Security Dilemmas in Scandinavia. Evaporated Nuclear Options and Indigenous Conventional Capabilities

Abstract

'Nordic stability' constitutes a political dissuasion against increased superpower involvement. So long as nuclear weapons have not been used, a conventional area denial capability provides Sweden the ability to withstand nuclear blackmail. A mix of deterrence and assurances vis-à-vis the Soviet Union characterizes Danish and Norwegian security policies. The evaporation of Norwegian and Danish nuclear options has resulted in a complex defence posture of 'maybe-no-first-use' of tactical nuclear weapons with the goal of raising the nuclear threshold. This has enhanced Finnish security by diminishing the possibility that nuclear weapons would be deployed in areas adjacent to the Soviet north-west. The basic challenge of Finnish security policy is to avoid a conflict of interests with her superpower neighbour. It is vital for Finland that Moscow's 'Swedish assumption' does not change.