Defense without Threat? The Future of Norwegian Military Spending

Abstract

World War II represents a turning-point in Norwegian military spending. In the sixty years before the war, military spending varied between 1 and 2% of the national product; in the postwar period it has hovered around 3%. Even so, the military sector is a very limited share of the economy. Studies of the economic consequences of disarmament indicate that the national effects are likely to be small and fairly easily compensated. At the local level, particularly in Northern Norway, adjustment is likely to be more serious. With the demise of the East-West conflict it is, in fact, very likely that military spending will decrease in real terms. The new threat scenarios — ethnic, religious and national conflicts in the Balkans and in the Caucasus or Moslem fundamentalism in the Middle East — have little escalatory potential and are unlikely to affect Northern Europe. There remains the `uncertainty scenario', linked to the uncertainties concerning Russia's political future. The author argues that this scenario is unlikely to sustain continued high military expenditure against the pressures of competing civilian priorities.