The Delinquent Face of Uncertainty: LGBTQ-Targeted Crimes Amidst Global Pandemics

Abstract

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer (LGBTQ) individuals remain disproportionately vulnerable to stigma, discrimination, and violence, especially during societal crises. This study investigates the asymmetric impact of pandemic uncertainty on LGBTQ-targeted crimes across ten countries: USA, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Australia, Spain, New Zealand, Sweden, and Italy. Using the Quantile-on-Quantile method, the study explores country-specific patterns and finds a strong positive association between pandemic-induced uncertainty and LGBTQ-targeted crimes in most selected countries, but the findings are asymmetric because the strength, and in some cases the direction, of the relationship shifts across uncertainty and crime intensity levels. Cross-country differences in asymmetry underscore the need for nuanced, context-specific policies targeting high-risk periods when uncertainty shocks drive the sharpest increases in victimization.