professional responsibility, which manifests itself as active support versus stepping back to leave the initiative to citizens, and as being present versus other daily work or private life. If frontline workers do not succeed in dealing with these tensions, democratic professionalism ceases to exist. Reflecting on this tension between sharing authority while retaining professional responsibility may help to develop a richer understanding of democratic professionalism. [R] [See Abstr. 74.496]
74.1489 VERMA, Rahul —
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s democracy has been downgraded to a “flawed democracy” and an “electoral autocracy” by democracy watchdogs. Some argue that — despite claims of deteriorating civil liberties and institutional autonomy — these measures provide and exaggerated portrayal of backsliding. Under the BJP, India’s political system has evolved from a coalition-based to a BJP-dominant system. This system has resulted in increased voter turnout but with increasingly centralized party control. Distrust has escalated, polarizing politics and prompting street protests. While some see the BJP’s rule as a form of right-wing populism, citizens express satisfaction with democracy. India’s unique context demands a fresh analytical framework to comprehend the dynamics of democratic challenges under BJP rule. As nationalist-populist leaders remake their countries’ politics to conform to their ideological worldview, the line between disagreement and dissent will remain thin. [R] [See Abstr. 74.1483]
74.1490 VERMASSEN, Daan, et al. —
Given that modern democracies face generation-transcending policy challenges, this study asks whether the interests of future generations are sufficiently taken into account in present-day parliamentary politics. Through analysis of parliamentary documents in Belgium (2010-2019), we examine whether present-day MPs make representative claims on behalf of future generations, how such claims are made and by whom. We find that MPs do formulate claims, but only to a limited extent and with little or no justification. Moreover, claims-making is driven by electoral-strategic considerations. Only those who hold prominent positions make claims for future generations and fewer claims are made in election years. [R]
74.1491 VOLINTIRU, Clara ; GHERGHINA, Sergiu —
Romania is characterized in general by poor institutional capacity and low popular trust in public institutions. In this context, it is an unlikely case for an effective stakeholder cooperation in times of crisis. However, this article shows that during the pandemic, the structural vulnerabilities in the public system led to many solutions being delivered through public and private stakeholder cooperation. The health care system engaged with community stakeholders to complement public efforts in managing the pandemic. A consistent institutional approach towards public engagement can compensate for systemic vulnerabilities and adds to societal resilience in times of crisis. [R]
74.1492 VUKOV, Visnja —
This paper analyses the political origins of diverse peripheral growth models in Europe, focusing on debt-based consumption-led growth model in Southern Europe and FDI-based export-led growth model in Central and Eastern Europe. Contrary to existing approaches that attribute this East-South divergence to their geographic position and systemic features of European monetary integration, the paper argues that these growth models stem from different national and EU-level policy responses to the challenge of core-periphery market integration. While the Southern states sought to protect domestic firms, allowing for, or even directly contributing to deindustrialisation in the face of competition with the European core economies, Central and East European states aimed to preserve their industrial legacy even at the expense of FDI-dependency. These policy responses were, in turn, shaped by distinct patterns of interaction and accommodation between segments of state elites and domestic economic groups, as well as by dramatically different EU strategies of governing integration. [R, abr.]
74.1493 WAMSLEY, Dillon —
Political economy literature has sought to explain the rapid shift from fiscal stimulus to austerity after the 2008 crisis. Influential contributions highlight the relative explanatory value of ideational or structural factors in contributing to post-crisis austerity. Drawing on Stephen Gill’s (1998) analysis of new constitutionalism and Peter Burnham’s (2001) understanding of depoliticisation, I contend that these frameworks offer a more useful lens to understand how post-2010 austerity in the US and UK was shaped by an enduring consensus on macroeconomic policy governance consolidating during the 1990s. Examining the role of fiscal mechanisms such as PAYGO in the US and the ‘Fiscal Golden Rules’ in the UK, and the operational independence conferred to central banks, I illustrate how Third Way governments institutionalised budgetary reforms and distanced macroeconomic policymaking from popular political contestation. Despite temporary lapses with this logic of fiscal restraint, as well as the rollout of historic monetary policies after 2008, I argue that these practices became deeply embedded within state institutions. [R, abr.]
