Hotel Revenue-management Forecasting

Abstract

Despite hotel revenue managers’ increasing reliance on computers, human judgment is still indispensable. A study of fifty-seven experienced revenue managers found that the nature of the user interface influenced the way the revenue managers adjusted the computers’ forecasts—even though the managers were all given the same predictions regardless of the interface. The managers were divided into four groups of four possible interface designs they experienced. Those with a deliberate computer and no chart made the smallest volume of adjustments to the computer’s forecast, about half that of the managers using a speedy computer and a chart. That group was followed by those with a speedy computer and no chart. The managers with a slow computer and an interactive chart made the highest volume of adjustments. Further research should indicate the exact nature of the interface’s influence on human judgment.