Commentators frequently observe that the pace of social change accelerated during the 20th century. Processes of industrialization, demographic change, and human-induced environmental change all occurred more rapidly at the end of the century than they did at the beginning. While claims about accelerating social change abound, few studies attempt to explain it. This article tries to do so through a quantitative analysis of the changing pace of fertility declines over the past two centuries. It outlines two possible explanations for the acceleration: a social integration thesis which emphasizes our growing interconnectivity; and a ‘latecomer effect’ which attributes the accelerated processes to political efforts by elites in poorer countries who want to ‘catch up’ with more affluent countries. An empirical analysis of fertility declines provides support for both explanations. Increased social integration through the spread of common languages may have facilitated the transmission of new norms about fertility, and the creation of elite initiated family planning programs after the Second World War expanded access to contraceptives.!
Amsden, A. (1989) Asia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization. New York: Oxford University Press .
2.
Barrett, D. and Frank, D.J. (1999) ‘Population Control for National Development: From World Discourse to National Policies’, in J. Boli and G. Thomas (eds) Constructing World Culture: International Nongovernmental Organizations since 1875, pp. 198-221. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press .
3.
Barsby, S.L. (1969) ‘Economic Backwardness and the Characteristics of Development’ , Journal of Economic History29(3): 449-472 .
4.
Bongaarts, J. and Watkins, S.C. (1996) ‘Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions’ , Population and Development Review22(4): 639-682 .
5.
Brockerhoff, M. (1999) ‘Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Projections and Predictions’ , Population and Development Review25(4): 757-778 .
6.
Brown, L.A. (1981) Innovation Diffusion: A New Perspective. London and New York: Methuen .
7.
Chambers, R. (1997) Whose Reality Counts: Putting the Last First. London: Intermediate Technology Publications .
8.
Cipolla, C.M. (1969) Literacy and Development in the West. Baltimore, MD: Penguin Books .
9.
Coale, A.J. and Watkins, S.C. (eds) (1986) The Decline in Fertility in Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press .
10.
Condran, G. and Crimmins-Gardner, E. (1978) ‘Public Health Measures and Mortality in U.S. Cities in the Late Nineteenth Century’ , Human Ecology6(1): 27-54 .
11.
Crenshaw, E.M. , Christenson, M. and Oakley, D.R. (2000) ‘Demographic Transition in Ecological Focus’ , American Sociological Review65(3): 371-391 .
12.
Critchfield, R. (1994) The Villagers, Changed Values, Altered Lives: The Closing of the Rural-Urban Gap. New York: Doubleday .
13.
Davis, K. (1963) ‘The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History’ , Population Index29: 345-365 .
14.
Dore, R. (1987) Taking Japan Seriously: A Confucian Perspective on Leading Economic Issues. London: Athlone Press .
15.
Dore, R. (1990) ‘Reflections on Cultural and Social Change’, in G. Gereffi and D. Wyman (eds) Manufacturing Miracles: Paths of Industrialization in Latin America and East Asia, pp. 353-367. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press .
16.
Freese, L. (1997) Evolutionary Connections. Supplement, Part A. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press .
17.
Gerschenkron, A. (1962) Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press .
18.
Gerschenkron, A. (1970) Europe in the Russian Mirror: Four Lectures in Economic History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press .
19.
Gregory, P.R. (1974) ‘Some Empirical Comments on the Theory of Relative Backwardness: The Russian Case’ , Economic Development and Cultural Change22(4): 654-665 .
20.
Harvey, D. (1989) The Condition of Postmodernity: An Enquiry into the Origins of Culture Change. Oxford: Basil Blackwell .
21.
Hirschman, A.O. (1981) Essays in Trespassing: Economics to Politics and Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press .
22.
Kates, R.W. (1995) ‘Labnotes from the Jeremiah Experiment: Hope for a Sustainable Transition’ , Annals of the Association of American Geographers85(4): 623-640 .
23.
Kirk, D. (1971) ‘A New Demographic Transition’, in National Academy of Sciences (ed.) Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications. Vol. II, pp. 123-147. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press .
24.
Knodel, J. and van de Walle, E. (1979) ‘Lessons from the Past: Policy Implications of Historical Fertility Studies’ , Population and Development Review5(2): 217-245 .
