A View of the Future: The Effect of Policy on Prison Population Growth

Abstract

The prison population in Illinois is projected to increase from over 28,000 to nearly 45,400 by the year 2000. It will cost $1.2 billion for construction just to maintain prison crowding at 68% double and multicelling. This article examines the factors driving this growth, provides a projection of the future prison population levels, and simulates a variety of policy options that could lower the projections. This approach illustrates the usefulness of simulation models in showing decision makers the futures they may create.