Refining the Risk Concept: Decision Context as a Factor Mediating the Relation Between Risk and Program Effectiveness

Abstract

In meta-analyses of the rehabilitation literature, reoffending risk has been identified as a primary variable influencing program effectiveness. However, it is by no means clear to practitioners how this broad finding ought to be interpreted and what priority risk ought to be given among the range of considerations facing decision makers located at different points in the criminal justice system. This article uses data from a national random sample of New Zealand offenders to test the utility of the risk principle. The decision context chosen for this evaluation is the allocation of prisoners to programs at the point of release from custody. Findings indicate that while risk is closely associated with patterns of reoffending, other context-specific variables, such as the timing of release from custody, appear to interact with or mediate the effects of risk. Implications for practitioners wishing to utilize findings from the research literature are discussed.