25.
Luke, T. and O’Tuathail, G. (1998) ‘Global Flowmations, Local Fundamentalisms, and Fast Geopolitics: America in an Accelerating World Order’, in A. Herod , G. O’Tuathail and S. Roberts (eds) An Unruly World: Globalization, Governance, and Geography, pp. 72-94. New York: Routledge .
26.
McGee, T.G. (1991) ‘The Emergence of Desakota Regions in Asia: Expanding a Hypothesis’, in N. Ginsburg , B. Koppel and T.G. McGee (eds) The Extended Metropolis: Settlement Transition in Asia, pp. 3-25. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press .
27.
McMichael, P. (1996) Development and Social Change: A Global Perspective. Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press .
28.
Merton, R.K. (1936) ‘The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action’ , American Sociological Review1(6): 894-904 .
29.
Meyer, J. , Boli, J. , Thomas, G. and Ramirez, F. (1997) ‘World Society and the Nation State’ , American Journal of Sociology103: 144-181 .
30.
Mol, A. and Sonnenfeld, D. (2000) Ecological Modernization around the World. London: Frank Cass .
31.
National Research Council (1999) Our Common Journey: A Transition toward Sustainability. Washington, DC: National Academy Press .
32.
National Research Council (2000) Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population. Washington, DC: National Academy Press .
33.
Palloni, A. (1994) ‘The Relationship between Population and Deforestation: Methods for Drawing Causal Inferences from Macro and Micro Studies’, in L. Arizpe , M.P. Stone and D. Major (eds) Population and Environment: Rethinking the Debate, pp. 125-165. Boulder, CO: Westview .
34.
Patel, S. (1962) ‘Rates of Industrial Growth in the Last Century, 1860-1955’ , Economic Development and Cultural Change10: 316-330 .
35.
Porter, P. and Sheppard, E. (1998) A World of Difference: Society, Nature, and Development. New York: Guilford Press .
36.
Pritchett, L. (1994) ‘Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policy’ , Population and Development Review20(1): 1-43 .
37.
Roberts, B. (1994) ‘Urbanization and the Environment in Developing Countries: Latin America in Comparative Perspective’, in L. Arizpe , M.P. Stone and D.C. Major (eds) Population and Environment: Rethinking the Debate, pp. 303-336. Boulder, CO: Westview Press .
38.
Roe, E. (1995) ‘Except Africa: Postscript to a Special Section on Development Narratives’ , World Development23(6): 1065-1069 .
39.
Rogers, E.M. and Shoemaker, F.F. (1971) Communication of Innovations: A Cross-cultural Approach. New York: Free Press .
40.
Ross, J.A. and Mauldin, W.P. (1994) ‘Measuring the Effort Levels of Family Planning Programmes’ , World Health Statistics Quarterly47(1): 16-25 .
41.
Ross, J.A. and Mauldin, W.P. (1996) ‘Family Planning Programs: Efforts and Results, 1972-1994’ , Studies in Family Planning27(3): 137-147 .
42.
Schofield, R. , Reher, D. and Bideau, A. (eds) (1991) The Decline of Mortality in Europe. Oxford: Clarendon Press .
43.
Stein, J. (2001) ‘Reflections on Time, Time-Space Compression, and Technology in the 19th Century’, in J. May and N. Thrift (eds) Timespace: Geographies of Temporality, pp. 106-119. London and New York: Routledge .
44.
Strang, D. and Meyer, J.W. (1994) ‘Institutional Conditions for Diffusion’, in W.R. Scott and J.W. Meyer (eds) Institutional Environments and Organizations, pp. 100-112. Thousands Oaks, CA: Sage .
45.
United Nations (2003) Human Development Report, 2003. New York: Oxford University Press .
46.
Vogel, E. (1991) The Four Little Dragons: The Spread of Industrialization in East Asia. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press .
47.
Watkins, S.C. (1987) ‘The Fertility Transition: Europe and the Third World Compared’ , Sociological Forum2(4): 645-673 .
48.
Weiss, L. and Hobson, J. (1995) States and Economic Development: A Comparative Historical Analysis. Cambridge: Polity Press .
