Human Estimates of Randomly Perturbed Functional Values 1 2

Abstract

The ability to estimate values of a function of 2 independent variables was studied. Numbers in a matrix were first estimated on the basis of past observations; then different subjects estimated the heights of rods which were to occupy positions in the same matrix. In each condition subjects were given feedback information which deviated from the true functional values becuase of “noise” or random error in the abservations. The visual effect of the rods presentation enhanced estimation performance only at the highest noise levels and then only to a small degree. Subjects showed a decreasing but persistent ability to estimate, and this was linearly related to the standard deviation of the perturbing noise. The variance of subjects' guesses generally increased with the variance of the perturbed inputs. Subjects' behaviors were compared with that of a simple scanning and average-taking estimator.

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