Client Management Classification and Prediction of Probation Outcome

Abstract

This article compares the predictive accuracy of a traditional, objective probation risk assessment instrument with the considerably more subjective, interview-based Client Management Classification (CMC) System, a tool with no previously noted applications to the prediction of risk. Subjects of the study were probationers under supervision in Austin, Texas. Results indicated that the CMC performed far more satisfactorily than did the traditional instrument. The CMC was found to be particularly successful in minimizing false positives (i.e., probationers incorrectly predicted to be high risks). The results suggest that offender risk assessment instruments of a national scope are possible. Implications for assessment and probation supervision practices are considered.