Building on research by Rosenfeld et al., citylevel random coefficients panel models reveal a significant association between inflation and homicide rates that is only partially mediated by acquisitive crime. Inflation is more strongly associated with homicide rates in more disadvantaged cities. The impact of inflation on public safety should be considered when setting and evaluating economic policy. Future research should address the mechanisms, in addition to acquisitive crime, that link homicide and inflation.
AgnewR. (2006). Pressured into crime: An overview of general strain theory. Oxford University Press.
2.
AllenR.C. (1996). Socioeconomic conditions and property crime. The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 55, 293–308.
3.
AllisonP. D. (2009). Fixed-effects regression models. SAGE.
4.
BallerR. D.MessnerS. F.AnselinL.DeaneG. (2002). The interchangeability of homicide data sources: As spatial analytical perspective. Homicide Studies, 6, 211–227.
5.
BaronR. M.KennyD. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1173–1182.
6.
CecchettiS. G.MarkN. C.SonoraR. J. (2002). Price index convergence among United States cities. International Economic Review, 43, 1081–1099.
7.
ClarkG. L. (1984). Does inflation vary between cities?Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 16, 513–527.
8.
CohenL. E.FelsonM. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44, 588–607.
9.
CookP. J. (2015). Will the current crisis in police legitimacy increase crime? Research offers a way forward. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 16, 71–74.
10.
FischerD. H. (1996). The great wave: Price revolutions and the rhythm of history. Oxford University Press.
11.
GreeneW. H. (2012). Econometric analysis (7th ed.). Prentice Hall.
HayesA. F. (2013). Introduction to mediation, moderation, and conditional process analysis. Guilford.
14.
JoseP. (2013). Doing statistical mediation and moderation. Guildford.
15.
KaneR. J. (2005). Compromised police legitimacy as a predictor of violent crime in structurally disadvantaged communities. Criminology, 43, 469–498.
16.
LaFreeG. (1998). Losing legitimacy: Street crime and the decline of social institutions in America. Westview.
17.
LaFreeG.DrassK. A. (1996). The effect of changes in intraracial income inequality and educational attainment on changes in arrest rates for African Americans and whites, 1957 to 1990. American Sociological Review, 61, 614–634.
18.
LauritsenJ. L.CorkD. L. (2016). Modernizing crime statistics: Report 1 – Defining and classifying crime. National Academies Press.
19.
LauritsenJ. L.CorkD. L. (2018). Modernizing crime statistics: Report 2 – New systems for measuring crime. National Academies Press.
20.
LauritsenJ. L.RezeyM. L.HeimerK. (2016). When choice of data matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime trends, 1973–2012. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32, 335–355.
21.
MacKinnonD.FairchildA.FritzM. (2007). Mediation analysis. Annual Review of Psychology, 58, 593–614.
22.
McCallP. L.LandK. C.ParkerK. F. (2010). An empirical assessment of what we know about structural covariates of homicide rates: A return to a classic 20 years later. Homicide Studies, 14, 219–243.
23.
MessnerS. F.RosenfeldR.KarstedtS. (2013). Social institutions and crime. In CullenFrancis TWilcoxPAMELA (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of criminological theory (pp. 405–423). Oxford University Press.
24.
NivetteA. (2014). Legitimacy and crime: Theorizing the role of the state in cross-national criminological theory. Theoretical Criminology, 18, 93–111.
25.
NunleyJ. M.SternM. L.SealsR. A.ZietzJ. (2016). The impact of inflation on property crime. Contemporary Economic Policy, 34, 483–499.
26.
OuseyG. C.KubrinC. E. (2018). Immigration and crime: Assessing a contentious issue. Annual Review of Criminology, 1, 63–84.
RalstonR. W. (1999). Economy and race: Interactive determinants of property crime in the United States, 1958-1995. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 58, 405–434.
29.
RiedelM. (1999). Sources of homicide data: A review and comparison. In Dwayne SmithM.MargaretA. Z. (Eds.), Homicide: A sourcebook of social research (pp. 75–95). SAGE.
30.
RosenfeldR. (2009). Crime is the problem: Homicide, acquisitive crime, and economic conditions. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 25, 287–306.
31.
RosenfeldR. (2014). Crime and inflation in cross-national perspective. Crime and Justice, 43, 341–366.
32.
RosenfeldR. (2016). Documenting and explaining the 2015 homicide rise: Research directions (NCJ 249895). National Institute of Justice, US Department of Justice.
33.
RosenfeldR.LevinA. (2016). Acquisitive crime and inflation in the United States: 1960–2012. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32, 427–447.
34.
RosenfeldR.VogelM.McCuddyT. (2019). Crime and inflation in U. S. cities. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 35, 195–210.
35.
RothR. (2009). American homicide. Harvard University Press.
36.
SachsJ. D. Ed. (1989). Developing country debt and the world economy. University of Chicago Press.
37.
SantosM.TestaA.WeissD. B. (2021). Inflation and cross-national homicide: Assessing nonlinear and moderation effects across 65 countries, 1965–2015. International Criminal Justice Review, 31, 122–139. https://doi.org/10.1177/1057567720981624
38.
SwamyP. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38, 311–323.
39.
Tcherni-BuzzeoM. (2019). The “great American crime decline”: Possible explanations. In KrohnM. D.HendrixN.Penly HallG.LizotteA. J. (Eds.), Handbook on crime and deviance (2nd ed.) (pp. 309–335). Springer.
40.
TomaskyM. (2019, February3). The real legacy of the 1970s. New York Times.
41.
TylerT.FaganJ. (2008). Legitimacy and cooperation: Why do people help the police fight crime in their communities?Ohio State Journal of Criminal Law, 6, 231–275.
42.
VenkateshS. A. (2006). Off the books: The underground economy of the urban poor. Harvard University Press.
43.
WebbS. B. (1989). Hyperinflation and stabilization in Weimar Germany. Oxford University Press.
WiersemaB.LoftinC.McDowallD. (2000). A comparison of supplementary homicide reports and National Vital Statistics System homicide estimates for U.S. counties. Homicide Studies, 4, 317–340.
46.
ZhaoX.LynchJ. G.Jr.ChenQ. (2010). Reconsidering Baron and Kenny: Myths and truths about mediation analysis. Journal of Consumer Research, 37, 197–206.
47.
ZimringF. E. (2006). The Great American crime decline. Oxford University Press.
48.
ZimringF. E.HawkinsG. (1997). Crime is not the problem: Lethal violence in America. Oxford University Press.
