The curious tale of the dog that did not bark: Explaining Canada’s non-acquisition of an independent nuclear arsenal,1945–1957

Abstract

Canada’s non-acquisition of nuclear weapons in the immediate postwar period represents an important puzzle. Acquisition of an independent nuclear arsenal presented Canada with an unprecedented opportunity to ameliorate its objective insecurity vis-à-vis US power. Many theories suggest that when combined with Canada’s postwar capabilities, this insecurity ought to have pushed Canada toward acquisition. I argue that Canada’s non-acquisition of nuclear weapons can only be accounted for by an explanation that recognizes the importance of trust. To do so, I develop a conceptual framework for understanding trust in international politics. Drawing on research from psychology, economics, and even neurology, I develop a model that shows how narratives like liberalism can render trusting behaviour reasonable for agents, and how five mechanisms can generate the conditions required for trust to obtain. By applying this model to the Canada–US relationship I provide an explanation for Canada’s non-acquisition that is superior to existing accounts.