Is Nagorno-Karabakh no longer a frozen conflict zone after the 2020 war?

Abstract

The term “frozen conflict,” which is used to describe identity-based conflicts in former Soviet republics, characterizes a situation whereby neither war nor peace exists between the conflicting parties. The most important of these conflict areas is Nagorno-Karabakh, located in the South Caucasus. As the conflict in the 1990s could not be resolved through negotiations, war broke out again in September 2020. Under the ceasefire protocol signed in November 2020 following the war, Azerbaijan has largely succeeded in liberating its occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh. As it is claimed that the occupied territories of Azerbaijan have been completely liberated, this situation raises the question of whether the problem is no longer a frozen conflict. However, when the protocol is considered in relation to the concept's definition, we see that the problem remains a frozen conflict.