National Defence Under Alternative Trade Policy Regimes: Theory and Evidence from Developing Countries

Abstract

Defence mechanism for any nation is the way through which internal as well as external geo-political condition can be stabilised. Moreover, defence sector can also be treated as one of the most potential sectors regarding financial transactions and the relevance of it is valid both in autarky and in the regime of international trade. Using Granger Causality for a panel of 27 developing countries across Asian and South American continents, we have found that different trade measures are playing major role in the way of functioning of national defence. For further analytical purpose and also to select the most effective trade policy regime among the alternatives, we have adopted a trade theoretic framework. In this regard, we have used a four-sector general equilibrium trade model with special emphasis on defence as well as R&D to defence to illustrate the impact of trade liberalisation on defence system. From such setup and by using bootstrap policy simulation we have found that trade liberalisation in the form foreign direct investment (specific to the R&D to defence) as the most effective trade regime to claim gains from trade in the presence of defence dualism for any small open developing economy. Such comparative statics is critical from the policy perspective. Policymakers should be cautious before defence industry liberalisation.

JEL Codes: H56, C33, F11, F14, F21, D58