The author, using two new data sets covering UAW contract outcomes in a wide range of industries, estimates the degree to which the union's target settlement with a Big Three automaker was followed in subsequent settlements in the same bargaining round over the years 1955–79 and 1987–90. Using several different specifications and examining both wage levels and percent wage increases, he finds that target settlements had large, statistically significant spillover effects in all years, although the effects were considerably smaller in 1987–90 than in 1955–79. Bargaining unit size and industry had important influences on pattern-following in all years. Firm-specific financial health indicators had little influence on pattern-following in the earlier period, but an important influence in 1987–90.
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