It is proposed that the seemingly contradictory predictions of routine activity theory and the negative affect escape (NAE) model of aggression can be reconciled by viewing inclement weather (particularly extreme heat and cold) as a factor that reduces social contact by leading individuals to avoid outdoor settings. This proposal was evaluated by combining previously published data on assaults with unpublished data on complaints about disorderly conduct, which reflect the less savory aspects of social contact. Moderator-variable time-series analyses of data from Minneapolis, Minnesota, covering a 2-year period, indicated that the inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and assault was reduced, and temperature’s interaction with seasons vanished, following statistical control for complaints about disorderly conduct.
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