Estimation of Continuous Subjective Probability Distributions in a Sequential Decision Task

Abstract

A Range Betting Method (RBM) for measuring continuous subjective probability distributions (SPD) is tested in a computer-controlled sequential decision task. The decision makers are asked occasionally to place a wager upon the range of an unknown value of P, 0 ≤ P ≤ 1, generated by a computer. In addition, the decision makers predict the exact value of P, and then estimate the value of P after obtaining partial information about its value. The decision makers' estimates of the range boundaries are compared both to predicted values by the RBM and to predicted values by a confidence limits' model. In both comparisons the results indicate a regression effect and a block-to-block tracking behavior. Attempts to compare two independent measures of the same SPD are unsuccessful.

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