Amid escalating trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts and climate-induced disruptions, global food systems face mounting instability. Within this evolving landscape, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have emerged as a powerful and strategic trade tool, supplementing traditional tariffs in the Trump’s tariff era and influencing global food access. This article quantifies the impact of two prominent NTMs on the agricultural exports of low-middle-income countries using a gravity model to examine the role of trade policy in food security. While climate shocks, conflicts and energy prices are recognised as broader determinants, this study isolates NTMs to emphasise their regulatory implications for trade governance. The results, estimated using feasible generalised least squares, show that SPS notifications reduce exports by 0.3%, while technical barriers to trade measures increase trade by 0.8%. Importantly, within free trade agreements (FTAs), NTMs can facilitate safer and more predictable trade. This article contributes to the literature by linking food security, NTMs and FTAs within an evolving global trade regime.
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