Increasing Risks for Armed Conflict: Climate Change,Food and Water Insecurity,and Forced Displacement

Abstract

The interrelated factors of climate change, decreased access to freshwater, and forced displacement are heightening the risk of armed conflict. Higher temperatures and extremes of precipitation are contributing to food and water insecurity, forced displacement, and sociopolitical tensions. Health professionals can help to address these problems through education, advocacy, and other activities that aim to mitigate and adapt to climate change and minimize the risk of armed conflict.

Keywords

war armed conflict climate change access to water forced displacement

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Levy

Sidel

, eds. War and Public Health. 2nd ed. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2008.

United Nations. Sustainable Development Goals. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300. Accessed January 23, 2019.

Goodman

PS.

The post-World War II order is under assault from the powers that built it. The New York Times. March 26, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/business/nato-european-union.html. Accessed January 23, 2019.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. SIPRI Yearbook 2018: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press; 2018.

Haberman

‘This is not a drill’: The threat of nuclear annihilation. The New York Times. May 13, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/13/us/nuclear-threat-retro-report.html. Accessed January 23, 2019.

Schleussner

Donges

Doner

Schellnhuber

HJ.

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries.

Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2016; 113(33):9216–9221.

Watts

Amann

Ayeb-Karlsson

, et al. Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health. Lancet. 2018; 391(10120):581–630.

U.S. Global Change Research Program. Fourth National Climate Assessment. Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program; 2018.

Levy

Patz

, eds. Climate Change and Public Health. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2015.

10.

Luber

Lemery

Global Climate Change and Human Health: From Science to Practice. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass; 2015.

11.

Patz

Frumkin

Holloway

Vimont

Haines

Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.

JAMA. 2014; 312(15):1565–1580.

12.

Slaymaker

Bain

Access to drinking water around the world—in five infographics. The Guardian. March 17, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/mar/17/access-to-drinking-water-world-six-infographics. Accessed January 23, 2019.

13.

UNHCR: The UN Refugee Agency. Figures at a Glance. https://www.unhcr.org/figures-at-a-glance.html. Accessed January 23, 2019.

14.

Stocker

Qin

Plattner

G-K

, et al., eds. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 2013. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/. Accessed January 23, 2019.

15.

Basu

Disorders related to heat waves. In: Levy

Patz

, eds. Climate Change and Public Health. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2015:87–103.

16.

Myers

Smith

Guth

, et al. Climate change and global food systems: potential impacts on food security and undernutrition. Annu Rev Public Health. 2017; 38:259–277.

17.

Field

Barros

Dokken

, et al., eds. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/. Accessed January 23, 2019.

18.

Schwartz

Greenland’s melting ice nears a ‘tipping point,’ scientists say. The New York Times. January 21, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/21/climate/greenland-ice.html. Accessed January 23, 2019.

19.

Pierre-Louis

Antarctica is melting three times as fast as a decade ago. The New York Times. June 13, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/climate/antarctica-ice-melting-faster.html. Accessed January 23, 2019.

20.

Parsons

Human Thermal Environments: The Effects of Hot, Moderate and Cold Temperatures on Human Health, Comfort and Performance. 3rd ed. London, England: Taylor & Francis; 2014.

21.

Kjellstrom

Butler

Lucas

Bonita

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

Int J Public Health. 2010; 55:97–103.

22.

Kjellstrom

Briggs

Freyberg

Lemke

Otto

Hyatt

Heat, human performance, and occupational health: a key issue for the assessment of global climate change impacts.

Annu Rev Public Health. 2016; 37:97–112.

23.

Kinney

Ito

Weinberger

Sheffield

PE.

Respiratory and allergic disorders. In: Levy

Patz

, eds. Climate Change and Public Health. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2015:105–127.

24.

Campbell-Lendrum

Manga

Bagayoko

Sommerfeld

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2015; 370(1665):pii:20130552.

25.

Walker

JT.

The influence of climate change on waterborne disease and Legionella: a review. Perspect Public Health. 2018; 138(5):292–286.

26.

