Group Decision Making under Conditions of Realistic Complexity

Abstract

Is it possible, through laboratory control of a realistic and complex environment; that classes of decision situations can be objectively defined and designed, and can these situations evoke consistent and predictable patterns of search and decision resolution? This paper describes the experimental strategy undertaken to answer this question. The command staff in the SAGE Air Defense system was seelcted as a reference system for simulation. SAGE documents were flow-charted to identify rule-following situations and decision situations proper. Air defense decision situations were presented to subjects in the simulated environment. Four three-man teams, extensively pretrained, performed as battle staff. Transcriptions of verbalized responses—intracrew interactions and “thinking out loud”—constituted the basic data for analyzing resolution behavior. Preliminary results indicated that experimental control of a complex environment is a feasible means of creating objectively defined decision situations.