The Foreign Policies of the Baltic States: Interwar Years and Restoration

Abstract

The article surveys and analyzes the foreign policies and relevant domestic political conditions of the Baltic states since 1918, emphasizing the period after 11 March 1990. The general argument is that small states located near a great power can choose between alliance with their more powerful neighbor, alliance with his chief rival, or some kind of neutrality. Above all, rim states must pay attention to great-power diplomacy. In the interwar years none of the Baltic states seemed to appreciate that their situation necessitated such thinking and such choices. None used the Western powers to counter-balance the Soviet Union or Germany. Only Lithuania drew on the Soviet Union as a partner. A policy of neutrality remained untried. Between the wars, what governed their foreign policies, besides their lack of appreciation of great power politics, was a concentration on their own local affairs. After March 1990, an `interregnum period' followed, with internal strife about the proper direction of foreign policy. Four phases of alternating confrontation and negotiation characterized Moscow-Baltic relations in the period up to the aborted coup. The achievement of independence in September 1991 brought a concentration on domestic concerns. Today the unintegrated Russian-speaking and Polish minorities contribute to domestic instability, which easily spills over into foreign affairs. The last section discusses the Baltic states' security policies and possible future security arrangements, accentuating the need for a subregional solution including all coastal states on the Baltic Sea.