Discriminant Analysis for Prediction of College Graduation

Abstract

Data from readily available admission applications were obtained for first-time entering freshmen and transfer students who initially had enrolled at the University of Northern Colorado during the fall quarter 1970. These data were used to predict membership into a class of students who (a) were graduated by the end of the traditional 4-year college career, (b) were still enrolled after the 4-year period, (c) were not enrolled the quarter following academic probation or suspension, or (d) left the university while in good academic standing. This study attempted to answer the following questions: (a) Could discriminant functions be developed which would allow for the correct classification of a student into one of the four categories of interest? (b) Which ones of the variables were the best discriminators between the groups? and (c) How efficient were the discriminant functions in this classification procedure? Results indicated that discriminant functions could be developed which accurately place 33% to 39% of the first-time entering students. The variables which were significant in the prediction differed for female freshmen, male freshmen, male transfers, and female transfers.