Military Defence in Denmark: Expenditures and Conversion Problems

Abstract

Denmark was heavily militarized until the Napoleonic wars. After heavy territorial losses to Sweden in 1814 and to Prussia in 1864, it concluded that only the Copenhagen area could be defended and spent much on fortifications there before World War I. The interwar period combined isolated neutrality with a low Danish military profile (about 1% of GNP); after the German occupation during World War II it joined NATO and rearmed. Its arms expenditures have quadrupled in absolute terms since about 1950, but have receded from about 3 to about 2% of GNP. This rearmament has been at about NATO pace and slightly slower than European NATO. It also indicates that Denmark has taken a more relaxed view since the 1960s than Norway and Finland. If military expenditures are reduced, the conversion problems will primarily concern manpower: some 40,000 persons are directly employed by the defence ministry. A reduction of some 3% per annum could be absorbed without anybody losing employment, but a slower reduction might be called for to avoid demographical problems in the armed forces. In addition, the closing of air and naval bases and regiments would create local problems. Most defence materiel is imported; domestic orders — and some compensation purchases linked to import — employ some 5,000 persons in Denmark. Lost orders would normally create conversion problems. Some 5,000 additional persons produce goods and services to the ministry other than `defence materiel proper' (construction, maintenance, etc.). There would often be an alternative civilian market, but closing major bases down may in some cases make the local market too small to absorb the lost military demand.