A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of Home Vacancy on Robbery and Burglary Rates During the U.S. Housing Crisis,2005-2009

Abstract

The growing empirical literature on the effects on crime of the recent housing crisis in the United States provides inconsistent results for a direct effect. Furthermore, no longitudinal studies examine the association between home vacancy and crime during the U.S. housing crisis. To address this question, we used a sample of 126 major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) within the United States for the period 2005-2009 and estimated random and fixed effects models. Results indicated that increasing rates of home vacancy during the housing crisis were significantly associated with burglary rates within and between MSAs but had no association with robbery rates after controlling for other important crime covariates. We discuss the theoretical and methodological implications of these findings.