Petersen, I. D. The World War Pattern: Outbreak of International Wars (1823-1989) as Stochastic Diffusion Processes. Cooperation and Conflict, XXVI, 1991, 1-20. This article describes outbreak of international wars in the period 1823-1989 as a sequential series of stochastic diffusion processes. These processes are of two types: Processes of decreasing probability of international war as a function of time and processes of increasing probability of international war as a function of time. Both types are characterized by having in all three different levels of intensity: fast, moderately fast or slow. It is hypothesized that they are conditioned by changing states of the international system/world system. Superimposed on these basic diffusion processes, however, is another pattern of diffusion (somewhat reminiscent of an epidemiological model), occurring twice, leading up to both World Wars. This pattern could also be found in a somewhat truncated form in the first half of the 19th century and in the period after the Second World War. In both cases, lesser wars seem to have taken the place of real world wars.
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