74.1494 WANG Chia-chou —
Does visiting Mainland China alter Taiwanese students’ evaluation of Taiwan’s democracy? This question greatly concerns democratic supporters globally. Therefore, 477 Taiwanese young adults participating in Mainland China exchange programmes were recruited for this study. Social contact, social identity, political socialisation and rational choice theories were introduced to formulate four hypotheses. The results indicated that, among the three dimensions constituting the democracy evaluation following their exchange to Mainland China, the Taiwanese students showed increased positive evaluations in democratic support and degree of democratisation. Furthermore, positive evaluations for satisfaction with democracy decreased. The evaluation of Taiwan’s democracy, formed by aggregating these three dimensions, indicates that this index decreased in 27.54% of students, increased in 29.24% and remained unchanged in 43.22%. After visiting Mainland China, students exhibit a tendency towards ethnically identifying as Taiwanese, or have a worse impression of China, or have greater political trust towards Taiwanese officials, or show a lower preference for the strongman rule, leading to a more favourable evaluation of Taiwan’s democracy. [R]
74.1495 WANG Qiushi ; SUN Zongfeng —
In recent years, Chinese non-public foundations have grown at an unprecedented rate, but research on charitable donations to these organizations is scarce. Building on nonprofit literature and borrowing from resource dependence, neo-institutionalism and interdependence theories, we seek to disentangle the distinctive donation pattern in Chinese non-public foundations by focusing on geographic location and higher education. To test the hypotheses, we performed Tobit and IV-Tobit regression analyses on data collected from 1,490 Chinese non-public foundations for 2013. We found that those foundations located near the center of provincial capitals received significantly more domestic donations. The development of higher education institutions located in the same area as the foundation also had a positive impact on donations. The findings of this research improve our understanding about the distinctive donation patterns during a period of fast economic transition and suggest useful ways for increasing the revenues of Chinese non-public foundations. [R]
74.1496 WEI Xinyi ; PALAN, Ronen —
This article applies a new investigative technique called ‘equity mapping’ to the corporate structure of two big Chinese state-owned banks, Bank of China (BOC) and China Construction Bank (CCB), to advance our understanding of the way they use their Hong Kong subsidiaries and holding companies to support their global and domestic strategies. We show that Chinese state-owned banks typically set up a ‘sandwich’ structure of holding whereby a Hong Kong subsidiary holds a British Virgin Islands or Cayman subsidiary which, in turn, holds a publicly listed subsidiary in Hong Kong. The subsidiary holding company in Hong Kong serves as the bank’s face to the world. Indeed, these subsidiaries often control subsidiaries in mainland China, and in that way, state-owned Chinese banks operate as foreign banks on the mainland. This structure can be used to avoid taxation in different regions despite restrictive mainland financial regulations. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 74.58]
74.1497 WEIDMANN, Nils B. —
Governmental measures against the spread of the Corona virus have been met with varying levels of opposition in many countries worldwide. Existing research has claimed that some of this opposition is linked to esoteric and anthroposophical beliefs. This research note tests this in an observational study using election results from the 2021 parliamentary election in Germany and new data on the distribution of natural healers, homeopathic doctors and Steiner schools. Results show that counter to common expectations, there is no evidence that esoteric beliefs systematically lead to increased support for the established right-wing AFD. Rather, some indicators for esoteric beliefs — in particular, the presence of homeopathic doctors and Waldorf schools — are related to higher support for the new fringe party dieBasis, a single-issue party campaigning against governmental Corona measures. [R]
74.1498 XU Shuqin ; GUO Zhonghua —
