Reactions to the Draft Lottery: A Test of Conflict Theory

Abstract

A set of predictions from the conflict theory of decision making with regard to the effects of a threat to behavioral freedom were tested. The first selective service draft lottery, drawn December 1969, in which young men with low numbers were threatened with the draft provided a vehicle for the study. Attitudes of 84 Harvard seniors toward major draft-exampt and draft-vulnerable post graduation career alternatives were measured five days before the lottery and either one day or 10 days after. Conflict theory predicted that after the lottery men with low draft numbers would (a) show a decrease in attraction toward draft vulnerable alternatives (job, graduate school, travel) because they now produced threat of the draft and (b) show an increase in attraction toward draft-exempt alternatives because they now represented a means of avoiding the draft. The results provided support for the conflict theory predictions, men with low numbers showing a decrease in attraction toward the risky, non-draft exempt alternatives and an increase in attraction toward safe, draft-exempt alternatives. Support was also obtained for other conflict theory predictions regarding attitude changes toward non-exempt activities among men with high lottery numbers. The findings indicate that following on an event that alters the value of a set of career alternatives, changes in attraction occur that are functional for a decision maker who is confronted with a choice between a desirable but risky set of alternatives, and a less desirable but safe set of alternatives. Alternate predictions and explanations for the data that could be made by dissonance theory and reactance theory were examined and possible points of reconcilliation suggested.

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