Prediction on the Basis of Official Doctrines

Abstract

Mouritzen, H. Prediction on the Basis of Official Doctrines. Cooperation and Conflict, XVI, 1981, 25-38.

A concrete prediction (and explanation) is offered concerning the degree of value-pro motion in Danish foreign policy in the future (i.e., how moralizing is it likely to be?) The various building-blocks of this prediction are examined and discussed, specifically as regards the respective contributions of synchronic and diachronic theoretical perspectives. One particular diachronic perspective is discussed at some length, that of treating official foreign policy doctrines as a restriction on future foreign policy. The Swedish 'Midsummer Crisis' of 1941 is used as a post-dictive 'test'. The risk of committing doctrine reification when evaluating the perspective is discussed; a risk that springs from the temptation of confusing analytically different perspectives on official doctrines.