Abstract
The Quarterly Profile Examination (QPE) is produced by a computer-assisted test construction system designed for the longitudinal measurement of the acquisition and retention of knowledge of the medical sciences. QPE scores from two graduating classes were used to determine the shrinkage in predictive validity when using the QPE to predict scores on a national licensure examination, National Board of Medical Examiners Part I (NBME). Three prediction models were cross-validated to assess the validity of the QPE. The resulting significant correlations between the QPE scores and the NBME scores suggest that the QPE is a valid measure of knowledge obtained during the course of medical school, as well as a useful predictor of performance on the national licensure examination. The cross-validation analysis indicated the prediction formulas to be stable across time.
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