Analyzing Decision Logs to Understand Decision Making in Serious Crime Investigations

Abstract

Objective

To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection.

Background

Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments.

Method

A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives.

Results

Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers’ decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation.

Conclusion

The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives.

Application

Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.