Population Changes and Restaurant Success

Abstract

Compiling 15 years of data from Restaurant Business magazine's annual survey of restaurant growth provides a time-series of data regarding how restaurants have fared in the United States. By comparing those data with changes in population by region (or other geographical division), a restaurant operator can get a sense of where opportunities exist and where markets are saturated. Changes in population and restaurant growth analyzed by region show how the technique can be applied, with changes made especially clear when mapped using graphic-information software. The comparison shows, for instance, that the double-digit growth of population in the Pacific and Mountain regions was not accompanied by a similar growth in restaurant sales. In fact, residents in those regions showed less propensity to eat in a restaurant than the relatively slowgrowing eastern and central regions. The least saturated restaurant markets, considering the population growth, seem to be in the southern regions. Regional analysis provides only a broad-brush picture of restaurant changes. Focusing on individual metropolitan areas would give a more complete picture.