Navigating a World Without Leadership? Canada and its Allies in an era of Turbulence and Geopolitical Rivalry

For Canada, perhaps more than for any other country of the West, foreign policy and international engagement have long been predicated upon the strength and reliability of US global leadership. What if the West can no longer rely confidently on that leadership? Discussion of the decline of Pax Americana and its potential impact is not new, but the capacity and willingness of the US to maintain its role as a global hegemonic leader today is under unprecedented pressure, both as a result of global transformations and domestic political pressures. The rise of China as a competing power centre, the emergence of the global South, and the renewed imperial aspirations of Russia are all profoundly reshaping the international environment. Simultaneously, the US's weakening commitment to its leadership role is also changing the world in fundamental ways. In this context, how can middle powers like Canada and its allies contribute to fostering global security, addressing regional security crises, and promoting democratic institutions and values and a rules-based world market economy?

In every aspect of its domestic, foreign, economic, and security policies, Canada's fate largely depends on its relations with the US. Further, its capacity to exert influence on global issues also depends largely on its relationship with the world's foremost power. The same can be said, in various ways and different degrees, for all other countries of the West, who must all rethink their own foreign policies and global engagement strategies in a world where US leadership can no longer be taken for granted.

How can US allies navigate a world without American leadership? This is the question that participants in the conference that led to this symposium were invited to address from the point of view of Canada as well as other advanced democracies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Indeed, like the proverbial canary in a coal mine, Canada is a good starting point for reflection on the global impacts of declining or vanishing US leadership. Not only is Canada itself a part of these two geopolitical axes, but it is also more directly and more deeply affected by whatever the US does than perhaps any other country.

The conference on which this symposium is based was convened by the Canada Program, which is part of Harvard University's Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. The aim of the program is to explore how the Canadian experience can inform a broader understanding of international issues. Conference participants were asked to discuss what the prospects of a world with declining or vanishing US leadership means for Canada and its allies, how Canada's case compares with those of other countries, and how we can draw lessons from these experiences.

To set the tone of the conference, we asked three senior Canadian government officials—both active and recently retired—to provide their perspectives on how countries like Canada can manage to make a difference as the world undergoes such profound changes.

From his vantage point as a privileged observer of the crisis of multilateralism, Bob Rae reminds us of this inescapable fact: the world is in Canada, as Canada is in the world. In the face of mounting global challenges, Canadians must take their military obligations more seriously, while remaining engaged in trade, diplomacy, and development. Canada cannot withdraw from the world and free-ride under the American umbrella because, as history has taught us, disengagement and retreat only serve to create a vacuum that others with darker motives will hurry to fill. The world needs more, not less, multilateralism. International institutions must reform to confront global challenges and cascading crises. Canada can help, but talk is not enough. Action, commitment, and resources must follow.

For David Morrison, the new international environment is increasingly governed by power dynamics, which makes it unpredictable and hostile. As China and Russia assert themselves and the global map tilts to the South, the world risks becoming more fragmented and less prosperous for all. To brace for this change, Morrison claims, Canada has adopted a pragmatic approach to diplomacy that seeks to work toward common objectives with all good-faith partners, allies or not. Canada is also investing resources, not only on defence capabilities but on climate action and the modernization of Global Affairs Canada. None of this matters, he concludes, unless Canada gets its relations with the US right.

Kerry Buck argues that the fraying role of the US in the global architecture will inevitably make it harder for Canada to navigate internationally. While Canada's foreign policy is more entangled with the US than that of other allies, in a world where US leadership and reliability are unpredictable, Canada must develop greater strategic sovereignty. Calling for a long overdue review of Canadian foreign policy, she identifies the key questions that must be debated, most of which relate to the challenges of dealing with a potentially unreliable, inward-looking, and less globally engaged US.

