Determining Flight Task Proficiency of Students: A Mathematical Decision Aid

Abstract

Accurate appraisal of student performance during and after training is important for the proper functioning of the training system and realization of training goals. Training systems-and particularly flight training programs-rely heavily on expert assessors′ determination of student proficiency. Research is needed that will lead to improvements in the reliability and accuracy of these assessments. Recent research in decision making suggests that errors are frequently introduced because of the limited capabilities of people to integrate information and reach accurate conclusions. Mathematical decision aids appear to be helpful in reducing these errors. A decision aid using Wald's binomial probability ratio test and the sequential examination of student task performances was adapted to a training application. The decision aid required significantly less task trial information and predicted subsequent task performance more accurately than did expert assessors using the current assessment method. When students performed inconsistently and below the required flight task standards, instructors were more willing to declare proficiency than was the decision aid. This finding was especially apparent on the more difficult flight tasks.