Studying Foreign Policy Prediction: Methodological Notes

Abstract

Hörberg, Th. Studying Foreign Policy Prediction: Methodological Notes. Cooperation and Conflict, XVI, 1981, 19-24.

Studying the foreign policy prediction-making of political actors is a fairly new branch of political science. The development of methods for this type of studies is still in its infancy. This article contains a discussion of the basis for prediction-making, of a method for identifying predictions, and of problems concerning predictions which are given no or only partial expression.