Power transition in process: Explaining the dominant power's failures to prevent the rise of a challenger

Abstract

Power transition theory often overlooks why, despite its dominance, an established power may fail to prevent the emergence of a challenger. This article addresses this gap by incorporating analysis of the politics of threat assessment. It presents three explanations: (1) It is difficult for an established power to accurately identify a potential challenger, particularly considering that the rising power may strategically accommodate the more dominant state to reduce early animosity; (2) Due to the fallacy of dominance, the established power may fail to effectively manage incentives and attain normative acceptability among secondary states; (3) Under certain circumstances, a third country's presence can alleviate rivalry and reduce hostility from the established power.