With reference to the heads of departments of moral education (HDMEs) in Shanghai’s junior secondary schools, this paper explores middle leaders’ logics for leading school-organized extra-curricular activities (SEAs). This qualitative study, guided by Woulfin’s lived logic framework, found that the interviewed HDMEs actively reinterpreted the institutional logics with three logics — expressive, instrumental, and hierarchical — by manipulating policy circulation, responding to the performative accountability and micropolitics in the hierarchy, and using correlative thinking. The lived logics of leading SEAs reveal that, as heads of a marginalized department in schools, the HDMEs struggled to seek visibility by using correlative thinking, promoting the importance of their work, and aligning with more helpful senior leaders. The study responds to theories on school middle leadership and implementation logic. It could deepen our understanding of the paradoxes in China’s development and governance, especially in areas concerning both measurable performance and unmeasurable issues (e.g. ideology and sustainable development). [R]
74.1499 YANG Nareum ; YUN Ji-Whan —
This study discusses why South Korea has not always succeeded in the ‘entrepreneurial state’ approach - defined as policy efforts to move away from the old developmental state model to a new industrial system of innovation in which small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are incorporated - by focusing on the limitation of new semiconductor industrial policies of the former Moon Jae-in government (2017-2022). Conventionally, many scholars have exclusively ascribed this limitation to large businesses’ (chaebol’s) practice of in-house production. Building upon historical institutionalism and its concept of increasing returns, alternatively, we shift attention to the way the Moon government played its entrepreneurial role. We argue that, as the government sought increasing returns from the developmental state idea and institution, the likelihood of wider SME incorporation decreased. Nationalism enabled the government to control the policymaking process but made it difficult to obtain new information through policy contestation. The government depended on developmental alliance to increase policy visibility through the chaebol’s capabilities, but demands of small firms were downplayed. This study proposes to construct a more theoretical framework with which to explain how the old political economy model affects new entrepreneurial goals. [R]
74.1500 YOM, Sean L. —
Kuwait is a democratic outlier in the Middle East. In this oil-rich Muslim Arab state, the ruling Sabah monarchy claims considerable executive authority, but it also coexists with a powerful, elected parliament and wellmobilized civil society. This oft-overlooked hybrid system is rooted in liberal norms of pluralism and openness, and enables opposition blocs to advance democratic reforms and rebuff the threat of repression. A transition towards parliamentary democracy, a rarity in the Arab world, is possible. However, this will require overcoming intense cleavages within the royal family, across social groups, and between the royal autocracy and society itself. [R]
74.1501 YOO Minji —
This study aimed to discover the sphere of the everyday state by identifying images and practices related to people’s community life in Timor-Leste. This study argues that previous research on the state, including Southeast Asian states, has been built on the power-oriented Weberian notion. Instead of focusing on the centralisation of power at the national level, this study proposes to discover the sphere of the everyday state by emphasising people’s daily experiences, particularly through an analysis of welfare, which is the moral dimension of the state. Based on Timor-Leste’s life in sucos, this study shows the everyday stateness of unveiling the relationship between state images and practices in village life. This study argues that narratives on rewards for ordeals during the Indonesian occupation and elites’ vision for prosperity illustrate what people expect from the state and images of the state at the everyday level. Furthermore, this study emphasises the activities of various public agencies to meet these expectations and indicates the significant role of village councils in managing the level of expectations. [R]
74.1502 ZHENG Li ; ZHU Ling —
How does trade openness affect individuals’ social policy preferences in emerging markets? Drawing upon the theories of economic openness, risk, and social policy preference, we examine how trade openness and job sectors jointly shape preferences on social protection in China, the largest emerging market. Using the World Value Survey (WVS) Wave VI and archival macroeconomic indicators in 2012, we find that trade openness is associated with higher demands for government responsibility in social protection. We also find, compared with public-sector employees, private-sector employees exhibit lower levels of support to the role of government in social protection. The public–private divide in policy preferences, nevertheless, diminishes in regions with high levels of trade openness. This research provides new evidence to the risk-model of social policy preferences in the Chinese context. It also highlights the importance of considering the significant differences between public and private-sector employees in their social policy preferences. [R]