Abstract
Six pieces of evidence are presented to advocate the use of prediction procedures as a means of studying the effectiveness of any correctional agency's decisions and operations. It is main tained that (1) experience is not enough, and systematic self- study is essential to correctional effectiveness; (2) correctional agencies are spending too much money for too little return; (3) prediction devices do hold up; (4) correctional programs help some offenders but probably harm others; (5) correctional agencies waste programs on "good risks"; and (6) subjective de cisions as well as statistical formulas need study. Prediction procedures are advocated as aids in making correctional evalua tions and in developing appropriate classification systems.
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