In the second section of this symposium, three papers address the challenges of navigating a world without US leadership from the points of view, respectively, of Canada, Europe, and Asia-Pacific allies. Kim Richard Nossal opens the discussion by pointing towards the “elephant in the room”: the distinct possibility that Americans might choose to return Donald Trump to the White House and instate an even more radical version of his “America First” agenda as the guiding principle of US foreign policy. This time, Canadians may not have the option to manage the day-to-day mood changes of their unpredictable partner while counting on strong institutional guardrails to keep US foreign policy on track, as they did during the first Trump mandate. Indeed, he argues, the “long shadow of America First” may permeate US policy for quite some time, no matter who manages to win in November.

In that context, is Canada ready for the turbulent years that lie ahead? According to Thomas Juneau, the answer is a resounding “no.” The key problem, he contends, is not that Canadian foreign policymakers are unable to assess or understand the momentous changes that are already in play. The problem is that the country does not have the resources, both material and human, to put into effect the policies that are urgently called upon by the emerging international context.

In Europe, the problem of vanishing US leadership takes on an additional dimension, as Kathryn Stoner notes, as the continent must contend with the re-emergence of Russia as “an alternative pole of power intrinsically hostile to liberal democracy.” For European democracies, the challenge of compensating for the weakening US commitment to the Atlantic alliance is compounded by the rise of conservative nationalist forces that may facilitate the expansion of Russian influence.

With this increasing pressure from the east, Patrick Holdich writes, governments and foreign policy establishments across Europe and in the UK are actively rethinking the nature and extent of their international engagements. He warns, however, of a possible overreaction to the current America First moment in US foreign policy. In his view, the waning of US leadership in the Euro-Atlantic region may come to pass, but if Europeans themselves respond by turning inwards, the results would be just as problematic.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the problems of a world without US leadership come with an extra layer of complexity, as US allies have to walk on what Yves Tiberghien calls a “dangerous geopolitical tightrope.” Middle powers caught in the increasingly tense and risky global rivalry between the US and China are taking innovative steps to adjust to an unprecedented cocktail of disruptive changes. In Tiberghien's view, Canada cannot remain on the sideline; indeed, it has a great deal to learn from the experiences of its partners who “act as rule-makers or stabilizers, rather than chaos-takers.”

One of the areas in which Canada can help to fill the void of US global leadership and make a distinct contribution in sustaining a rules-based order is trade. As Christina Davis argues, Canada and Japan are key partners in finding institutional solutions to the challenges of China's economic dominance. Where US leadership cannot be taken for granted, past experience shows that middle powers can make a difference if they pursue more moderate, pragmatic goals as building blocks towards more encompassing institutional solutions.

This symposium only addresses some of the issues that arise from actual or potential changes in how the US exerts its global leadership role. Most importantly, it shows that Canada and its allies have much to learn as they individually and collectively confront these changes. Of course, the countries and regions discussed here are not the only ones that need to find ways to navigate the world without US leadership. Moreover, from migrations and development to human rights and climate change, more needs to be understood about how this emerging international context will put global cooperation to the test. To pass that test in a world where the future leadership of the US is increasingly questioned and contested, and where even its continuing existence as a stable liberal democracy cannot entirely be taken for granted, scholars and practitioners of international affairs must answer the call for innovative ideas.

The Conference

This symposium assembles contributions from participants in a conference held at Harvard University on 25 and 26 April 2024, under the auspices of the Canada Program of Harvard's Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.

The conference was organized and chaired by Antonia Maioni (McGill University), the 2023–24 William Lyon Mackenzie King Visiting Professor of Canadian Studies at Harvard, with the help of Robert Greenhill (Global Canada), Pierre Martin (Université de Montréal), Jennifer Welsh (McGill), Joe Young (Georgetown University), and Marie-Joëlle Zahar (Université de Montréal).

The organizers wish to acknowledge support from the WCFIA, its director, Melani Cammett, and its executive director, Erin Goodman, as well as the financial support from the Canada Program and the indispensable help of its administrator, Helen Clayton. Thanks are also due to participants who did not take part in this symposium but were instrumental to the success of the conference: Spyros Economides, of the London School of Economics, Jeffry Frieden, Peter Hall, Joshua Kertzer, and Rana Mitter, of Harvard University.