Behind the Submarine Crisis: Evolution of the Swedish Defence Doctrine and Soviet War Planning

Abstract

Agrell, W. Behind the Submarine Crisis: Evolution of the Swedish Defence Doctrine and Soviet War Planning. Cooperation and Conflict, XXI, 1986, 197-217.

In the 1980s Sweden has experienced a number of serious incidents involving foreign submarines. This 'submarine crisis' has affected Swedish foreign policy and Swedish- Soviet relations, but also the relevance of the defence policy and the flexibility of long- term planning. The submarine crisis can thus be regarded as a test of vital elements in policy and planning. Historically, the Swedish defence doctrine in the post-war period has been characterized by considerable inertia, only giving way to strong pressure from the formal or informal power-groups controlling various aspects of defence policy. New planning procedures have not made the system more sensitive to changes in the external premisses. A close analysis of alien underwater activity in Swedish waters indicates a turning point in the latter half of the 1970s with large coordinated penetrations being carried out deep into the archipelagoes. This indicates a major shift in Soviet war planning concerning Scandinavia, especially concerning operations against Sweden, on the outbreak of a conflict. Thus, the submarine crisis reveals a gap between the strategic assumptions forming the intellectual basis of the Swedish defence doctrine and the pattern in Soviet military activity and military preparations. The reaction of the Swedish planning system, and the historical experi ences lead, however, to the conclusion that presently there are no internal conditions for a change in the doctrine.