Hellberg

Chu

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: a review.

Crit Rev Microbiol. 2016; 42(4):548–572.

27.

Hashim

Climate change, extreme weather events, and human health implications in the Asia Pacific region.

Asia Pac J Public Health. 2016; 28(2 Suppl):8S–14S.

28.

Doherty

TJ.

Mental health impacts. In: Levy

Patz

, eds. Climate Change and Public Health. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2015:195–214.

29.

Porter

Xie

Challinor

, et al. Food security and food production systems. In Field

Barros

Dokken

, et al, eds. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press; 2014:485–533.

30.

Phalkey

Aranda-Jan

Marx

Höfle

Sauerborn

Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2015; 112(33):E4522–E4529.

31.

Fleming

Climate Change Could Become the Biggest Driver of Displacement: UNHCR Chief. Geneva, Switzerland: UNHCR, The UN Refugee Agency; 2009. https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/latest/2009/12/4b2910239/climate-change-become-biggest-driver-displacement-unhcr-chief.html. Accessed January 23, 2019.

32.

Swing

WL.

Foreword. In: IOM International Organization for Migration. Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration; 2009.

33.

Fountain

Solomon

BC.

Glaciers are retreating. Millions rely on their water. The New York Times. January 15, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/15/climate/melting-glaciers-globally.html. Accessed January 23, 2019.

34.

Levy

Sidel

Patz

JA.

Climate change and collective violence.

Annu Rev Public Health. 2017; 38:241–257.

35.

Levy

Sidel

VW.

Collective violence caused by climate change and how it threatens health and human rights. Health Hum Rights. 2014; 16(1):1–9.

36.

Hsiang

Burke

Miguel

Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict.

Science. 2013; 341(6151):1235367.

37.

Hsiang

Burke

Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?

Clim Chang. 2014; 123(1):39–55.

38.

Bohannon

Study links climate change and violence, battle ensues.

Science. 2013; 341:444–445.

39.

Hsiang

Burke

, Miguel. Supplementary materials for quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 2013. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2013/07/31/science.1235367.dc1/hsiang.sm.pdf. Accessed April 8, 2019.

40.

Gleick

PH.

Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria.

Weather Clim Soc. 2014; 6:331–340.

41.

Levy

Sidel

VW.

Editorial: water rights and water fights: preventing and resolving conflicts before they boil over.

Am J Public Health. 2011; 101(5):778–780.

42.

Wolf

Natharius

Danielson

Ward

Pender

JK.

International river basins of the world.

Int J Water Resour Dev. 1999; 15(4):387–427.

43.

United Nations. Water Scarcity. http://www.unwater.org/water-facts/scarcity/. Accessed January 23, 2019.

44.

Gleick

PH.

Water and conflict: fresh water resources and international security.

Int Secur. 1993; 18(1):79–112.

45.

Gleick

Heberger

Water conflict chronology. In Gleick

, ed. The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources . Vol. 8. Washington, DC: Island Press: 2014;173–208.

46.

Gleick

PH.

The Water Conflict Chronology. https://www.worldwater.org/water-conflict/. Accessed January 23, 2019.

47.

Gleick

PH.

The World’s Water: The Biennel Report on Freshwater Resources, 1998–1999. Washington, DC: Island Press; 1998:107.

48.

Levy

BS.

Water and armed conflict

. In: Selendy

JMH

, ed. Water and Sanitation-Related Diseases and the Changing Environment: Challenges, Interventions, and Preventive Measures. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc; 2019:53–57.

49.

Levy

Patz

JA.

Climate change, human rights, and social justice.

Ann Glob Health. 2015; 81(3):310–322.

50.

Patz

Gibbs

Foley

Rogers

Smith

KR.

Climate change and global health: quantifying a growing ethical crisis. EcoHealth. 2007; 4:397–405.

51.

Haines

Ebi

The imperative for climate action to protect health.

New Engl J Med. 2019; 380(3):263–273.

52.

Solomon

LaRocque

RC.

Climate change—a health emergency.

New Engl J Med. 2019; 380(3):209–211.