Détente and Crisis 1

Abstract

Can a relationship of détente survive a crisis? This question is addressed as a problem of foreign policy stability. A framework of analysis is offered focusing on a number of factors in domestic politics, belief systems and international relations which may function as stabilizers of foreign policy, including détente policy, in times of crisis. It is emphasized that the protection of détente can be rendered difficult by the mechanism of negative interconnections. The slow pace of détente stabilization is another difficulty. Moreover, the stabilization of détente itself may be self-defeating by undermining the credibility of deterrence. The empirical illustration of these mechanisms has to do with Soviet–German relations during the Polish crisis. It is clear that a measure of détente survived the crisis. Even though it is difficult to estimate the exact amount of stress the Polish crisis created, it remains possible that even relatively limited stabilization of détente may have significant effects.